[CFM] Noughts and Crosses ~ Mafia wins!

Voted Voters Number Of Votes
Marl Marg, Hippo 2
Marg Unknown, FK, Captain, Marl, Cookies 5
Hippo Meme 1
Unknown Maxi 1

Poor Citileste was turned into a cross by the town!! She was obviously the Mafia Goon I mean Citizen ! Anyway Night begins!

1 Like

Current Board:

image

2 Likes

As the sun rises everyone comes at their place in the board except Marl! We sent our secret investigators to go find him but then we found Marl turned into a nought near his home. He was the Citizen of course! Anyway day starts!

Current Board:

image

Well rip marl

Time to backread him

Hmmmmm
NOT hippo?
looks at cookies

well, you are in a great spot there, aren’t you?

We have some possibilities.

  1. We lynch me, Hippo dies, Captain gets lynched. If Captain is Mafia Mafia loses. per cross trap.
    Problem: If we both are town, town loses. I am town. And Captain can be addressed anyways.
    2.We lynch Memesky. If Captain and Memesky are town we lose. This is strictly worse than option 3, and should never be done.
    3.We lynch Captain. This forces Mafia to kill Memesky and, if both are town, we go into 5p LYLO WITH an Innocent Child, and we can pick anyone there as the Mafia have no 2 noughts in a row.
    If Captain or Memesky are Mafia, then we can lynch ME; and Mafia loses by a cross trap.
    (
    O?X
    ???
    XOX
    )
  2. We lynch Maximus Prime/Cookies/Firekitten.
    If they are town we likely lose instantly(if not then the scumteam has Captain…); this isn’t better than option 3.
    5.We lynch Hippolytus.
    This is strictly worse than option 1, even, and should NEVER EVER be done.

Now, Mafia probably knows this, and is unlikely to be in {memesky, Captain}, but all other options are simply worse than option 3(lynch Captain, force Memesky kill).

The numbers in my post are somehow messed up. No idea why.

Actually, even if you think I am 99% scum then lynching me is still the worse idea.
Because…
if we lynch Captain, we also flip Meme as a bonus. If, at 5p, we would proceed to lynch me, and I’d be scum(which I am not) then it would be an X trap, auto - lose for Mafia.
If we lynch me, as town, and then proceed to lynch Captain(because we must then) then it is an auto-lose for mafia if me or Captain are scum.

In other words, if we lynch me now then we autowin if one of me, Captain is scum, otherwise we lose.
If we lynch Captain now and after that, me, then we autowin if one of me, Captain or Memesky is scum, otherwise we lose…

This means that in all possible scenarios, it is better to lynch Captain than anyone else, because it gives us an autowin possibility if meme or captain are scum, allows the Innocent Child to survive, and allows us to win even if both Meme and Captain are town.

I mean sure we can lycnh me but mafia kill memesky even memesky are mafia tho.At least what htm says

I cant believe they actually killed marl over hippo

I can believe that. As I believe that at least one scum is in Cookies/Maximus/Firekitten, likely even two.
Marluxion was repeatedly pushing for Firekitten, which makes me suspect that Firekitten might be bad.
If there is scum in {captain, Memesky} then scum misplayed, and we should check for that, because not doing so is only beneficial for scum, especially if one in {captain, Memesky, Firekitten} is scum.

Okay here my thoughts.

If I was mafia I wouldn’t of killed marl I would of killed hippo. Reason is everyone would be sus of me because he was pushing onto me and he died last night. Now when I look on the board I see a

O Y Y
Y Y Y
X Y Y

Now my theroy.

Cookies killed marl so that Town would go the other way instead of lynching him. It makes sense as Town would want to go —> and killing marl made them not to want to lynch cookies.

Now like you said if we lynch captain today we force scum to kill meme. Then we need to lynch mafia that day or we lose.

Also another theory. Mafia is on the other side of the board.

@Captain who is most likely scum, why do you think maf killed marl?

1 Like

Absolutely possible.
However if this is true, and we lynch town on the other side right now, we lose.
And if it is true and we hit scum then we still have only one chance then because of the board.
So we gain nothing by lynching on the other side of the board today.
Absolutely nothing. But we lose two chances to make scum lose.
The only viable lynch is Captain. Nobody else.
I am aware that cookies gains benefits from this.

1 Like

lynching captain means i live another day which is always nice. even if hes town we would then be in Me + 2 town + 2 scum lylo situation, and we really should be able to get a scum from that.

2 Likes

Yeah and we either clear up 2 town spots whose reads from day 1 we could use… if they had any…
@Memesky , @Captain
As you have to die today/tonight because of the board(and hopefully one of you is scum so this won’t be necessary):
We need your reads. If you both are town then tomorrow we can combine the reads of four confirmed town and hopefully find the hiding mafia.
/vote Captain

1 Like

inb4 both meme and captain are mafia

That’s also possible(they could have done it to gain towncred but didn’t realize that they basically have to be lynched), but it is enough if one of them is mafia for us to win.
O??
???
XOX
if any mafia in bottom row
->
O?X
???
XOX
->
O?X
?OX
XOX
or
O?X
?XO
XOX

killing marl was so dumb lol, now they can’t kill me tonight either.

Having an IC alive with 5 ppl alive is not what u want