Autumn Invitational - Day 4 (5/13) - Town Wins!

Hippolytus · November 25, 2020, 9:00pm

It’s like one of those shows where the killer gives the detectives a message with the names of their victims.

Marshal and Vulgard

M + V

Michelle Visage

Therefore the killer likes Ru Paul’s Dragrace.

orangeandblack5 · November 25, 2020, 9:01pm

Gonna drive home now

See y’all

Hippolytus · November 25, 2020, 9:02pm

So the killer is someone sassy and or camp and or a woman

Solic · November 25, 2020, 9:03pm

Arete:

Marshal:

Town:

Solic

Hippo

Ici

Mist

Sulit

Vul

Cent

Dat

Arete

Geyde

Kat

Orange

ama

IIRC this is from his early fake readlist so I’m not going to read too much into Mist’s placement given that … the reads were fake …

Marshal:

i think mists reason for voting me is bad and fake

who agrees

raise your hands

Marshal was pushing on Mist really early on, pretty sure this was one of the earliest reasons people had for making a serious push on her, bussing isn’t outside of Marshal’s wolfrange but I think it would be ~suboptimal~ for him to lead the charge against her on D1

Marshal:

People who have meta tells are are probably not that:

Mist

Dat

Hippo(eh)

Gg

continuing to lead the push on Mist, again I’m pretty sure she wasn’t coming under much pressure at this point which makes me feel a little better about the push not being a bus

Marshal:

mist ~lockwolf welcome to the thunderdome

think the second half of this is unlikely to be distancing, I could see W!Marshal calling a partner lockwolf if he was bussing them since his busses tend to lack nuance but I don’t think he would explicitly call for a thunderdome like this, particularly since he wasn’t particularly townread either – like, this is the sort of thing that easily could have backfired on W!Marshal and gotten him exe’d

sidenote I think that if Marshal’s plan were ‘hardbus Mist to get into the towncore then deepwolf to endgame’ he would have tried harder to be townread in the early game, which is another thing that makes me think he probably wasn’t bussing

Marshal:

Below null:

DatBird

Mistyx

continuing to dunk on Mist

not sure there’s much point in quoting every post where he does it? ‘wow this is another post in which he calls the flipped wolf a wolf, amazing’

Marshal:

im parity cop and i have a difference between myself and mist

(her post-opener posts are all underwhelming)

honestly the level of confidence he displayed so early on for relatively thin reasons is starting to make me slightly scared that it was a bus? but I still don’t really think Marshal’s approach makes much sense if he was bussing

Marshal:

its literally a tonal read that her posts lack the villa!mist spark that I think i’ve learned to identify

Take for example pantheon mash (last game we villaged together)

She was just

instantly easily identifiable by how she constantly spat out reads with good logical basis in a natural way

here it all feels

just rlly underwhelming and not that

~lockwolf was a kneejerk reaction but I think she is mafia

think him softening his read on her here is unlikely to come from scum, if he were scum with TMI that she were scum I don’t think he would have felt the need to add the qualifier, I think that’s more likely to come from wrong town

Marshal:

that said I actually want to give mist/dat room even though I think both of them have Easily Identifiable Townmetas™ and are not in them

because its exactly possible they are just being thrown off

I don’t think pressure is needed to read either of their slots.

on its own this post is kind of ehhhh but I think in context it doesn’t reallllly make sense in a W!Marshal world? like in a W!Marshal world his strategy was basically ‘deathtunnel Mist for towncred’ and this doesn’t really fit into a strategy like that at all which makes me think that he probably wasn’t bussing

Marshal:

when I die don’t go in lylo with an underwhelming mist and an underwhelming dat and scratch your heads at where the wolves cld possibly be and then tinfoil sulit and exe her pls

continuing to dunk on Mist

Marshal:

/vote Mistyx

@katze @Mistyx lets quickhammer before the village can react

kiinda think the pushing for a quickhammer is a slightly good look? like technically it could be performative distancing but sort of with Hippo I think him specifically pinging people (looking at kat here, not Mist) to try to get them to help is a somewhat good look

don’t feel as strongly about this as I do with the Hippo read

Marshal:

waiting for the mist parity cop flip tbqh

lol

Marshal:

what we should all do is react in ways that exactly indicates our roles to mist’s claim

thinking this is probably a good look since he’s actively trying to shut down role spew from Mist’s claim, which would defeat most of the point of scum Mist claiming PR

could technically be for towncred but I think the way he expressed it through sarcasm rather than being like ‘wtf guys! it is very important that we not say anything that might spew our roles! haha…’ makes it more likely to be a genuine sentiment rather than a bid for cred

Marshal:

idgaf if pr claim mistyx shld die because shes mafia

Marshal:

mist isn’t town

she’s so thunderously calm and relaxed right now

Marshal:

how much do i need to beat up mists chances of living 2 get into towncore

Marshal:

I mean like

we dont have to kill mist because she’s a wolf PR at worst (which only serve to counter the town PRs) and if wolves leave her alive thats leaving a town PR alive to do PR things

however I am like 97.9999% confident in her being mafia so I am more than willing 2 go the “fuck it” route and badoink her anyways

and him continuing to push for her to die rather than waiting for a CC is ?probably? a good look since it would, again, undermine literally the entire point of making this play as mafia

don’t want to 100 percent count on it since the ‘beat up Mist’s chances of living’ post almost feels like TMI that she’s flipping scum but given the rest of his Iso I can buy that he was just really confident in Mist W

Marshal:

now im not saying i’m either a protective that cannot spawn with JK or a class that spaws with 3 or higher, but I am saying to vote mistyx for vbucks

Marshal:

and of course I am not hard claiming

I might not die because i’m protected by virtue of being marshal

but what I am saying is that I am trying to move more votes in the direction of the mist subtly for whatever reason

I think him picking up on the fact that I was CCing Mist and trying to cover for her is super villagery, I don’t think he would have thought to do something like that as scum

Conclusions

Overall, I think Marshal is very unlikely to be W/W with Mist. He spent the entirety of D1 dunking on her, and while hardbussing isn’t outside of his scumrange the rest of his play on D1 makes me think it’s unlikely that he was bussing, and some of his approach to Mist would be really dumb as scum.

I didn’t say it before since I thought they were just obvi PR (lol my attention this game), but regardless of everything I’ll stick with overnight wall post including lengthy arguments over whoever had died is a good look, because people are lazy and would include less. Maybe this is a bad take for specifically Arete…, but I still townread them for prior stuff, so

Oh and there is also them aiming at Dat with that wallpost, while they couldn’t necessarily have predicted that Dat would have been vigged.

Hippolytus · November 25, 2020, 9:03pm

Actually I like ru Paul’s drag race and dont fit those so my stereotyping failed me

sulit · November 25, 2020, 9:05pm

town

scum

sulit · November 25, 2020, 9:06pm

i have been pretty low effort this game because d1 i had soccer tournament for basically whole day

and was on zoom d2

sulit · November 25, 2020, 9:08pm

why is hippo not

scum

katze · November 25, 2020, 9:14pm

i cant make this quote not break so weh

[quote=“Arete, post:2801, topic:84772”]
Centuries

Centuries:

Mistyx:

@Centuries what’s your read on katze so far
[/quote]

line between kat being scum actually openwolfing and them being legit trolling town is rather thin

i think that

fuck kat and also

closer to wolf than to town but like, not that much

First interaction I could find between the two of them, the whole ‘ping a wolfmate in the thread and ask a very generic question’ is definitely something I’ve done before but it’s not damning on its own.

Centuries:

deep wolf conroy was deep

deep wolf kat wont be deep

this is technically an interaction in the sense that it was a reply to Mist

quoting it for the sake of completeness but this really isn’t moving the needle for me one way or another

Centuries:

SHUT THE FRICK UP MIST

thanks

I guess if I squint Centuries yelling at Mist makes them slightly less likely to be W/W??

Centuries:

I agree with Mist concerning how Orange feels similar to his play in Umineko, not that I wanted to remember that game, I’ve never seen scum Orange iirc so I don’t know how different he is as scum, > rand v aswell

another ‘this is technically an interaction’ post

Centuries:

W leaning

Mist (pr claim? but cc’d? idk you guys are pushing her not me)

Quoting this even though it’s technically after Mist started openwolfing because I do actually think it’s AI, I think Conroy is ?probably? telling the truth here about not realizing that Mist was an outed wolf (not sure?) and I think Mist’s partners would have realized that she was an outed wolf, like, unless this is basically the worst wolf team ever it’s the sort of thing that would have come up in scum chat?? so this interaction makes me feel better about Conroy

Conclusions

There’s nothing that makes them 100 percent not W/W and a couple of their earlier interactions are a little but there are a few interactions that make me think they’re definitely less likely to be W/W, thinking I don’t really want to go there at this point

hmmst

Arete · November 25, 2020, 9:18pm

I mean

I thought he looked okay from Mist interactions

then I wrote a wallpost and when I finished the wallpost everyone was saying that he’d conceded

as it turns out people giving up and admitting they’re scum is the sort of thing that makes me think they’re scum

(to be fair to Conroy now that I’ve actually read the messages in the middle they were way less concede-y than people made it sound)

Arete · November 25, 2020, 9:19pm

I thought his interactions with Mist pointed to him not having TMI that Mist was scum

katze · November 25, 2020, 9:19pm

compared to hydra game 3 where boknows “openwolfed” as V, you basically shut down anything implying conroy could ever be a villager

i could provide screenshots of our hydra chat to prove this claim but you were still making reads on BK112 after they openwolfed, despite us going into D2 with them as our top scumread

in this game you went into D2 with a “potentially not W/W with the flipped wolf, wouldnt kill today” read on conroy and… you just

destroyed him

katze · November 25, 2020, 9:20pm

despite not even knowing for sure if they openwolfed you never actually reevaluated once

Solic · November 25, 2020, 9:20pm

I’m just really annoyed they self-hammered tbh. I mean… I might have had a part in it, but interrogating is just literally how I find alignment sometimes… They actually gave me some towny pings near the end, but I just wanted him to pick a direction to go into.

Geyde · November 25, 2020, 9:20pm

Interactions that don’t make sense for w/w (not stupid haha he pushed a wolf lock town, but not being on same wavelength as w which is a very big not w/w tell)
Mist’s play makes no sense if Hippo is w and is borderline gamethrowing

katze · November 25, 2020, 9:21pm

okay can you explain how you’re going this far

Geyde · November 25, 2020, 9:21pm

Ici explained it and I don’t think he’s wrong

katze · November 25, 2020, 9:21pm

why didn’t you read them like, at the time???

what

Geyde · November 25, 2020, 9:22pm

Killing Conroy was a power move

katze · November 25, 2020, 9:23pm

yes but aretes treatment of conroy on D2 is actually fucking terrible and the fact that we had a very similar situation in our hydra game where they actually evaluated it closer is like

?