Did you Arete tell you not to explain the reasoning to us, or hint that he didn’t want you to somehow?
also when theres less than 6 people i assume star pass would stop taking SW as priority
no? what in that post made you think that. i was referring to italy’s hypothetical
again, i dont really know the details. i was spouting off what i heard me thinks.
its my telling of it is sloppy.
ive always been bad at explaining things, especially things which i didnt make/design.
problem is im kinda good at speaking confidently on stuff as if i know it well.
i realize that sounds like bs, which it kinda feels like to me at times ngl, but its true
no.
im just legitimately bad at explaining it.
which is why im asking arete to come in and explain it themselves
So this is from the sign up for reference you guys
Imp : Each night (not the first), select a player; they die. If you select yourself, you die and a Minion becomes the Imp.
…that’s possible and given Waz and Eev’s confidence I think it could be true.
Sorry for calling your theory sloppy, Arete.
Either way, Eev star-passing is pretty weird given the universal town-read. They were definitely more town-read than Shur, I think
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(hello yes I’m back)
I agree that it’s weird, but with him openwolving and refusing to retract it in LyLo we basically have to operate under the assumption that he’s scum in some form
Like, he’s definitely been playing suboptimally for scum!eevee but on the other hand if he’d been playing optimally I think it’s plausible that scum would have won with no evils even dying
In any case I was thinking about it during my Chemistry review session and I think some of the weirdness of this LyLo points to it being Shurian over Simon
Basically, I’m objectively the most suspicious person here, multiple dead people who by PoE have to be town have said they would vote for me if I were nominated, and regardless of which lynch is the mislynch of the two of Simon and Shurian I ought to be easier to mislynch
and both of them more-or-less agree that I’m town, and that’s weird
One of the things Geyde said to me at some point when I asked him for advice is to look what advantage town and scum would gain from doing a specific action, rather than just looking at whether an action is townie. (Like, it’s easy to townread someone for being ‘solvey’ but scum also gain an advantage from looking ‘solvey’ and if they know I’ll TR them for it they might fake it (this is my example not his, if it’s not what he meant then sorry Geyde))
If you’re Simon in this scenario the biggest advantage you gain from pushing Shurian over me is the possibility of winning people over to your side – I can be convincing even when I’m wrong. but that doesn’t outweigh the multiple deadvotes who would probably never be swayed off of me if I were an option, and separately the deadvotes that would never be swayed onto Shurian* and he could have pushed me pretty easily
If you’re Shurian in this scenario, then I’m an easier push than Simon, but not by as much as the easiness of pushing me vs. Shurian, meaning that’s less significant of an advantage. Furthermore, if you’re Shurian, then pushing me messes up your progression and risks people actually using reads in this game and figuring out that it’s you. If you’d asked me at SoD I would have said I was never lynching Shurian. from his perspective when he nominated Simon, he wouldn’t have been worrying that I would side against him.
basically, the way I see it, W!Simon has a lot more to gain from pushing me than W!Shurian, and less to lose
uh I don’t know if I explained that super well
Also I probably won’t be on the last couple hours, my Moot Court team is having a holiday party
…possibly I will duck out of the room for the last few minutes of the day 
when looking for who enacted a plan for something (like a crime scene for example, but its more general than that), look at the results, and ask who benefits from whatever those results are.
i didnt learn this in the context of forum mafia, but i think it applies very well here
tfw youre just discussing theory and like methodology but people just completely discredit it because they think your scum
all y’all better shut up about not trusting me for logical stuff like this because you think im scum. discredit my conclusions, sure, but my methods and the theory behind them are more important to me than winning. when i share this stuff its to in general help yall but also because i like discussing this stuff. what it isnt is lying to you about it to gain an edge. after this game, when my alignment no longer matters, im going to quote and reiterate this just in case. sorry, rant over. this isnt to arete or most of yall, it just irks me when this happens and i was reminded of it while writing the above
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remember when david made that saint joke after we killed mix?
if tan made shurian appear as a class who we weren’t even allowed to EXECUTE because their execution was an autowin for evils, my reaction against her would be about the same as hers when she thought mix doubled up on a claim as saint