pffttt
Is there no investigation role?
Is Guill indirectly voting for Nika because he is?~
just to be clear red check is a scum confirmation right?
Iām still a bit behind with all the lingo
i wrote stuff overnight, gimme a sec and iāll paste it in here. Iām playing games with friends so imma dip after that.
pastedump incoming!
EoD1 Vote Count Analysis
Check out the rapid wagon shifts here. I mightāve said something immediately if Iād been on right at EoD, but I wasnāt, so hindsight 20/20 I guess.
- Aelin jumped off Wiisp and onto PKR, voicing paranoia.
- Wiisp jumped off Kaif and onto PKR, claiming it was self-pres even though PKRās wagon was only ahead of both Kaif and Wiisp by 1 vote, and also said he was sure PKR would flip town.
- Blitz swapped his vote from Wiisp to PKR and gave no reasoning.
- Tied top wagons = no exe, something I kind of forgot when I was initially looking at this.
Reads given within the last 15 minutes
- Aelin voted Wiisp in response to his post about CFDing within the last 10 minutes, effectively starting the CFD on him. She had PKR at null, didnāt want to vote him at first because min was on his wagon and she SRād min, and preferred to keep Kaif alive to ask him about his read on her. She said sheād rather vote Wiisp than Kaif, but ultimately voted PKR giving the reason as paranoia.
- Helz was against a Wiisp CFD because he thought the existing wagons already made enough sense and did not require a third.
- Kaif thought Aelin was locktown and joined the Wiisp wagon, advocating that Wiispās flip would give more information than PKRās. He described Wiispās posts as āfake and cheesyā. He said minās reluctance to place a vote was making him reconsider his SR on them, although their flip would yield plenty of information. Earlier in the day, Kaif had said he didnāt like the PKR wagon and didnāt think PKR would flip anything other than town. He also posted a reminder that Derps exists and has done basically nothing.
- Lukundo was unsure on Kaif, SRād Wiisp, and TRād PKR. He advocated for a CFD on Wiisp, but didnāt start it. When Aelin started the CFD to Wiisp, Lukundo voted when Silviu did (Iām assuming at the same time).
- Tilgarial SRād PKR more
- Wiisp thought Aelin and Kaif were wolfing, said Kaifās lack of self-pres was NAI, and that Aelinās CFD to Wiisp after Wiispās comment about last-minute CFDing looked like openwolfing. Wiisp also said he wouldnāt vote PKR or min. He only took his vote off Kaif and put it onto PKR to self-pres, changing the wagons from being tied on Kaif/Wiisp with PKR one vote ahead, to PKR being more securely the top wagon.
- Min encouraged the PKR wagon, saying that Kaif not self-presāing onto PKR was concerning them and meant he was probably town unless he was exactly w/w with PKR, which they thought unlikely (and later proved to be untrue). Min thought the CFD to Wiisp sucked.
- Night voted Kaif and didnāt like the PKR wagon.
- Blitz saw the CFD start, and wanted to vote Wiisp without risking Kaif becoming the top wagon. He decided to vote Wiisp anyway when Kaif placed his vote there. He voiced that he had Wiisp as null/scumlean and was fine with that CFD, but ultimately switched to PKR without any commentary.
- Silviu joined the CFD to Wiisp after Aelin, making him the first to join and actually stay on the wagon.
- Marl voted PKR, stating that heād rather PKR die over Kaif if it were between the two of them.
Observations
- I actually forgot that tied top wagons result in a no-exe until the point where Iām writing this, so that does change how Iām reading the wagon shifts a bit - at least in Wiispās case, he doesnāt look that bad from it.
- Blitz switching his vote from Wiisp, whom he scumleaned, to PKR, whom Wiisp was voting, was a yikes. (Unless Discourse wasnāt loading posts properly, in which case I wonāt question why Blitz voted PKR almost immediately after Wiisp did, but Iād still like to know why he voted PKR in the end if he thought Wiisp was wolfier.)
Iām not shielding Aelinās or Blitzās slot today tbh. I think Iāll shield Kaif, however, and I am undecided on Wiisp, but in hindsight I disagree with what Helz said about the wagons seeming reasonable and not needing a CFD, particularly since PKR flipped town. While I could see a Helz/Wiisp scumteam, I still think Helz is right about Lukundo having a poor choice in timing for suggesting a Wiisp wagon at the last minute rather than saying so earlier in the day. I wouldnāt throw a Helz/Wiisp team out of the range of possibilities, due to posts that may have been distancing attempts, but itās definitely not a guarantee.
On that note, based on Wiisp saying that Prophylaxis is a wolf if Wiisp gets night killed, I would almost hazard a guess that Prophylaxis would be town regardless of Wiispās alignment (and the only reason I could even see Wiisp getting killed tonight is if someone decides to frame Proph, since Wiisp got rooted into the consensus PoE at the last minute). Proph moved way up in my reads at some point during D1, from a scumlean to a townlean, so I feel comfortable saying this now. I had kept my thoughts to myself when Wiisp first said if there was a wolf between Helz and Proph, heād vote Helz out first because Proph is his friend, because I SLād Proph at the time and was trying to sort Wiisp, but now after taking ages to reach the conclusion that Proph is town, that post from Wiisp doesnāt really look that terrible. It also makes Wiisp look better if Proph is town imo, because my gut tells me I donāt think a wolf says that about a townie unless Helz is scum with Wiisp (hence a possible distancing attempt).
Also I feel extremely dumb for keeping my vote on PKR when he didnāt even show up to defend himself. I think he pretty much always defends himself from getting wagoned as a wolf, if my memory serves correctly. Shouldāve been obvious if Iād been paying attention to the thread, oops, but I was out for dinner with spotty data service and my last reply didnāt even send so I deleted it later once the thread had been locked (it was irrelevant to EoD and just a reply to Guillotina about Nightingale iirc, and ftr Iām currently thinking Night is town). Another note on PKR is that I totally forgot heād claimed (or rather, softed) his role and was reminded when he flipped.
tl;dr - I think the wagons at EoD mightāve been T/T and thatās why there wasnāt much else going on besides sitting votes, complaining about the wagons, and lack of self-pres, until the CFD formed on Wiisp. And the CFD onto Wiisp says nothing about Wiispās alignment but it does say something about the people who started/joined it.
Anyway, Iām not 100% sold on most of my reads yet, so if people want to question me or challenge my reads, go for it and Iāll debate with you. If you can make a convincing and well-founded case, I might be willing to change my mind. Also, I hate drafting posts and then literally dying in the night, and I know itās a possibility since it didnāt look like anyone was SRing me at the end of the day, but I chose to waste an hour of my life on this because I like writing down my thoughts as soon as I can after EoD.
4 Likes
Ohhh nevermind, I didnāt quite understood fully why they meant by āGot a red checkā anyways thanks.
Me switching back to PKR because with the votes were currently at a tie and I had seen Aelin swapping over to PKR. I wanted to avoid a possible tie and no lynch, Plus between both Kaif and PKR, I prioritised the former. Also, I didnāt have a chance to write a reason because I was trying to get my vote in as quick as possible before time runs out
2 Likes
Also Aeilin and Tilga looked really bad at CFD wii check one of them tonight.
1 Like
Before I vote Nika I want to make sureā¦
Would Guill resort to deception regarding something mechanical as a mafia?
(e.g. āThis person is guiltyā ------> The person flipped innocent ------> āI think I got framed results or they were disguisedā)