Can thou showeth this
okay I finished my wallpost
basically
I was reviewing Appel’s Iso to try to make sure of how I felt on Appel vs. Gorta and Appel-side interactions with Light are making me feel worse about her slot than I already did
dividing this up into two main categories for organization’s sake
I want to be clear that my point here is not ‘Appel was wrong about Light, therefore Appel is wolf’, my point is about her specific thought process, and how she handled Light vs. other slots
Appel’s read on Light
so at the beginning of her Iso, she starts out by saying that she found some questionable things in Light’s Iso (see below)
similarly, she calls out Light’s read on her here for being kind of questionable and IIOA
however, she never really pushes Light on this beyond asking him some very softball questions, like ‘state your reads’
this post in particular will be important later
then we have this … post … in which she goes through and notes good points and bad points for Light in his first hundred posts. there are … several things about this that ping me
- a lot of the ‘good points’ for Light are kind of a stretch. Like, to give a few examples, she includes as good points the fact that he said it was suboptimal to cuddle a 3p, and the fact that he pinged Wazza about placing a vote (in a post where Light pinged every non-voter). Obviously not all of them are this bad, but I find it hard to believe that town!Appel legitimately thinks that ‘pinging every non-voter to tell them to vote, when one non-voter is a known wolf’ is town-AI. It feels like she’s trying to force herself to come out with a townread.
- the points that are bad for Light are mostly actually decent arguments! this will be important later. (obviously not all of them, but she does raise legitimately reasonable points for why some of what Light did was questionable).
- the wallpost only includes his first 100 posts, and stops right before we get into some of the things I found really questionable with Light. I questioned Appel about this at the time; I’m willing to give her the benefit of the doubt that she didn’t have enough time to analyze the rest of the posts, but.
- the wallpost literally does not make a conclusion on Light’s alignment
she did eventually give a conclusion about Light’s alignment, after I asked her to
in this post. The thing that bothers me here is that … if I read through her Iso on Light … then I think the arguments for him being scum are legitimately better than the arguments for him being town? like, maybe this is hindsight bias from the fact that I know Light flipped scum, but if I look at her Iso it does not look like an Iso that leads naturally to the conclusion that Light is town.
this interaction is meh, could see it coming from either alignment.
and then this one is another one I find concerning. remember all the times I wrote ‘see below’? this is the ‘below,’ because I’m really confused about how she got to Light’s townlean on her being the only thing she’s conflicted about, when she explicitly called him out for many more things.
How Appel handled the fact that other people were scumreading Light
Appel has several interactions that feel like she’s trying to talk people out of scumreading Light (tbf this might partially be confbias on my part)
like this one – I was pushing Light at the time, and I feel like she was trying to get me to come up with reasons to doubt the read
and this follow-up question
it’s not damning on its own but it’s super leading
the remaining four quotes aren’t nearly as actively bad, but they represent a weird amount of focus on Light (particularly the last one, the others could all go either way).
As far as I could tell, Light was the only person Appel treated in this way (despite the fact that he was allegedly part of her PoE). Like, if she reacted this way to every person who people were pushing, or even every person that people were pushing that she townread, I’d be like ‘yes, this checks out,’ but she didn’t, she only treated Light that way
and like
sure, it’s theoretically possible that Appel just happened to interrogate everyone about the flipped wolf in particular and try to make people doubt their reads on him by sheer coincidence, that is definitely a thing that villagers can do sometimes
but I don’t think that’s what happened
This is what I did with everyone. I don’t see how the fact that I also did this with Light make it wolfy.
But you yourself said there was no conclusion, didn’t you? That colour post was low-effort because I didn’t feel like going through all the effort which would take even longer, and wanted to try something creative.
A lot of the good points negate the bad points. Did you not see that, or did you not realize it? That’s part of what made me more inclined to townlean him.
That would be because he was the person I thought was the most likely to flip town, and he was the main wagon. Why wouldn’t I do that? I wasn’t too active during D3 and had no read on Mole, and thought PKR was the most likely person to flip W yesterday. The fact is that it really doesn’t make sense for me to do with this other people because of the circumstances with Mole & PKR.
So I’m sorry, but that is kinda what happened.
the problem isn’t that you asked Light questions about his reads
the problem is that you pointed out the wolfy things he did but never pressed him on it or considered it a point against him
yes
that is indeed part of the problem I have with your post, and separately does not negate the issues I have with it
no, I legitimately didn’t
I know I have the benefit of hindsight bias here, but when I look at your ‘every good and bad thing’ wallpost, the red points seem a lot stronger than the green ones. I know some of the green points are cancelling out previous red points, but when I look holistically at all the points you raised I do not see how the conclusion those points lead you to is ‘Light is town’
no, the person you thought most likely to flip town was me
and yet there’s a substantial difference in how you treated people’s reads and pushes on Light, and how you treated people’s reads and pushes on me (which tbf you did at least semi-interact with occasionally, albeit mostly to shade them for it)
I think at this point there is never a world where I don’t vote Appel short of someone, like, literally posting something from wolfchat
given that this is the case I am probably going to do it soon
does anyone have, like, strong objections to this
Yes, and that was the deal-breaker which lead me to vote Light when I saw you were actually going to die if I didn’t. The point of time we’re talking about is when you weren’t even being wagoned, for what I can remember.
Alright. Can you show it?
sure
this is how you handled the fact that other people were scumreading Light
[quote=“Arete, post:3180, topic:84170”]
How Appel handled the fact that other people were scumreading Light
Appel has several interactions that feel like she’s trying to talk people out of scumreading Light (tbf this might partially be confbias on my part)
like this one – I was pushing Light at the time, and I feel like she was trying to get me to come up with reasons to doubt the read
this is how you responded to pushes on me (this is everything relevant I could find, but maybe I missed something, please point it out if so)
overall, you were much more focused on shutting down pushes on Light, despite the fact that he was in the PoE, and separately much more concerned in general about the fact that he was being wagoned
the second question in particular is … I honestly have no idea why it exists, other than … to try to make Gorta doubt his push on Light, because I was voting Light? despite the fact that you townread me? like I feel like it can’t possibly be that obvious but
/vote Appelsini
this is the conclusion my analysis has led me to
if it’s wrong I’m sorry
@clonedcheese @an_gorta_pratai if either of you is Mafia can you just end things rather than slowrolling?
alright
so
both Arete and Appel are in their scum metas
Arete
Arete enjoys being extremely aggressive
hence why they are quite easily caught by more experienced players when they are scum. they said themselves that it’s easy to tell:
Due to inherent high post volume + aggression, once things go wrong they go wrong fast.
If they are scum, this would be the game that everything’s clicking together for them.
Appel
Appel’s usually the “sit back and watch the show” kind - they watch the game from a third person view, analyze everything, and doesn’t take sides until necessary. I saw their scumplay firsthand in SFV and one other game, and they’ve shown similarities in other games I’ve played with them - their play doesn’t change by much and they are still analytical, but every attack, every question, and every defense is coordinated in advance.
The second part is problematic, in that her post on Light showing his goods and bads are the kind of defense/attack that she would do: in the scumchat, presumably, she said something along the lines of “Ima lightly push you and point out wrong things, let’s se where that goes”
haha get it, “lightly” push? get it? please? haha…
But because of the first part, I have a hard time seeing Appel as scum. They don’t become aggressive and pushy until necessary - MyLo would definitely fit that bill. But even in MyLo, they are still carefully considering between Arete and Gorta, coming to an Arete conclusion with a line of logic I can follow; this seems to me a townie generally lost between the two, reanalyzing, and coming to a conclusion. Sure they may be reserved and stand-back-y as scum, but I feel like they would’ve been a little more agressive during MyLo than they have been.
TL;DR: Appel is still analyzing and slowly coming to a conclusion even at MyLo, while Arete is acting aggessively, similar to calling for the Derps lynch. I find the second one to be more fitting of scum behavior, even after accounting for both parties’ usual behaviors.
uh
hm
math tells us that even if one of us is mafia this doesn’t really happen
what does this tell us about arete
no fucking clue
but I think he TMI’d something regarding their points/votepurchase/whatever
Vote Count
| Accused | Voters | Number |
|---|---|---|
| Appel | Arete | 1/3 |
| [Not Voting] | gorta, Appel, cheese |
Day 6 ends at 2020-10-15T08:00:00Z
maybe “meta” isn’t the right word
but it’s how I’d expect you to act as scum
based on past scum games + your town games
this isn’t villagery
like … she’s been trying to keep her options open all day, and she only made anything resembling any semblance of a conclusion once it became clear that I was almost always voting her here
at which point she proceeded to ignore her previous reads and decide that I’m the most likely wolf more-or-less on the basis that I’m pushing her
The post you quoted was literally me questioning Cloned for saying you were scum
Derps, and later Cloned, were the only ones voting you aaa