Autumn Invitational - Day 4 (5/13) - Town Wins!

Final Vote Count

Accused Voters Number
Mistyx sulit, Geyde, Arete, Mistyx, Vulgard, Marshal, Hippoyeetus 7/7
Hippoyeetus DatBird 1/7
Centuries orangeandblack5 1/7
katze Centuries 1/7
orangeandblack5 Solic 1/7
Not voting katze, Icibalus 2

If there are any errors with the VC, you have 5 minutes to DM me.

Mistyx has been eliminated! They wereā€¦

Sugar Maple (Acer saccharum)


Mafia Goon

You are a Mafia Goon. You share a 24/7 private chat with your fellow members of the Mafia. Each night, the Mafia must kill a player outside your faction.

Reach parity with the Town

Night starts, and will end 2020-11-24T16:45:00Z. Actions are locked an hour before this.

7 Likes

Reminder that Day 2 will be extended by 24 hours. Happy turkey day.

Threadmarks have been added to OP, and playerlist has been updated with flips.

End of Day 1 Flavor

ā€œFinallyā€¦ā€

Archibald huffed as he escaped the final foothold and steadied himself on the rugged cliff that overlooked the park. In front of him, a sea of trees spanned for miles, until it met with the distant village that he called home. Where the path began, the trees grew in a spiral pattern; a maelstrom of greens below the deep grey autumn sky. The forest was a goldmine for hardwood, and he knew the trails like the back of his hand. His motherā€™s woodworking business had allowed them to live in such a beautiful area, and though his job as her assistant was sometimes demanding, this view was something he wouldnā€™t give up for the world.

He wasnā€™t here to gawk in the forestā€™s beauty, though. He had a job to do, and he had spent the last four hours climbing the steep cliffside just to accomplish it. Turning around, Archie grinned as he spotted his prize: the beautiful Acer saccharum. The blazing red maple sat in stark contrast against the shades of green that flanked it; an imposter within the city of oak and pine.

Felling a tree was a difficult task, and though the rest of his crew was on their way up the trail, he knew he needed to get to work before they reached him. The young man removed his rucksack from his back and placed it on the ground in front of the maple. Strapped to the front was a rusty lumber axe, which he promptly freed from its sheath. With his eyes, he traced a line across the body of the tree. The task was second nature, and quickly enough, he found precisely where heā€™d land the first blow.

Tightening his grip on the handle, the young man heaved the axe into the air and swung it towards the tree with force. The blade connected as a cloud of bark and dust erupted from the trunk, signifying a successful opening cut. Normally, he would be happy to have hit his mark on the first try, but something was off, and Archie knew it; the head of his axe was stuck in the tree. How could he have swung so hard that it got lodged in the trunk? Nothing like this had ever happened to him before.

With all the strength in his body, Archibald ripped the axe from the trunk, and as the blade slid free, his question was answered. A heavy stream of liquid gushed from the wood. Though it was clear as water, the liquid had a slimy texture and a sour smell. Within seconds, the spout had dissipated into a steady drip, and Archibald stared in amazement. Never in his life had he seen something so bizarre.

Itā€™s almost as if the tree was speaking to him.

Itā€™s almost as if it wasā€¦ crying.

5 Likes

@DatBird has died. He was:

Shumard Oak (Quercus shumardii)


Mafia Role Cop

You are a Mafia Role Cop. You share a 24/7 private chat with your fellow members of the Mafia. Each night, the Mafia must kill a player outside your faction.

Each night, select a player. You will learn the playerā€™s role.

Reach parity with the Town

@Marshal has died. He was:

Black Tupelo (Nyssa sylvatica)


Vanilla Town

You are a Vanilla Town. Your only weapons are your voice and your vote.

Defeat the Mafia

4 Likes

Day 2 begins and will end at 2020-11-27T16:45:00Z (as itā€™s extended by 24 hours).

@Arete
@Centuries
@Geyde
@Hippolytus
@Icibalus
@katze
@orangeandblack5
@Solic
@sulit
@Vulgard

man

image

this is where i post a wall but honestly i didnt even bother thinking about the game for the past 24 hours

2 Likes

i was going to do things but then i was like

we just lynch datbord right

well I had a Prewrittenā„¢ Areteā„¢ Wallpostā„¢ analyzing people for partner compatibility with Mist but itā€™s kind of redundant now since my big takeaway was ā€˜Datbird probably wolf?ā€™

might as well post it anyway? some of my clears could in theory be useful

game should be

easy?

look for spew in

datbord and mist

solic sus? maybe?

i townread datbird

im scum

ah ggs got me

this is a joke btw

mmmmmmm

i have school brb

Alright, so overnight I went through everyoneā€™s Iso and looked for whether they made sense to be scum with Mist. This mostly isnā€™t looking at whether theyā€™re villagery outside of that, just their interactions with her.

Also Iā€™m only looking at things that happened before she started openwolfing, anything after that is basically WifoM.

Solic

Quoting this because itā€™s technically about Mist, donā€™t think this is AI at all.

Light townlean on Mist. The reasoning is decent so Iā€™m not going to be like ā€˜yeah this is lock W/W with Mist, only scum defend town,ā€™ but itā€™s definitely in ā€˜could be compatibleā€™ territory.

this fits with his previous read on Mist, at least, it doesnā€™t come totally out of the blue. Still makes me a little nervous.

donā€™t think we ever got an answer on whether he doesnā€™t hate the gamestate or whether he doesnā€™t hate Mistā€™s posts

thatā€™s all I could find, everything after that was post-Mist outing

Conclusion

overall, I canā€™t find anything to rule out Mist and Solic being W/W. I still find him independently mildly villagery, to be clear, just, if I look only at interactions a lot of them are kind of ehhhh.

Centuries

First interaction I could find between the two of them, the whole ā€˜ping a wolfmate in the thread and ask a very generic questionā€™ is definitely something Iā€™ve done before but itā€™s not damning on its own.

this is technically an interaction in the sense that it was a reply to Mist

quoting it for the sake of completeness but this really isnā€™t moving the needle for me one way or another

I guess if I squint Centuries yelling at Mist makes them slightly less likely to be W/W??

another ā€˜this is technically an interactionā€™ post

Quoting this even though itā€™s technically after Mist started openwolfing because I do actually think itā€™s AI, I think Conroy is ?probably? telling the truth here about not realizing that Mist was an outed wolf (not sure?) and I think Mistā€™s partners would have realized that she was an outed wolf, like, unless this is basically the worst wolf team ever itā€™s the sort of thing that would have come up in scum chat?? so this interaction makes me feel better about Conroy

Conclusions

Thereā€™s nothing that makes them 100 percent not W/W and a couple of their earlier interactions are a little :eyes: but there are a few interactions that make me think theyā€™re definitely less likely to be W/W, thinking I donā€™t really want to go there at this point

DatBird

technically mentions Mist, basically NAI for Bird

this kind of feels W/W, like heā€™s trying to deflect responsibility for reading her/avoid reading her

I didnā€™t see anything like that about anyone else while I was reading (although to be fair I was mostly skimming) and as far as I can tell the entire reason why he asked about Mist in particular is that she pocketed him in RotK but itā€™s not like sheā€™s the only person whoā€™s ever pocketed Dat

puts Marshal or Mist as her top execution choices, while not voting either of them. This feels pretty likely to be W/W distancing.

pretty sure this is about the least itā€™s possible to say about Mist in this number of words, really not a fan of this. sorta like the one about where he asked how to read her, it feels like heā€™s trying to avoid actually making a read on her

everything else is after Mist was outed

Conclusion

I think Dat and Mist have a lot of W/W compatibility, there are a lot of interactions in here that look kind of W/W and nothing that makes me think they canā€™t be partners. Would be happy to chop this today/tomorrow/I donā€™t know which word to use when Iā€™m writing overnight/decent odds no one sees this anyway

Ici

not going to lie I considered just not doing this analysis at all because Ici is super villagery regardless of interactions and I donā€™t think he could fake that

this seems basically NAI

this isnā€™t great, and honestly the qualifier makes me feel worse about it? like without the qualifier itā€™s a read thatā€™s wrong and with the qualifier itā€™s a read thatā€™s wrong and a preliminary excuse for it being wrong, which can sometimes be a sign of TMI

this is technically a reply to Mist but I donā€™t really think itā€™s AI

feel basically the same about this as I do about 729

and thatā€™s it for things that happened before Mist was outed

Conclusions

If I ignored literally everything else Iciā€™s slot has done Iā€™d be like ā€˜yeah this seems like it could be W/Wā€™ but, like, Iciā€™s pretty easy to read in my experience minus the one time we misexeā€™d him as IC and if I ā€¦ donā€™t ignore everything else his slot has done ā€¦ I think heā€™s a villager

like interactions are bad but the rest of his posting seems ~fine

and now Iā€™m like ā€˜why did I even bother to read through Iciā€™s interactions with Mist if I was just going to ignore themā€™ and itā€™s like 3:11 AM and in hindsight I probably should have started this earlier

is anyone even still reading this far

Iā€™m probably going to die N1 and this is going to go to waste anyway

anyways

Hippo

the snarky comment Hippo is responding to + Hippoā€™s response calling her out for misrepping him doesnā€™t really feel W/W, obviously distancing is a thing but Mistā€™s sarcasm here feels like a wolf talking to a villager

think this is unlikely to be W/W, specifically the part where he talks about pretending it was a typo if she flips town

it doesnā€™t feel like he has TMI that sheā€™s going to flip scum and I donā€™t think he would think to add that part if he did

kinda think this is also not W/W, Mist was at L-2 at this point IIRC with Hippo pushing for a hammer, the pushing for a quickhammer could be performative but I donā€™t think him actively trying to get Mist onto L-1 is performative, Iā€™m assuming the PR claim was at least semi-planned and if Hippoā€™s thing had worked he would have basically been forced to hammer her, which would prevent a PR claim

this is sort of, like, Iā€™m questioning whether a wolf would write this if their plan was to bus their partner and then coast on the cred until endgame and I think the answer is ā€˜noā€™

this is another post where, like, I absolutely believe a wolf would have the thought about being associated with them but I think probably they wouldnā€™t post it in the game thread

I remember hating this when I first saw it, to be fair to Hippo part of that was that I was kind of worried that we were headed for a Game 2 repeat but I remember thinking that if Mist did flip Mafia it kind of looked like TMI

he had an explanation later for how he didnā€™t see Mistā€™s PR claim but he didnā€™t actually unvote even after he saw it so Iā€™m still kind of at ā€˜yeah this could be TMIā€™

orange had a take that it would be kind of weird to vote Mist right after she claimed PR without even waiting for a CC, Iā€™m not totally sure if I buy it given that I think most people wouldnā€™t immediately hammer her unless they were actually a conflicting PR and if the conflicting PR outs by quickhammering Mist that still outs them to the wolves

think thatā€™s it before Mist started openwolfing

Conclusions

Overall I think this is a pretty good look for Hippo, even if he wasnā€™t one of the strongest pushers on Mist there are a couple interactions that donā€™t really feel W/W and a bunch of things in here that make me think Hippo didnā€™t have TMI on Mistā€™s alignment, the only thing that I could really see as W/W is Hippo voting Mist right after she claimed and never seeming to really even question whether or not Mistā€™s claim was real. I think itā€™s really unlikely Hippo was W/W with Mist.

sulit + Vul

yeah screw this itā€™s past 3:30 AM and I townread them both pretty strongly anyways

Geyde

technically an interaction, not really AI

this isnā€™t technically a read on Mist but given that Mist was in fact a wolf and not really trying this argument is sort of making me mrrrrr

these are all pretty softball questions to Mist, I feel like a lot of his questions had more meat to them

edit: scrolling down a bit thatā€™s not 100 percent true, he has some similarly softbally questions to Dat e.g. in 1551

technically about Mist but basically NAI

vote on Mist is probably a slightly good look, I checked and he was a relatively early vote on her, the next votecount I can find is this one:

where heā€™s the second vote. Not willing to 100 percent clear him because from what Iā€™ve seen heā€™s pretty willing to bus as scum but I do think itā€™s a good look.

highkey feels like a rule of 3 given that I think Hippo and Marshal are both very likely V

dislike this argument a lot given Mistā€™s flip

maybe itā€™s just that I have TMI on my alignment but given that we know the first person in immediate PoE was a wolf who was not trying particularly hard Geyde being like ā€˜what if the PoE is wrong?? letā€™s kill Arete, also I will not comment on Mistā€™s alignment while making this argumentā€™ feels like heā€™s trying to find an alternative to Mist while also softdefending her by suggesting that wolves would need to tryhard

think this could go either way (n.b. this is before Mist outed)

the one thing I can confidently say about it is that itā€™s not W/V with Geyde as the wolf but we already knew that from Mist flipping scum so

ok Iā€™m lazy so Iā€™m not going to go figure out where this should go (I missed this the first time but Geyde quotes it later in his Iso) but I donā€™t think this is out of the realm of distancing

everything after that is post-Mist outing

sidenote this isnā€™t really relevant to Mist interactions but Iā€™m not a fan of Geydeā€™s response to my pressure on him, like, he jumps straight to accusing me of pushing on him in bad faith

Conclusions

thereā€™s like one thing that I think is a slightly good look (him voting Mist early on) and a few things that I think are pretty bad looks here, I think overall Geyde has a lot of potential to be a Mist partner and him voting Mist early isnā€™t enough to outweigh that

IIRC this is from his early fake readlist so Iā€™m not going to read too much into Mistā€™s placement given that ā€¦ the reads were fake ā€¦

Marshal was pushing on Mist really early on, pretty sure this was one of the earliest reasons people had for making a serious push on her, bussing isnā€™t outside of Marshalā€™s wolfrange but I think it would be ~suboptimal~ for him to lead the charge against her on D1

continuing to lead the push on Mist, again Iā€™m pretty sure she wasnā€™t coming under much pressure at this point which makes me feel a little better about the push not being a bus

think the second half of this is unlikely to be distancing, I could see W!Marshal calling a partner lockwolf if he was bussing them since his busses tend to lack nuance but I donā€™t think he would explicitly call for a thunderdome like this, particularly since he wasnā€™t particularly townread either ā€“ like, this is the sort of thing that easily could have backfired on W!Marshal and gotten him exeā€™d

sidenote I think that if Marshalā€™s plan were ā€˜hardbus Mist to get into the towncore then deepwolf to endgameā€™ he would have tried harder to be townread in the early game, which is another thing that makes me think he probably wasnā€™t bussing

continuing to dunk on Mist

not sure thereā€™s much point in quoting every post where he does it? ā€˜wow this is another post in which he calls the flipped wolf a wolf, amazingā€™

honestly the level of confidence he displayed so early on for relatively thin reasons is starting to make me slightly scared that it was a bus? but I still donā€™t really think Marshalā€™s approach makes much sense if he was bussing

think him softening his read on her here is unlikely to come from scum, if he were scum with TMI that she were scum I donā€™t think he would have felt the need to add the qualifier, I think thatā€™s more likely to come from wrong town

on its own this post is kind of ehhhh but I think in context it doesnā€™t reallllly make sense in a W!Marshal world? like in a W!Marshal world his strategy was basically ā€˜deathtunnel Mist for towncredā€™ and this doesnā€™t really fit into a strategy like that at all which makes me think that he probably wasnā€™t bussing

continuing to dunk on Mist

kiinda think the pushing for a quickhammer is a slightly good look? like technically it could be performative distancing but sort of with Hippo I think him specifically pinging people (looking at kat here, not Mist) to try to get them to help is a somewhat good look

donā€™t feel as strongly about this as I do with the Hippo read

lol

thinking this is probably a good look since heā€™s actively trying to shut down role spew from Mistā€™s claim, which would defeat most of the point of scum Mist claiming PR

could technically be for towncred but I think the way he expressed it through sarcasm rather than being like ā€˜wtf guys! it is very important that we not say anything that might spew our roles! hahaā€¦ā€™ makes it more likely to be a genuine sentiment rather than a bid for cred

and him continuing to push for her to die rather than waiting for a CC is ?probably? a good look since it would, again, undermine literally the entire point of making this play as mafia

donā€™t want to 100 percent count on it since the ā€˜beat up Mistā€™s chances of livingā€™ post almost feels like TMI that sheā€™s flipping scum but given the rest of his Iso I can buy that he was just really confident in Mist W

I think him picking up on the fact that I was CCing Mist and trying to cover for her is super villagery, I donā€™t think he would have thought to do something like that as scum

Conclusions

Overall, I think Marshal is very unlikely to be W/W with Mist. He spent the entirety of D1 dunking on her, and while hardbussing isnā€™t outside of his scumrange the rest of his play on D1 makes me think itā€™s unlikely that he was bussing, and some of his approach to Mist would be really dumb as scum.

kat and orange

okay Iā€™m going to be honest itā€™s 4:38 AM and if I stay up any longer Iā€™m going to get less than 6 hours of sleep so Iā€™m just not going to do these Isos overnight

whyyy am I doiiiing this

the tl;dr of my thoughts there are ā€˜my [redacted] read on kat applies regardless of anything that happened with Mistā€™ and ā€˜orange doesnā€™t like bussing but spent a large part of D1 pushing Mist, heā€™s probably just clear from thatā€™

but technically I havenā€™t looked into them further

Overall Conclusions

Iā€™m clearing Ici, Vul, and sulit for general independent villageriness regardless of any interactions

Iā€™m clearing Hippo + Marshal for having really non-W/W interactions with Mist

I didnā€™t actually re-read kat or orangeā€™s Iso with an eye for interactions analysis but I have them both as ā€˜yeah probably townā€™ albeit for different reasons (with orange being more interactions/associations based

this leaves me with a PoE of Solic/Centuries/Dat/Geyde, I think itā€™s reasonably likely that both remaining wolves are in that PoE

I think Solic/Centuries are probably the villageriest out of the four of them, would probably not want to vote there today, leaving me with Dat and Geyde

and Geyde hasnā€™t been villagery but Datā€™s interactions are actually awful, I think given that Iā€™d much rather go for Dat today. Geyde at least has ā€˜voting a wolf earlyā€™ as a redeeming point whereas Datā€™s interactions with Mist have ~no redeeming features and have several traits of W/W interactions, such as vaguely shading Mist without pushing her, and trying to avoid making a read on her. Dat also ā€¦ hasnā€™t been particularly villagery? like he had more posts in Shortnight which was a 6p with under 500 posts than he does here

so right now Iā€™m thinking I want to kill Dat

my dat read was unpog

1 Like

@Vulgard
Can you point me to the stuff about Orange
I like
Canā€™t find it