I’m getting ready in the morning, but I’ll check back again later. I’ll need time to think this through anyway.
Okay, well, the thread is still dead. I guess that’s to be expected. I think both town and scum aren’t quite sure anymore what’s going to happen.
Anyway, assuming we continue with our plan we had just in case it came to this, I guess I’ll be the one making the final decision. So might as well get started sooner than later. I hope that you both will be getting involved later.
Mech
So the way I see it, there’s no mech info confirming Gorta. His claim itself is kind of suspicious. Morocco sounds like some extra country given as a fake claim for scum. The role to check if a flip is altered is easily fakeable. And actually looking at the flipped scum, the one with the role that altered anything just says they alter investigations at night. Nothing about changing the flip.
Nightgale has the neighborhood role. We did see that Vul was in the neighborhood and was scum, so we know scum aren’t excluded. The assumption was that it is unlikely more than one scum would be included in the neighborhood, but I don’t think that can be accepted so readily anymore. It still does give a bit more mech credibility to Nightingale over Gorta.
Conclusion: Mech favors Nightingale over Gorta.
Solving
Nightgale has seemed more invested in solving than Gorta overall this game. Though Gorta doesn’t really do a whole lot as town despite saying he’ll be doing more. Admittedly looking through his ISO, it does appear he was involved a bit more than usual. However, his activity has dropped off quite a bit towards the end here. I suppose everyone’s has, but seems more stark for Gorta. This makes me wonder if he’s kind of given up and just hoping to squeak by somehow.
Conclusion: Solving investment favors Nightingale over Gorta.
Voting
For D1, the Majora cuddle was random between 2 tied V wagons. Gorta was on one of the wagons, but Ami (Nightingale’s slot) didn’t vote despite being there for EoD.
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For D2, this was the interesting vote between Arctic and Gorta. It has been assumed that this spewed Gorta as town. And this is really the only thing going for him. Nightingale did vote for Arctic , the scum flip. Gorta did as well, though his makes sense anyway because of self-pres. I’ll come back to this vote timeline later another post.
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For D3, the wagons were both V (ClonedCheese and Light ) as well. Gorta voted for Cloned , who was ML’d. Min was on that wagon as well. Nightingale was on Light’s wagon. So this be seen as Nightingale avoiding the V wagon. Vul had avoided either wagon by voting for Kyo instead. So did the scum split their votes? Or did Min and W!Gorta for some reason pile on Cloned ? I can’t think of any reason scum would particularly care about killing Cloned over Light .
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So for D1 to D3, Nightingale’s slot avoided voting on both town flips (and where the wagons were between 2 towns). This looks a lot like TMI on town flips and wanting to avoid being on those wagons. Gorta voted on both town flips.
Conclusion: Voting favors Gorta over Nightingale (both directly and from spew).
this is a really good post btw, but I will make a thing casing Nightingale myself
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Okay, that would be good. Thanks. I know it is late for you now, so won’t expect it until sometime tomorrow.
D2 Voting Timeline
So the main D2 wagons between Arctic and Gorta started with Centuries voting on Gorta. He didn’t give a particular reason other than pressuring someone in the PoE. Centuries was still a lost wolf at that point in time.
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Then after some discussions among people about Gorta, Arctic joined the wagon.
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Astand follows onto the wagon not long after.
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So already 3 scum on the Gorta wagon. Then there’s some wolf theater between Min and Arctic where Min is basically calling Arctic scum. Astand inserts a comment in the middle as well. Scultpor starts the Arctic wagon.
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Scultpor gets Min to join the wagon.
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Vul moves his vote to Gorta.
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ATNoName votes on Arctic, though also questioning Gorta’s slot. Eevee joins as well, which ends up tying the wagons.
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Then there’s lots of discussions and vote movements until the wagons build up to 6 votes each.
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Couple more votes get the wagons to 7 votes each.
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Then Vul breaks the tie by switching from Gorta to Arctic. And then the day ends with Arctic getting cuddled.
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Okay, there was tons to go through for D2. I didn’t read all the back and forth interactions closely, just enough to get the gist. I was mainly focused on the voting timeline between the Arctic and Gorta wagons. From what people said about how this spewed Gorta as town, I get the impression that people think from looking at the vote results that scum were trying to save Arctic by voting for Gorta. But I believe the timeline shows a possibly different view of what went on.
It looks like scum were possibly attempting to bus Gorta early on. Yes, it started with the lost wolf Centuries who wouldn’t really be part of the plan. But then a couple other scum jumped onto the opportunity. The Arctic wagon was later started by town and then built up alongside the Gorta wagon. So it may have just by chance got to be W/W wagons. Of course Arctic would stay on the Gorta wagon as self-pres. And Astand had to stay on Gorta since they had already built up a case on Gorta being scum.
Min flipped from Gorta to Arctic. Maybe the plan was still to try to push the Gorta bus. Min is known to switch votes around easily, so it wasn’t unusual. Vul joined back on Gorta as well.
But then when it was very close to EoD and looked like it might be tied and would be randed, Vul made the final switch so it wouldn’t rand. Not sure if this choice was made independently by Vul or together with the others. It very well could have been independent since the time was very tight.
The result makes both Vul and Gorta look very good going forward. Vul for being on the scum cuddle. And Gorta for appearing to have been used to try to save Arctic.
Now this is just another view of the D2 voting. It still could be W/V wagons as assumed. But after looking at this more closely, I’m not as confident going along with that assumption like the previous day.
Anyway, that’s enough for now. I have other stuff I really should be working on. 
I’ll check the thread later this evening around the time you both should be waking up.
In particular, I’m interested in what Nightingale has to say about the D2 voting now. She was fairly confident it spewed Gorta as town, but I’m wondering if she feels differently now. Yes, I realize I could be speaking with W!Nightingale, but a response from either alignment will be interesting.
She’ll have to say so because it’s between me and her. No one has counter claimed your role, I know my role, and she knows hers. From her perspective I have to be the mafia and from my perspective she is the mafia. Her reactions today have been interesting imho
The mix up doesn’t affect the read. I just typed the first part incorrectly but the result was basically correct.
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Yeah I’m interested in seeing her reaction today. Even though I’m currently leaning towards voting you, Gorta, I remember that Leafia was saying they were getting scum vibe on Nightingale. Now that’s not based on much, but Leafia was the night kill instead of me. So I have to consider whether this was done by W!Nightingale to keep from getting voted on. Leafia is known to often stick with their vibe and push hard on that, so the chance of persuading them might have seemed slim.
That explains it, so, you could be expected to vote me here. Leafia would have voted Night
I’m not entirely certain on my read, and I know this is important. I don’t want to screw this up.
Anyway, hope you’ll still be available later for the cross vote and any further discussion.