Black Flag Nightless-The Clock Struck Midnight-English Victory

[DatBird]

@eevee-sama

Hey at least it confirms me as town if any of them is scum, lol.

ehhhhh thats more likely town at best

[Wazza]

@Marshal

Yes, it is. However, You or eevee are(In my mind) The best 2nd option. Now, you have every chance to redeem yourself because you dont post often.

A Slight Scumread is not something that should ever be followed up with by a vote.

[eevee]

So instead of reading someone for facts, you need to read based on why that facts happened in game.

[Marshal]

Yes. Im still learning. Im doing my best to revise my reads with why i think everyone did certain actions

[eevee]

@DatBird

ehhhhh thats more likely town at best

I mean fair, tho if I was scum with them I would kinda know more about them imo.

Tho I agree that I don’t usually background check everyone who I am in team with as scum

[DatBird]

yeah me, u, and Soulshade was a hell of a scum team. We had everything planned

[eevee]

I think we lost that game anyway, didn’t we?

[DatBird]

We lost really bad. Soulshade kinda just gave up, and then me and you scrambeled for a it and then got slowly caught

[eevee]

Let’s blame Soulshade for throwing there tbh.

[DatBird]

Oh FK even blamed them, we also blame Isaac for getting modkilled and us losing a night kill

[eevee]

But yeah, really only thing which it brings anything useful rn is that I usualy talk a lot with my scummates on chat to coordinate stuff.

[Htm]

I just realized I have 0 scum reads and only 2 scumleans which change depending on the if the person is scum or not

Yay… this is a nice start…

[Marshal]

My reads:

[MOST SUS TO LEAST SUS(imo)]

Andrej: most likely scum here.

1. Has formed a scumteam in their head of me jake and lymphoma.

Why? Maybe they are town looking for possible scum. Maybe they are evil trying to look town for making reads. There also could be a scum out of jake and lymphoma and associating the other two with the scum could help scum.

2. Voted a wagon on me hour 1

Why? They could be town voting for a sus person. If they are evil, they could very easily be taking the pressure off of themselves, and on to me. If i do get lynched and flip townie, they could pin it on jake for starting the wagon

Eevee:

1. Only posted pictures and no actual discussion for the first portion

Why? Their keyboard was broken. Now that it is fixed, they can(and have) start posting real discussion

2. Called themself and andrej “Low hanging-fruit”

Why? It could be a scum defense saying that they(and andrej) LOOK scummish, but are really just easy yet town targets and the voters on them are evil. They could also be town posing the same defence. either way, they know they looked like scum and dont want that image

wazza

1. Has been almost completely quiet

Why? They dont often post regularly, and claim to be often busy. If they were scum, they might be on more to discuss things with other scum and help mold relationships. Therefore i Move this one to [Neutral] For now

Htm

1. Changed view of magnus almost instantly from bad>good

Why? Well they claim to be convinced by geyde that magnus wasnt evil. If they were scum, they instantly got a member out of the spotlight and can pin it on geyde if they want to. If they are town, they defended someone who they were convinced was good to aviod a myslynch.

Magnus

1. Claimed to not know what the evil faction was

Why? Well if they were evil, this is a good fake-townslip that semi-confirms them as town Other comments later suggest that they didnt read the outline. If they are town, they really didn’t read the outline and wanted to know in chat. Past games suggest this type of additude and it is very possible that they are town

Jake

1. Voted eevee with me D1

Why? They had just read through the whole thread according to them, and had no bias on what just happened VS what happened at the start. If they were town, The original lack of content from eevee and then my argument for lynch could have pushed him to vote. If scum, could be trying to either
A: Give traction to a wagon on (town) eevee hoping for a myslynch on town
B: Distance themselves from eevee(scum) knowing that the vote wouldnt go through anyways

Thoughts on my first 6? am i on the right track?

[Wazza]

@Marshal

Therefore i Move this one to [Neutral] For now

I’ve done nothing to change your opinion on me lol.

[eevee]

Not bad for first step.

So let’s move forward.
As you see your reads on facts could have few different explanations for both town and scum, but now you are stuck in the place where most of your information is “useless” due to both town and scum being able to do them.

That’s not good either.

That’s called WIFOM (wine in front of me) dillema.
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=WIFOM
(Read first paragraph)

The main tool to get out of situation like that, except trying to use your own gut to understand motives, is called “Occam’s razor”.

Occam razor is telling us that "the simplest solution is usualy the real one.

Now, for each of your scum/town motivations you can either use your gut to see why it’s happening or just pick simpler answer.
Reminder, Occam’s razor only says about USUALY, so it can be wrong, so your gut.

But for now discard the less likely options/ones you think are false and see where it gets your reads to.

[Marshal]

@Wazza

I really can’t deal with this shit right now. I’m pissed off enough as it is but you providing an EXTERMELY INVALID reason to scumread me.

Unlike you, Marshal actually posted a pretty okay reason, and I was perfectly fine with that.

But your reason just seems like a terrible way to force the Town onto someone else, or perhaps create a fake distance. As what I’m thinking right now is that you are scum and once you are lynched, people will believe that this was distancing away from me. And you know what? I’m not going to fucking stand for that.

I dont think scum would be this defensive yet. But its not enough to make me town

Therefore nuetral

[Marshal]

Alright im discarding the ones i think is unlikely for 1’st 6 and keeping the ones that have the most merit

[eevee]

Keep your gut first still, occam razor is useful, but it is not perfect.

[Marshal]

My reads:

[MOST SUS TO LEAST SUS(imo)]

Andrej : most likely scum here.

1. Has formed a scumteam in their head of me jake and lymphoma.

Why? There also could be a scum out of jake and lymphoma and associating the other two with the scum could help scum.

2. Voted a wagon on me hour 1

If they are evil, they could very easily be taking the pressure off of themselves, and on to me. If i do get lynched and flip townie, they could pin it on jake for starting the wagon

Eevee :

1. Only posted pictures and no actual discussion for the first portion

Why? Their keyboard was broken. Now that it is fixed, they can(and have) start posting real discussion

2. Called themself and andrej “Low hanging-fruit”

They could also be town posing the same defence. either way, they know they looked like scum and dont want that image

wazza

1. Has been almost completely quiet

Why? They dont often post regularly, and claim to be often busy. If they were scum, they might be on more to discuss things with other scum and help mold relationships. Therefore i Move this one to [Neutral] For now

Htm

1. Changed view of magnus almost instantly from bad>good

Why? Well they claim to be convinced by geyde that magnus wasnt evil. If they were scum, they instantly got a member out of the spotlight and can pin it on geyde if they want to, or defend a town to make them look town

Magnus

1. Claimed to not know what the evil faction was

Why? Other comments later suggest that they didnt read the outline. If they are town, they really didn’t read the outline and wanted to know in chat. Past games suggest this type of additude and it is very possible that they are town

Jake

1. Voted eevee with me D1

Why? They had just read through the whole thread according to them, and had no bias on what just happened VS what happened at the start. If they were town, The original lack of content from eevee and then my argument for lynch could have pushed him to vote.

Updated with my gut feels

*Pins HTM and Andrej as likely evils

[Htm]

@Marshal

Why? Well they claim to be convinced by geyde that magnus wasnt evil. If they were scum, they instantly got a member out of the spotlight and can pin it on geyde if they want to, or defend a town to make them look town

I have posted much more then this, you seem very focused on just this part.