Final Vote Count
| Accused | Voters | Number |
|---|---|---|
| Mistyx | sulit, Geyde, Arete, Mistyx, Vulgard, Marshal, Hippoyeetus | 7/7 |
| Hippoyeetus | DatBird | 1/7 |
| Centuries | orangeandblack5 | 1/7 |
| katze | Centuries | 1/7 |
| orangeandblack5 | Solic | 1/7 |
| Not voting | katze, Icibalus | 2 |
If there are any errors with the VC, you have 5 minutes to DM me.
Mistyx has been eliminated! They wereā¦
Sugar Maple (Acer saccharum)
Mafia Goon
You are a Mafia Goon. You share a 24/7 private chat with your fellow members of the Mafia. Each night, the Mafia must kill a player outside your faction.
Reach parity with the Town
Night starts, and will end 2020-11-24T16:45:00Z. Actions are locked an hour before this.
Reminder that Day 2 will be extended by 24 hours. Happy turkey day.
Threadmarks have been added to OP, and playerlist has been updated with flips.
End of Day 1 Flavor
āFinallyā¦ā
Archibald huffed as he escaped the final foothold and steadied himself on the rugged cliff that overlooked the park. In front of him, a sea of trees spanned for miles, until it met with the distant village that he called home. Where the path began, the trees grew in a spiral pattern; a maelstrom of greens below the deep grey autumn sky. The forest was a goldmine for hardwood, and he knew the trails like the back of his hand. His motherās woodworking business had allowed them to live in such a beautiful area, and though his job as her assistant was sometimes demanding, this view was something he wouldnāt give up for the world.
He wasnāt here to gawk in the forestās beauty, though. He had a job to do, and he had spent the last four hours climbing the steep cliffside just to accomplish it. Turning around, Archie grinned as he spotted his prize: the beautiful Acer saccharum. The blazing red maple sat in stark contrast against the shades of green that flanked it; an imposter within the city of oak and pine.
Felling a tree was a difficult task, and though the rest of his crew was on their way up the trail, he knew he needed to get to work before they reached him. The young man removed his rucksack from his back and placed it on the ground in front of the maple. Strapped to the front was a rusty lumber axe, which he promptly freed from its sheath. With his eyes, he traced a line across the body of the tree. The task was second nature, and quickly enough, he found precisely where heād land the first blow.
Tightening his grip on the handle, the young man heaved the axe into the air and swung it towards the tree with force. The blade connected as a cloud of bark and dust erupted from the trunk, signifying a successful opening cut. Normally, he would be happy to have hit his mark on the first try, but something was off, and Archie knew it; the head of his axe was stuck in the tree. How could he have swung so hard that it got lodged in the trunk? Nothing like this had ever happened to him before.
With all the strength in his body, Archibald ripped the axe from the trunk, and as the blade slid free, his question was answered. A heavy stream of liquid gushed from the wood. Though it was clear as water, the liquid had a slimy texture and a sour smell. Within seconds, the spout had dissipated into a steady drip, and Archibald stared in amazement. Never in his life had he seen something so bizarre.
Itās almost as if the tree was speaking to him.
Itās almost as if it wasā¦ crying.
@DatBird has died. He was:
Shumard Oak (Quercus shumardii)
Mafia Role Cop
You are a Mafia Role Cop. You share a 24/7 private chat with your fellow members of the Mafia. Each night, the Mafia must kill a player outside your faction.
Each night, select a player. You will learn the playerās role.
Reach parity with the Town
@Marshal has died. He was:
Day 2 begins and will end at 2020-11-27T16:45:00Z (as itās extended by 24 hours).
@Arete
@Centuries
@Geyde
@Hippolytus
@Icibalus
@katze
@orangeandblack5
@Solic
@sulit
@Vulgard
this is where i post a wall but honestly i didnt even bother thinking about the game for the past 24 hours
well I had a Prewrittenā¢ Areteā¢ Wallpostā¢ analyzing people for partner compatibility with Mist but itās kind of redundant now since my big takeaway was āDatbird probably wolf?ā
might as well post it anyway? some of my clears could in theory be useful
Alright, so overnight I went through everyoneās Iso and looked for whether they made sense to be scum with Mist. This mostly isnāt looking at whether theyāre villagery outside of that, just their interactions with her.
Also Iām only looking at things that happened before she started openwolfing, anything after that is basically WifoM.
Solic
Quoting this because itās technically about Mist, donāt think this is AI at all.
Light townlean on Mist. The reasoning is decent so Iām not going to be like āyeah this is lock W/W with Mist, only scum defend town,ā but itās definitely in ācould be compatibleā territory.
this fits with his previous read on Mist, at least, it doesnāt come totally out of the blue. Still makes me a little nervous.
donāt think we ever got an answer on whether he doesnāt hate the gamestate or whether he doesnāt hate Mistās posts
thatās all I could find, everything after that was post-Mist outing
Conclusion
overall, I canāt find anything to rule out Mist and Solic being W/W. I still find him independently mildly villagery, to be clear, just, if I look only at interactions a lot of them are kind of ehhhh.
Centuries
First interaction I could find between the two of them, the whole āping a wolfmate in the thread and ask a very generic questionā is definitely something Iāve done before but itās not damning on its own.
this is technically an interaction in the sense that it was a reply to Mist
quoting it for the sake of completeness but this really isnāt moving the needle for me one way or another
I guess if I squint Centuries yelling at Mist makes them slightly less likely to be W/W??
another āthis is technically an interactionā post
Quoting this even though itās technically after Mist started openwolfing because I do actually think itās AI, I think Conroy is ?probably? telling the truth here about not realizing that Mist was an outed wolf (not sure?) and I think Mistās partners would have realized that she was an outed wolf, like, unless this is basically the worst wolf team ever itās the sort of thing that would have come up in scum chat?? so this interaction makes me feel better about Conroy
Conclusions
Thereās nothing that makes them 100 percent not W/W and a couple of their earlier interactions are a little 
but there are a few interactions that make me think theyāre definitely less likely to be W/W, thinking I donāt really want to go there at this point
DatBird
technically mentions Mist, basically NAI for Bird
this kind of feels W/W, like heās trying to deflect responsibility for reading her/avoid reading her
I didnāt see anything like that about anyone else while I was reading (although to be fair I was mostly skimming) and as far as I can tell the entire reason why he asked about Mist in particular is that she pocketed him in RotK but itās not like sheās the only person whoās ever pocketed Dat
puts Marshal or Mist as her top execution choices, while not voting either of them. This feels pretty likely to be W/W distancing.
pretty sure this is about the least itās possible to say about Mist in this number of words, really not a fan of this. sorta like the one about where he asked how to read her, it feels like heās trying to avoid actually making a read on her
everything else is after Mist was outed
Conclusion
I think Dat and Mist have a lot of W/W compatibility, there are a lot of interactions in here that look kind of W/W and nothing that makes me think they canāt be partners. Would be happy to chop this today/tomorrow/I donāt know which word to use when Iām writing overnight/decent odds no one sees this anyway
Ici
not going to lie I considered just not doing this analysis at all because Ici is super villagery regardless of interactions and I donāt think he could fake that
this seems basically NAI
this isnāt great, and honestly the qualifier makes me feel worse about it? like without the qualifier itās a read thatās wrong and with the qualifier itās a read thatās wrong and a preliminary excuse for it being wrong, which can sometimes be a sign of TMI
this is technically a reply to Mist but I donāt really think itās AI
feel basically the same about this as I do about 729
and thatās it for things that happened before Mist was outed
Conclusions
If I ignored literally everything else Iciās slot has done Iād be like āyeah this seems like it could be W/Wā but, like, Iciās pretty easy to read in my experience minus the one time we misexeād him as IC and if I ā¦ donāt ignore everything else his slot has done ā¦ I think heās a villager
like interactions are bad but the rest of his posting seems ~fine
and now Iām like āwhy did I even bother to read through Iciās interactions with Mist if I was just going to ignore themā and itās like 3:11 AM and in hindsight I probably should have started this earlier
is anyone even still reading this far
Iām probably going to die N1 and this is going to go to waste anyway
anyways
Hippo
the snarky comment Hippo is responding to + Hippoās response calling her out for misrepping him doesnāt really feel W/W, obviously distancing is a thing but Mistās sarcasm here feels like a wolf talking to a villager
think this is unlikely to be W/W, specifically the part where he talks about pretending it was a typo if she flips town
it doesnāt feel like he has TMI that sheās going to flip scum and I donāt think he would think to add that part if he did
kinda think this is also not W/W, Mist was at L-2 at this point IIRC with Hippo pushing for a hammer, the pushing for a quickhammer could be performative but I donāt think him actively trying to get Mist onto L-1 is performative, Iām assuming the PR claim was at least semi-planned and if Hippoās thing had worked he would have basically been forced to hammer her, which would prevent a PR claim
this is sort of, like, Iām questioning whether a wolf would write this if their plan was to bus their partner and then coast on the cred until endgame and I think the answer is ānoā
this is another post where, like, I absolutely believe a wolf would have the thought about being associated with them but I think probably they wouldnāt post it in the game thread
I remember hating this when I first saw it, to be fair to Hippo part of that was that I was kind of worried that we were headed for a Game 2 repeat but I remember thinking that if Mist did flip Mafia it kind of looked like TMI
he had an explanation later for how he didnāt see Mistās PR claim but he didnāt actually unvote even after he saw it so Iām still kind of at āyeah this could be TMIā
orange had a take that it would be kind of weird to vote Mist right after she claimed PR without even waiting for a CC, Iām not totally sure if I buy it given that I think most people wouldnāt immediately hammer her unless they were actually a conflicting PR and if the conflicting PR outs by quickhammering Mist that still outs them to the wolves
think thatās it before Mist started openwolfing
Conclusions
Overall I think this is a pretty good look for Hippo, even if he wasnāt one of the strongest pushers on Mist there are a couple interactions that donāt really feel W/W and a bunch of things in here that make me think Hippo didnāt have TMI on Mistās alignment, the only thing that I could really see as W/W is Hippo voting Mist right after she claimed and never seeming to really even question whether or not Mistās claim was real. I think itās really unlikely Hippo was W/W with Mist.
sulit + Vul
yeah screw this itās past 3:30 AM and I townread them both pretty strongly anyways
Geyde
technically an interaction, not really AI
this isnāt technically a read on Mist but given that Mist was in fact a wolf and not really trying this argument is sort of making me mrrrrr
these are all pretty softball questions to Mist, I feel like a lot of his questions had more meat to them
edit: scrolling down a bit thatās not 100 percent true, he has some similarly softbally questions to Dat e.g. in 1551
technically about Mist but basically NAI
vote on Mist is probably a slightly good look, I checked and he was a relatively early vote on her, the next votecount I can find is this one:
where heās the second vote. Not willing to 100 percent clear him because from what Iāve seen heās pretty willing to bus as scum but I do think itās a good look.
highkey feels like a rule of 3 given that I think Hippo and Marshal are both very likely V
dislike this argument a lot given Mistās flip
maybe itās just that I have TMI on my alignment but given that we know the first person in immediate PoE was a wolf who was not trying particularly hard Geyde being like āwhat if the PoE is wrong?? letās kill Arete, also I will not comment on Mistās alignment while making this argumentā feels like heās trying to find an alternative to Mist while also softdefending her by suggesting that wolves would need to tryhard
think this could go either way (n.b. this is before Mist outed)
the one thing I can confidently say about it is that itās not W/V with Geyde as the wolf but we already knew that from Mist flipping scum so
ok Iām lazy so Iām not going to go figure out where this should go (I missed this the first time but Geyde quotes it later in his Iso) but I donāt think this is out of the realm of distancing
everything after that is post-Mist outing
sidenote this isnāt really relevant to Mist interactions but Iām not a fan of Geydeās response to my pressure on him, like, he jumps straight to accusing me of pushing on him in bad faith
Conclusions
thereās like one thing that I think is a slightly good look (him voting Mist early on) and a few things that I think are pretty bad looks here, I think overall Geyde has a lot of potential to be a Mist partner and him voting Mist early isnāt enough to outweigh that
IIRC this is from his early fake readlist so Iām not going to read too much into Mistās placement given that ā¦ the reads were fake ā¦
Marshal was pushing on Mist really early on, pretty sure this was one of the earliest reasons people had for making a serious push on her, bussing isnāt outside of Marshalās wolfrange but I think it would be ~suboptimal~ for him to lead the charge against her on D1
continuing to lead the push on Mist, again Iām pretty sure she wasnāt coming under much pressure at this point which makes me feel a little better about the push not being a bus
think the second half of this is unlikely to be distancing, I could see W!Marshal calling a partner lockwolf if he was bussing them since his busses tend to lack nuance but I donāt think he would explicitly call for a thunderdome like this, particularly since he wasnāt particularly townread either ā like, this is the sort of thing that easily could have backfired on W!Marshal and gotten him exeād
sidenote I think that if Marshalās plan were āhardbus Mist to get into the towncore then deepwolf to endgameā he would have tried harder to be townread in the early game, which is another thing that makes me think he probably wasnāt bussing
continuing to dunk on Mist
not sure thereās much point in quoting every post where he does it? āwow this is another post in which he calls the flipped wolf a wolf, amazingā
honestly the level of confidence he displayed so early on for relatively thin reasons is starting to make me slightly scared that it was a bus? but I still donāt really think Marshalās approach makes much sense if he was bussing
think him softening his read on her here is unlikely to come from scum, if he were scum with TMI that she were scum I donāt think he would have felt the need to add the qualifier, I think thatās more likely to come from wrong town
on its own this post is kind of ehhhh but I think in context it doesnāt reallllly make sense in a W!Marshal world? like in a W!Marshal world his strategy was basically ādeathtunnel Mist for towncredā and this doesnāt really fit into a strategy like that at all which makes me think that he probably wasnāt bussing
continuing to dunk on Mist
kiinda think the pushing for a quickhammer is a slightly good look? like technically it could be performative distancing but sort of with Hippo I think him specifically pinging people (looking at kat here, not Mist) to try to get them to help is a somewhat good look
donāt feel as strongly about this as I do with the Hippo read
lol
thinking this is probably a good look since heās actively trying to shut down role spew from Mistās claim, which would defeat most of the point of scum Mist claiming PR
could technically be for towncred but I think the way he expressed it through sarcasm rather than being like āwtf guys! it is very important that we not say anything that might spew our roles! hahaā¦ā makes it more likely to be a genuine sentiment rather than a bid for cred
and him continuing to push for her to die rather than waiting for a CC is ?probably? a good look since it would, again, undermine literally the entire point of making this play as mafia
donāt want to 100 percent count on it since the ābeat up Mistās chances of livingā post almost feels like TMI that sheās flipping scum but given the rest of his Iso I can buy that he was just really confident in Mist W
I think him picking up on the fact that I was CCing Mist and trying to cover for her is super villagery, I donāt think he would have thought to do something like that as scum
Conclusions
Overall, I think Marshal is very unlikely to be W/W with Mist. He spent the entirety of D1 dunking on her, and while hardbussing isnāt outside of his scumrange the rest of his play on D1 makes me think itās unlikely that he was bussing, and some of his approach to Mist would be really dumb as scum.
kat and orange
okay Iām going to be honest itās 4:38 AM and if I stay up any longer Iām going to get less than 6 hours of sleep so Iām just not going to do these Isos overnight
whyyy am I doiiiing this
the tl;dr of my thoughts there are āmy [redacted] read on kat applies regardless of anything that happened with Mistā and āorange doesnāt like bussing but spent a large part of D1 pushing Mist, heās probably just clear from thatā
but technically I havenāt looked into them further
Overall Conclusions
Iām clearing Ici, Vul, and sulit for general independent villageriness regardless of any interactions
Iām clearing Hippo + Marshal for having really non-W/W interactions with Mist
I didnāt actually re-read kat or orangeās Iso with an eye for interactions analysis but I have them both as āyeah probably townā albeit for different reasons (with orange being more interactions/associations based
this leaves me with a PoE of Solic/Centuries/Dat/Geyde, I think itās reasonably likely that both remaining wolves are in that PoE
I think Solic/Centuries are probably the villageriest out of the four of them, would probably not want to vote there today, leaving me with Dat and Geyde
and Geyde hasnāt been villagery but Datās interactions are actually awful, I think given that Iād much rather go for Dat today. Geyde at least has āvoting a wolf earlyā as a redeeming point whereas Datās interactions with Mist have ~no redeeming features and have several traits of W/W interactions, such as vaguely shading Mist without pushing her, and trying to avoid making a read on her. Dat also ā¦ hasnāt been particularly villagery? like he had more posts in Shortnight which was a 6p with under 500 posts than he does here
so right now Iām thinking I want to kill Dat
