Autumn Invitational - Day 4 (5/13) - Town Wins!

i see viewpoint

i don’t agree for reasons

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if we assume the pr claim was to bait out a cc then marshal was doing everything in his power to prevent it from happening

i think marhsal is V but is not spewed V

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What do you think the chances are that Mist claimed a role she knew to be plausible based on the number of PRs in the vain attempt that it’d save her?

mathematically D6 has 3 town PRs like, a vast majority of the time

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Which appears to be what’s happening here. Doing the calculations, JK can only rand if there are 2 or 3 PRs, and the 2-PR timeline there is exceptionally unlikely.

This mechanical spec is pointless but it makes me feel good and smart, and I read better when I’m more confident, so :joy_cat:

I’m going to pitch in here by saying that Solic is pretty obviously village here, although you can’t trust me after my Mist read was wrong.

as in, there are 216 possible rolls

exactly 1 results in a single PR (6I)
im too lazy to math it out but i think less than 20 result in 2 PRs

which means theres a ballpark ~90% chance theres 3 town PRs, except with how the rolls are weighted it could be a bit different but its still very high

and likely very obvious by D2

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dont strongly agree

:joy_cat:

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i’m tempted to pull a katze and coerce icibalus to hammer mistyx alongside me

can you let me finish my legacy post first

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yeah but you’re not an alpha gamer like me who actually has significant meta experience with him
generally Solic posting any kind of good take makes him almost certainly vz

only doing that if we time the move exactly as kat is about to post their legacy wall :joy_cat:

i like this read

like, Solic’s datbird take was legitimately strong in a way that he probably doesn’t post when w, since it’s in his benefit to capitalise on his reputation of disagreeing with people on reads when w- that was his exact plan with orange pre-rerand.

I’m not clearing him but he’s very very likely to be v.

that would be epic

this is why i think europe was a mistake

not as much of a mistake as anime was but still up there

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kat isn’t dying tonight though