Discussion: 3 of the same claim doesn't make them more suspicious

#21

yeah but what about when there’s 3 hunter claims?

cause maid

2 Likes
#22

Cuz math and statistics
Its a bit complicated

#23

3 princes

1 Like
#24

Why is it more likely that they contain a wolf?

#25

but the fact that there are two other Sheriff claims does change the wolf likelihood of the third Sheriff, since at least one is guaranteed

#26

How can you know the 3rd sheriff wasn’t the game’s guaranteed sheriff?

1 Like
#27

sherrif itself is a little different but the main point still stands

1 Like
#28

this logic could still be used in “2 sherrif claims and a dead sherrif exe exe exe”

1 Like
#29

They might have been, but if there’s only one you can be almost certain that they’re legitimate

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#30

it shouldn’t be that complicated unless the rand is intentionally skewed to prevent a 3rd of a class from spawning

1 Like
#31

Maid is an extremely common fake claim.
Its never wrong to exe them. Especially with 3 people claiming Maid and taking the most sus of them.

#32

exing maids is fine

but exeing a maid on the basis that there are 2 others is fallacious

the claims of 2 other people should not effect the viability of a 3rd person

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#33

We aren’t talking about just one, we’re talking about your argument that if 2 claims have been made, then the 3rd one is more likely to be false.

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#34

Is the third Maid legit, a guide that will do significantly better than rand:

‘WTF 2 and 6 both claim Maid I am also Maid exe one of them’ - probably BD

2 claims Maid
6 claims Maid
third Maid says nothing about this until upped for claim - probably evil

2 Likes
#35

Nah, I claim maid D0 as any and all classes.

#36

And post logs daily, especially as King

1 Like
#37

If two Sheriffs have claimed, the third one is more likely to be evil than the world where all claims are out and only one Sheriff has claimed

#38

This is a logical fallacy. Exing for the wrong reasons doesnt invalidate the exe.

#39

Counterpoint: They didn’t want to claim because the scum would’ve then known all of their hardcounters and would’ve paraded to kill them.

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#40

there can be other reasons

but it is fallacious to push someone based off of a fallacy

1 Like