Autumn Invitational - Day 4 (5/13) - Town Wins!

[Geyde]

what the fuck was that post

[Solic]

@katze

im gonna go afk for an hour and make a readlist only using metareads, solve the game, and then cry because i’m actually a mafia role cop

gl

Bleh

What was your reason for this post?

@katze

oh also conroy is making reads that require more than 3 braincells which is >rand V for him

I remember making the same observation, but not necessarily the same conclusion, but they were at least paying attention.

@katze

its okay ill turn this all into a RT and then get towncored, much to Aretes’ chagrin

Haven’t seen this yet.

@katze

Look, here’s what’s going to happen:

We’re going to yeet someone, probably someone in the perceived lower half of obvious meta of the players in the game that had the most uninspired d1 by t0an and/or volume; hopefully we’re right

The wolves are going to SPK someone, probably Vulgard if he’s a villager and/or has something that could be minimally construed as a softclaim, and then some other shit may or may not happen and we’ll have NK/mechanical stuff to talk about

It’s hard to gin up enthusiasm when the real game isn’t actually going to start for the better part of 48 hours, and having sulit act like she’s all clever for voting me because there’s a 25% chance she could be right and have gotten in on the ground floor is just stupid, and it’s insulting that you think it would be at all productive regardless of my role

This is scarily apt, for once. (Not regarding Katze predictions, but more so these macro game predictions as a whole)

[quote=“katze, post:280, topic:84772, full:true”]

@Vulgard

@katze

Probably A Villager List

Centuries
Arete
Vulgard
[/quote]

lmao what i hadn’t posted yet
what is this

soulreads

you just posted a wallpost that i don’t absolutely hate so you’re probably a villager

funny how that works definitely not TMI

I did like this wallpost as well.

@katze

/unvote

i guess ill stop openwolfing before it actually gets out of hand

i’d say “lolRT” but no i was just bored theres no elaborate softs

i could explain why i’d probably not do it as wolf but ultimately it’s WIFOM and im stupid enough to do a lot of things as W

@Arete i feel like your reaction to this will be funniest

I’m floored by humor.

@katze

@DatBird

I know the answer is gut or rng so im just gonna leave it alone

there’s something about this sentence that i despise but i can’t actually tell what it is

and to be honest it could probably easily be an annoyed V!Dat thought

but i still dislike it

@katze

back to hiding i go

Had Dat low first, but Mist rand > V…

@katze

actually fuck it hardclaiming a PR fuck off

This was way too early to actually be valid imo…

@katze

ill vote dat when he agrees to being bussed

@katze

okay i looked at my notes and the post i pointed out for why orange/hippo aren’t W/W isn’t even a post written by orange or hippo what the fuck

Feels like it could have happened.

@katze

mist iso is void of any content and my prior “they felt comfortable + postcount” read is kinda nullified by the fact their posting dropped off a cliff

Going to note this was a good post, because I went through a similar pattern. I didn’t quote a lot, because holy fuck this probably is longer than Orange’s based on content, but so far their readslist hasn’t undergone any obviously unnatural progressions.

@katze

Mist has died! She was…

Mafia Parity Role Cop

Second mention of specifically mafia role cop is making me go a bit.

@katze

i mean to be honest i found softs for all 3 role types in her iso

which is probably >rand fake claim but also

@katze

ftr i thought the homestuck comment was a vig soft so i guess im too smart for my own good and “haha im mafia jk” is a lame ass soft

Which were these? Would like to figure out something from that. @katze What would have been investigative soft?

@katze

dat >rand V for not knowing i revealed tbh

@katze

i expect literally nobody to read the above post but i am now locktown

I regret … many things

@katze

Not in my lock/The Discard Pile

Centuries - One of my stronger townreads early on, but has dropped off quite a bit? I dunno, I think their early D1 was villagery enough and that they had a few reads that felt vaguely out of the wolfrange I percieve them to have. sulit having a relatively confident sounding townread on this slot is a point in the french boys favor as I feel like she’s probably more competent at reading him than I am, but I’m still a bit wary of just blindly following it because it’s a D1 read with no meat to the bone. Which might be silly. Dunno how strong their abilities to soulread eachother are. Dropoff might not be as concerning as I’m making it and they’re still likely a villager but I feel slightly stronger about Marshal/orange as of now, mostly due to the lack of consistency in villager energy. Might be unreasonable. However, french bad. oui oui baguette omelette fu fromage junior est pour les petites chiennes jaja

DatBird - DatBird being this low on a readlist is concerning, they definitely need to be monitored closely on D2. If they’re a villager, it’ll be very apparent, if not, it’ll probably be apparent. Honestly though? GTH they’re a villager. They’re not a shining beacon of it, but they don’t feel like a wolf. They just don’t feel like a villager either. Low standards, I know, but I don’t need to write a lot of words on Dats’ alignment so I’m not going to. Figure it out tomorrow.

Solic - Opener was villagery, but honestly? I was going to do a full ISO on this but I’m tired and can’t force myself to bring it to completion, but I glance over it in #2396. I don’t think this is impossible to be W/W with Mist. Super turbo skimming their ISO, the read on Dat in 631 is probably >rand V or W/W because Dat was not seen very postively in thread and it isn’t necessary for W!Solic to make the post about V!Dat and the thought processes in this post are decent. Defending the read in later posts strongly reinforces this imo. Maybe they’re defending it too strongly? Their turnaround on Mist in 1799 is concerning as there’s literally zero visible buildup to it, which could be NAI as there’s little Solic presence in thread at this time and they could have just caught up and saw it (which doesn’t not fit their posting style)

Geyde - As I glossed over in #2231, their play is… low energy. For pretty much any other player in this list, I’d just call them a wolf for it. At surface value their posts are pretty decent, but when I read his ISO under the guise that they are a wolf, their posts… fit? That’s a style of read I’ve only tried a few times so I don’t know how strong this read really is, although it was a large portion of me turning around on Mixodya in Hydra Game 3 so maybe I should weigh this more? Dno. I did move this slot down two spaces since I started typing this if that helps tho also posts involving Mist don’t not feel W/W at all so idk man

>rand W

Hippo - I know orange argued they’re probably not W/W with Mist, and I’m too lazy to go in depth and figure out the validity of that claim, but at a skim I don’t think it’s impossible . I personally think that, regardless of Mist, their actions are just sorta wolfy. I think their overall handling of PRs is really fucking bad, and honestly could border TWTBAW if I believe in that being a real read (okay, I do, but every time I think it applies they’re not too wolfy to be a wolf, they’re just a fucking wolfy wolf. The amount of posts in their ISO that are just “bro wtf stop scumreading me” is a way bigger number than it should be.

Uncounterclaimed Wolf

Mistyx - ok but what if she’s a villager :wowee:

@katze

last wolf is prob conroy

Why was this? @katze You could have done this on players lower on your readslist…

@katze

marshals not a player you N1 without a very good reason in this playerlist because he’s one of the hardest players to actually metaread

I mean Marshal had a lot of towncred for Mist and was going hard for Birdo, so not that weird tbh…

@katze

also might post less for the next few days my wrist is starting to disagree with me so ill probably try to let it rest

yes please

@katze

why would i not believe this

i am firmly in what he percieves as my V meta

@katze

what he said on D1 literally backs me up and what he said when reading our slot in hydra game 3 backs me up further

This indignance rings like a true emotion. Pride in how they’re currently playing scum or annoyed at playing in a supposed town meta and not being recognized for that… hmm.

@katze

with all of that said im getting another piece of apple pie cause it’s delicious and both times i’ve typed apple i typoed it as appel before fixing it so shoutout to @appelsiini i guess

Maybe reading into this wayyyyy too much, but leaving indicates annoyance more so, because pride might incentivize to gloat a bit more about it instead of leaving thread. Oh never mind they stayed around, doing exactly that meeh. Back to NAI I guess.

@katze

i think i’d take more accomplishment in endgaming this game than enjoyment by openwolfing again though

i think my play this game is miles away from what i’d do as a wolf

unfortunately for geyde/orange half of that isn’t apparent if you don’t know what i do and arete doesn’t seem to actually want to read my posts to figure out my alignment so

@katze

hi

i didnt remember any of [redacted]s posts today and thought [pronoun] dropped off the earth

instead of being a normal person and ISOing them for D3 i did an approximation of all of the alive players’ postcounts per day

SBPCBWWE

Orange
D1: 590 posts
D2: 120 posts
D3: 360 posts

katze
D1: 410 posts
D2: 60 posts
D3: 250 posts

Geyde
D1: 205 posts
D2: 50 posts
D3: 200 posts

Arete
D1: 210 posts
D2: 25 posts
D3: 170 posts

Butter
D1: 185 posts
D2: 30 posts
D3: 75 posts

Hippo
D1: 155 posts
D2: 15 posts
D3: 55 posts

Icibalus
D1: 125 posts
D2: 50 posts
D3: 20 posts

Solic
D1: 60 posts
D2: 40 posts
D3: 20 posts

i have a few opinions but ill keep this post Objective:tm: so people aren’t swayed either way

so i redacted the name and gender of the player in question

Still high effort lategame when scum should have a degree of tanked WiM. Hmm. Also day 3 is still ongoing.

@katze

@Solic

This is such a gamer gamestate jesus.

Also my reads have been so bad lol.

im going to quote a player

katze Solic said gamer, katze Solic is V

this read isnt serious but i thought this post was funny because i interpret solic as a person who doesnt normally say things like this

Truth.

@katze

this post sucks in a villagery way tho

I was relatively obviously bad faith pushing to get him to do something to be honest.

I’m ending up with more than likely town than not town, because of decent progression I suppose. I don’t think I can really muster to actually make this succinct and helpful, but would rather not vote Katze over the other candidates today.

Oh also, your Sulit read just seems to be focused on this and that’s it? Not worth a locktown.

@katze

this post reminds me of why i townread sulit

sulit is probably a villager because despite wanting to go to sleep and not being able to she still came into thread and did things which means she wants to play which is >>>rand V for her specifically and >rand V for this specific game

but it’s also sulit D1 so if W she could still have WiM but i dont think she goes above and beyond as a wolf very often

[Solic]

@orangeandblack5

@katze are you the vig then

I don’t think it’s good to ask this to everyone. Just ask it to the player we are close on executing before executing.

You’re already being checked, so there is no need to ask more than 1 player indefinitely if they are or are not.

[orangeandblack5]

funny you should say that because I was just coming around to sulit->arete->kat as the order

[orangeandblack5]

@Solic

You’re already being checked

I am not

@Geyde will not check me or I will throttle him in post

[Solic]

Why not.

[Solic]

You’ve already spewed yourself, so

We can’t have Geyde accidentally check a possible vig.

[orangeandblack5]

because that’s objectively a waste if I’m already the closest thing he has to a clear outside of the PRs

he should always check within the PoE

[Solic]

Meeh, I’ll just let Geyde figure it out.

[orangeandblack5]

[Solic]

Although your reluctance to be checked is noted

[orangeandblack5]

solic

with all due respect

your reads all game have been quote dog shit quote

btfo

[Solic]

And your reaction here as well

[Geyde]

@orangeandblack5

@Solic

You’re already being checked

I am not

@Geyde will not check me or I will throttle him in post

it might be funny though
but yes I’ve already got a different check in mind

[orangeandblack5]

question

how much stock do we put in this post

Autumn Invitational - Day 3 (8/13)

Alright, so overnight I went through everyone’s Iso and looked for whether they made sense to be scum with Mist. This mostly isn’t looking at whether they’re villagery outside of that, just their interactions with her. Also I’m only looking at things that happened before she started openwolfing, anything after that is basically WifoM. Solic Quoting this because it’s technically about Mist, don’t think this is AI at all. Light townlean on Mist. The reasoning is decent so I’m not going to be…

[orangeandblack5]

@Solic

This is scarily apt, for once. (Not regarding Katze predictions, but more so these macro game predictions as a whole)

it’s a copypasta

but fair point still

[Solic]

I think all the “technically this is an interaction” posts are fluffy padding and just makes them want to show they put effort in it.

[orangeandblack5]

okay but like

do we think Arete either predicted Dat would get vigged or edited a post to shade him heavily real quick or had decided to basically hardbus him

[Solic]

@Arete

DatBird

@DatBird

Doesnt always work as I beleived Mist was town in ROK, but you can always go for it and see if u get anything from it

technically mentions Mist, basically NAI for Bird

@DatBird

Im still reading but does like anyone have a read on Mist, after last game i learned i have 0 good way to read her.

this kind of feels W/W, like he’s trying to deflect responsibility for reading her/avoid reading her

I didn’t see anything like that about anyone else while I was reading (although to be fair I was mostly skimming) and as far as I can tell the entire reason why he asked about Mist in particular is that she pocketed him in RotK but it’s not like she’s the only person who’s ever pocketed Dat

@DatBird

Im feeling Marshal or Mist

puts Marshal or Mist as her top execution choices, while not voting either of them. This feels pretty likely to be W/W distancing.

@DatBird

With mist, i think i am paranoid from last game, as they got me real good. So when reading through it I was trying to see if I was getting same vibes as last game, but I wasn’t instead I was getting minimal vibes at all. Just like everything they have done feels subdued and lacking to put it in the easiest terms. Basically i coulnt tell u a thing they have done. I prob will iso her later as i feel its more paranoia then anything, as thats what i told cheese to do last game when he was paranoid on me. But the lack of anything of note has me worried

pretty sure this is about the least it’s possible to say about Mist in this number of words, really not a fan of this. sorta like the one about where he asked how to read her, it feels like he’s trying to avoid actually making a read on her

everything else is after Mist was outed

Conclusion

I think Dat and Mist have a lot of W/W compatibility, there are a lot of interactions in here that look kind of W/W and nothing that makes me think they can’t be partners. Would be happy to chop this today/tomorrow/I don’t know which word to use when I’m writing overnight/decent odds no one sees this anyway

@Arete

this leaves me with a PoE of Solic/Centuries/Dat/Geyde, I think it’s reasonably likely that both remaining wolves are in that PoE

I think Solic/Centuries are probably the villageriest out of the four of them, would probably not want to vote there today, leaving me with Dat and Geyde

and Geyde hasn’t been villagery but Dat’s interactions are actually awful, I think given that I’d much rather go for Dat today. Geyde at least has ‘voting a wolf early’ as a redeeming point whereas Dat’s interactions with Mist have ~no redeeming features and have several traits of W/W interactions, such as vaguely shading Mist without pushing her, and trying to avoid making a read on her. Dat also … hasn’t been particularly villagery? like he had more posts in Shortnight which was a 6p with under 500 posts than he does here

so right now I’m thinking I want to kill Dat

I don’t know if this is angleshooting of a kind really? But it was made 4 minutes after daystart, so they’d probably be hard-pressed to really alter this significantly and have it make sense. I feel like you would take more time to do this for sure properly, if you’d be caught by surprise.

Thus fairly sure it was written overnight.

[orangeandblack5]

well yeah but it would be possible to either

A - edit the parts about dat rq to make them more negative, or change the conclusion to prioritize him over Geyde

B - have predicted a vig might well kill Dat and had two versions of the writeup (I have definitely done this before!)

so it’s not impossible it’s tailored in one of these ways

but my question is do you think it’s tailored/bussing or do you think it’s not