Cannot wait 4 juicy wallpost
Yes. Thatās correct.
Welp, okay.
(I aināt going to read those until I have to.)
IDK about being seasoned, but this game aināt her first.
EoD2 VC, 30 min before EoD but after the thread was reopened due to a mod error in closing it prematurely
Disclaimer: I think some of Eliās VCs before the final hour leading up to EoD mightāve been off, so I didnāt quote those. I think the first VC I quoted here is what we thought would be the āfinalā VC before it was revealed the thread closing was a mod error, so thatās a good place to start looking.
Quick thoughts:
ā¢ Iām guessing Tilgarial is right and thereās at least one wolf on their wagon. Itās possible that it was a pure wagon and half the town jumped on Tilga for their sucky vote on me, but I think it indicates that I am misclearing someone. Iām facing a huge dilemma because I was townleaning all of the players wagoning them, so I guess Iām in deep shit now with my reads. Time for my paranoia to kick in (and everyone elseās paranoia about me to kick in). Iāll look at Proph, Guillo and Nika first, and Aelin afterward. Iām not going to tinfoil my reads on Zone or Blitz right now. I have reasons for reevaluating those slots in the order I listed, but Iāll keep that to myself until Iāve actually gone through and looked at them. What I will say is that, Prophās comment on Blitzās then-impending flip did not look great (Derps pointed this out first), and Guilloās RT on Nika made me think of something that Iām gonna need to look into to evaluate more.
ā¢ Proph is right; Merc didnāt do much on D2. As I said in one of my last posts (when I voted Tilga), I started wondering if Merc holding onto her reads from D1 is indicative that she has a lack of TMI on the current thread state, as she was the only one who left her vote on Kaif. If Iām right about this, itās >rand town-indicative. Iāll try to read around her slot today and see how other people are treating it. If sheās town, thereās scum on her wagon for sure, and possibly more on her wagon than on Tilgaās.
ā¢ Helz and Proph have both been letting me either steer the thread or encouraged me to lead the town so people can follow, and considering I was wrong about PKR, Tilgarial, and am probably also wrong about Merc, Iām getting a huge red flag from them right now (moreso Helz than Proph). Usually when I end up surviving for a while in the game, itās because my reads absolutely suck and Iām a very loud and very wrong townie. Iām not that surprised; my early reads are often not that great, but I can usually straighten them out later on.
ā¢ Derps was kind of right when he said if Blitz is town, Proph could be scum (and I know he was more certain than I am, but Iām giving him credit for making me consider that Proph might not actually be town). See posts #5334 and #5350 for reference. While I think Lukundo is right about Proph being decently solvey in the thread, I canāt help but wonder about his votes. Proph moved his vote from Blitz to Tilga which reads as somewhat opportunistic.
ā¢ In posts #5392 and #5395, Guillo says if Blitz is town then scum must be pretty angry about their agenda target being saved. I think these are important posts to note, but Iāll admit I donāt know what they indicate.
ā¢ Post #5397 by Helz, in reply to Lukundo, is something I think could come from a wolf. Iām thinking wolf!Helz could be whiteknighting me and encouraging me to push my incorrect reads so that he can hide behind looking analytical but not having to push agenda himself. All it really takes is one loud, wrong town player to allow the scum to coast off their reads, and they can fly somewhat UTR. If itās between Helz and Lukundo, Iād guess Helz is the wolf. I also think there are some weird associations around Helzās slot that Iāve been looking at, and Iām trying to figure out whether theyāre useful or not. I believe if Helz is a wolf, heās very likely distancing from at least one of his partners and has possibly already tried to bus them. He has the potential to go very far in the game as scum, especially if he hardbusses a teammate for towncred.
ā¢ I just remembered that Lukundo was the first to claim Town Child on D1, when he thought Marl was suspicious for claiming ābasically ICā and said he didnāt think both innocent child and āchildā could exist in the same game as roles. I realize now that it makes him far more likely to be town because thereās no way a wolf would see their role as āMafia Childā and reach the conclusion that a town IC couldnāt exist. Townlocking him and not tinfoiling. It also makes it more likely that Helz and Guillo are wolves pushing back on Luk and trying to discredit his reads (tell me if Iām misremembering who was pushing whom).
ā¢ Encouraging people to CFD to me as an RT failed completely lol, I guess I wonāt do that again. It looks like only town was on me so I guess the wolves knew what I was doing.
ā¢ Theres at least 1, likely at least 2 scum within Helz/Proph/Guillo/Wiisp/Aelin. If Wiisp is town, I actually think Proph might be scum and purposely didnāt kill Wiisp. I realize that when Wiisp said that if Proph was a wolf, heād kill Wiisp, I used flawed logic in saying that Proph must be town regardless of Wiispās alignment. Of course town!Wiisp wouldnāt know what alignment Proph is, and wolf!Proph would be smart enough not to kill Wiisp literally right away when Wiisp is being wagoned. But with the excuse of Wiisp claiming babysitter, itās possible Proph might go for a kill on him now to justify the kill as being on a PR who could potentially take down another townie with him, instead of justifying the kill as being paranoid that Wiisp will figure him out. I think if Wiisp is town heāll just get NKād so thereās no real point in figuring out his alignment right now. If heās still around in LyLo as a claimed babysitter, thereās obviously a major problem, but I honestly donāt see that happening.
ā¢ I reached the conclusion that Wisdom is town because I finally see what they saw in Helz and Guillo. I owe an apology to her for saying that I was going to completely disregard her reads until she flipped town; I wanted to see whether Guillo would push me for saying that. I get the feeling that although her playstyle might totally differ from what Iām used to, sheās perceptive, and because of the way she went about giving her reads, if she gets nightkilled, itās for her accuracy and not because sheāll be consensus townread.
ā¢ Tilga didnāt notice that Nightingale was replaced by Wisdom. Wish Iād noticed that sooner tbh because I could well have derp cleared them. Oh well. I trust Tilgarialās reasoning on the Min read as much as my own so Iām going to lock Min as town and not tinfoil them.
ā¢ Helz not being around for the first thread close chaos when Blitz looked like the yeet wagon for the day, coming in after the thread reopened and questioing why the heck I was being wagoned, and then plopping a vote down on Merc because I said she was most likely to flip wolf, before leaving again was a bit wolfy. Give me reasons why Helz is town other than that heās been actively encouraging the thread to be productive. I know I said before that I thought this was a good look for him, but I also said it was helpful regardless of his alignment and I didnāt want him dead yet because it was still useful to town. I think encouraging the thread has had its uses and heās well within yeet range now, especially because as I mentioned above, I suspect he might have been using me to push agenda. Regardless of whether you scumread me or not, you should consider my SR on Helz. If you think Iām town, listen to me on this. And if you think Iām scum, remember I like bussing my buddies at some point down the road.
ā¢ Gonna have to reevaluate Nikamara yet again. Iāll retract the townread I have on her for now. I think Guilloās fake redcheck RT on her on D2 is definitely worth looking into. If Nika hadnāt fullclaimed in a panic, I would have suggested it could be w/w theater, but thereās most likely exactly 1 scum between the two of them (and a small chance theyāre both town). I donāt think I was analyzing all the possibilities of their alignments together when the RT occurred because I was already pretty confbiased into townreading both of them, but looking at other things theyāve each done in the thread, I think one of them is a wolf.
ā¢ I really still think Blitz is town but if someone wants to investigate him just to confirm, thatās totally fine and I wouldnāt be against it.
ā¢ Going back again to thinking that Wiisp/Aelin might be T/T. I hate trying to read into their interactions, but Aelin made a very reasonable case on Wiisp (i.e. it doesnāt smell like agenda) and Wiisp has signed himself a death sentence by claiming babysitter, because either he gets killed for his claim, or he stays alive for a suspiciously long amount of time after claiming and gets voted out anyway. I think if Aelin were to push agenda, sheād pick a different target by now instead of tunnelling the same one for two days, and possibly even āclearā him off the sync rate and resulting neighborhood by using compatibility as an excuse to clear herself as well. The one thing that I want to look at again to make sure Iām not missing something is Aelinās read on Tilgarial. They wolfed together in a previous game, so Iām curious as to why Aelin thought Tilga was wolfing here.
ā¢ Zone sheeping my vote (or something) onto Tilgarial to break the tie at the end is >rand town so my townread remains on him.
ā¢ Derps pushing me when nobody was actively scumreading me is >rand town. Heād find a different target if he were the informed minority and I understand why he thought it was weird I was sheeping Marlās reads. He hadnāt caught up on the thread, either, so that kind of confirms my point about him being uninformed. His vote was on Merc at EoD, but he had also voted Merc once before, earlier in the game on D1 (post #2592), stating it was a gutread.
ā¢ Ftr I was about to ask Tilga why they were paranoia reading me as scum and also asking me at the same time to analyze the wagonomics when the thread closed, but didnāt manage to post in time (and they wouldnāt have had the chance to respond anyway). Now I understand why Tilga said in an earlier (wolf)game that paranoia sometimes gets the better of them lolā¦ I did consider that when they gave their reasoning on voting me, and post-flip itās given me insight into the (lack of) reaction to lightning wagoning me from the wolves. Anyway, Iām not opposed to people investigating me if they want to; I donāt think itās a waste of a check if a dead townie left a legacy paranoia read on me, even if I know Iām town and will be greenchecked.
ā¢ Iāve made up my mind on which of Marlās reads I think were accurate or not, and I think his town list was more accurate than his scum list. Merc is probably right that he got killed for being a mason who was pretty much confirmed by one of the other masons. I have a feeling Marl cleared a handful of townies but didnāt quite nail the scumteam perfectly, and I know who I want to look at now, so Iāll be shielding/pushing slots based on what I think from now on and not just based on what Marl thought. One full day of holding onto Marlās legacy reads was enough for me to get a handle on this.
Windās current readlist (not tiered):
Towncore:
Silviu
Lukundo
Min
Townread:
Blitz
Zone
Derps
Townlean:
Merc
Wiisp
Kaif
Aelin
Outer PoE:
Null:
Nikamara
Lemon
Erika Chloe
Inner PoE (at least one wolf if not more):
Proph
Guillo
Helz (scumread)
Scum
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Anyway my strongest thoughts at the moment after skimming some of D3 are that Zone and Merc are town, Helz is very likely scum, and idk about Guillo.
Donāt townread me for posting a wall. Pick at least part of it, read it, and see if you follow my reasoning.
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