[FM] Lord of the Rings Forum Mafia - (7/25) - Completed - Mafia Wins!

That’s cute. Maybe you should do some “hardcore investigative work” yourself.

@Ami

We’re not going away if you just dodge our accusations. :wink:

I’ll do some tonight just for you bbe.

Are you admitting that this is just a vanity vote for you?

The connection between my post and your question is so tenuous this is probably a reaction test.

I’ll be on later when I’ve done some more reading.

Oh well if you mean tonight as in not night 1, then I can’t wait. :popcorn:

Good morning, I’ve just woken up.
This is a very important day - the day I prove I’m town and I messed up really badly.

First, /unvote

What even is a ‘desperado’? Throughout my wind tunnel I didn’t even ask what it was despite not knowing that.

@Universal

Don’t ignore me please.

You asking What that role is?

Why would you bleed when you can just not bleed And still claim it

Yes.

I’m under the impression it’s a suicide vig right now, but I might be wrong.

I’d like to have clarity on that. I tunneled too hard to think about it before.

Attacks player
If player is town they suicide And town player lives
If player is scum they live And scum player dies

Okay, so it’s exactly what Alice claimed it was.
It might’ve seemed like a stupid question but I wanted clarity on the term.

Right. Moving on.

I definitely, absolutely tunneled Alice there as soon as the reaction test began. I’ve never seen her perform a reaction test before, so when she claimed to use a delayed dayvig on Ginger, I immediately assumed she was openwolfing and decided to tunnel her to hell and back.

If so many people think I’m scum for doing so then the tunnel must’ve been the completely wrong thing to do. I wasn’t really thinking about it that way. I believed Alice was guaranteed to flip scum for the delayed dayvig and I didn’t believe the claim it was a reaction test.

Well, that changed now. Alice is 100% provable during the night and I failed to see it before. My tunnel was really harmful actually, so I’d like to apologize for it immediately.

I swear my actions throughout the day make a degree of sense. Talk to me and I’ll explain them - I honestly don’t even know where to start.

Maybe I should just post stream-of-consciousness thoughts - that might be the best way to do this, actually.

Point is, I don’t think Alice is scum anymore. I was way too deep in my tunnel yesterday to acknowledge all the reasons why she’s provable and shouldn’t be the lynch, and why I’m suspicious for pushing an Alice lynch.

If her claim ends up fake, then she’s scum. But lynching her before she has a chance to self-resolve, which is just one night followed by a day with two lynches (so we can easily lynch her and still have time for more if she lied), is a bad idea. I have no idea how I didn’t see this before. I guess this is what happens when I deathtunnel.

That’s probably the most important thing I have to explain right now. The other things come next. For now, I should reevaluate my scumreads. ‘Lynch Alice’ is not an acceptable scumread.

Desperado dosen’t count lol

and by that I mean: Shit, fuck, and lolicibalus

Give opinions

Not yet, please, I still have homework from last night to finish off.

Can you at least vote kai or boss

No, because I haven’t read them and I won’t have until this afternoon. I’m not so resigned to being out of it this game that I’m going to blindly vote somebody I have no opinion on.

So here’s where my head is at at this point. I’m going to go to bed now, if you all have questions about any of these I’ll get to them in the morning.

Town

Firekitten: Town. I want to say they’re one of the people who hyperposts as town, which they’re doing this game (…not going to lie, I didn’t actually Iso the entirety of their posts :eyes:) but even if we set that aside on the assumption they’ve evolved their contributions feel genuine and gamesolvey. I’d strongly expect them to flip town here.

Hja: Town. Basically the world’s easiest meta-read after Magnus. She exists in the thread here to an extent that she pretty much never does as scum.

Vulgard: Town. His pushes feel natural to me and we’ve mindmelded too many times for it to make sense for him to be scum. As far as I can tell the main reason people have for scumreading him is that he had a “bad reaction” to Alice openwolving as a reaction test, but Alice was acting super scummy there and saying that the person who’s acting scummy is acting scummy is the normal reaction, actually.

Evil_Ginger: Town. Their Iso reeks of newbtown, like, I’m not going to say their analysis is good but it’s not the sort of analysis you come up with as evil, it draws way too much attention to themself to be the sort of statement you make of newbwolf and their reactions have been super pure.

Hippolytus: Moderate townlean. I don’t think this level of erratic confidence is likely to come from scum, and I see decent progression on his reads (especially the Maxi one) which seems to be solidifying into pushes. Some people were scumreading him for talking overly much about mechanics but I actually see his certainty in the mechanics discussion as town, I’d expect scum to be more likely to sheep popular maps and such to blend in. The reaction test on PKR that led to him outing his role isn’t a great look, but I’m inclined to blame Astand and PKR for that.

Solic: Townlean. I don’t think scum!Solic is as insistent on the vanity-wagon on the map as Solic was here, particularly not when so many people immediately scumread him for it. Also, mechanics talk aside, his reads and progression have felt very natural to me.

Simon: Townlean, something about his progression feels really natural to me and there were a couple of spots where I felt like we mindmelded, not to the degree of mindmeld I was feeling with Vul but enough to push Simon up on my list.

Datbird: Townlean. I’m liking Datbird’s solviness here, it feels pretty genuine to me, and this is more of a personal thing but I like how he’s putting in effort specifically to help Andrej and the other newbies improve their reads, which I unironically think is town AI because (a) it means the newbies have better reads and are more likely to catch scum, and (b) it makes them harder to mislynch, like, unless literally all of the newbies somehow rolled scum, which is ridiculously unlikely, I’m not seeing scum motivation there. Dat’s also one of the few people here who I’ve been on a scumteam with, and on a gut-read level he’s not really acting like he did in Short Fuse.

Teleology: Sliiight townlean. I’m actually seeing her posts as pretty solvey this game, and I’ve caught a couple things that look like derpclears to me (e.g. not being sure whether a freaking claimvig was scum aligned), though I know she’s faked derpclears before. More to the point, I was able to pick up that she was scum in the NFoL by SoD2, when most people were still townreading her, so I think I have at least a decent handle on reading her in particular and she feels townie to me.

Boss: Slightest possible townlean. I was scumreading him earlier for his lack of solviness but he’s picked up a lot in solviness since then, which is way more typical of his town meta. At this point I’m basically watching to see if he keeps it up or if he stops now that the pressure’s off of him.

Null

Chiang, STB, Uni, Andrej, Kai, Derp, Squid: Null. I can’t actually remember anything any of them did apart from Chiang roleflishing after PKR got vigged and Derps claiming a bleed; I’m almost tempted to put Chiang as TWTBAW just for that but I’m keeping this group in null for now. I’m inclined to say we let Derps resolve himself by bleeding out,

Scum

Maxi: Slight scumlean, I can’t put my finger on it but something about his posts just feels off, and it’s bugging me, half because I don’t even know what it is about him that’s bothering me!!

Ici: I had a gutread on Ici as town before but I re-read his Iso and it’s basically all mechanics talk + a push on Solic, with brief mention of Vulgard and almost no discussion of anyone else. From a player of his level I’d expect him to do more than interact with 1.5 people.

Marshal: Moderate scumlean, feels like he’s trying to blend in, apart from the Derps push he’s mostly going along with everyone else’s consensus reads, which from a player of his experience level suggests that he’s likely to be scum.

Astand: literally everything about their Iso is a trainwreck, from their random constant shading of people to their insistence that they don’t care about this game at all just because two town died. This is my strongest scumread who hasn’t claimed ~self-resolving~ yet, and they’re the one I want to push for the day. She also has strong associations with Alice, who I’m scumreading even more strongly.

Alice: Super scummy, my strongest scumread right now based on how she’s behaving consistently with her scum games and not her town ones . I’m looking here at her insistence on pushing lurkers and obvious newbtown, which from a player like her who can, you know, tell the difference between newbscum and newbtown, is really opportunistic. Plus, her response to accusations on her has been OMGUSing and saying that it’s scummy to shade people who claim to be self-resolving, and lowkey implying that her being solvey makes her town when we know she’s capable of powerwolfing. At this point the only reason I’m not pushing her nearly so aggressively as I was is to give her the chance to confirm on Vul.

I don’t really know much about balance so I’m not sure how many scum we should expect there to be in this set-up, but assuming there’s like 5-7 I’d say there are most likely at least one scum hiding in my nullreads, maybe more, and possibly one in my townreads; I basically never expect more than 2 scum in my townreads, and there’s pretty much no chance of there being scum in any of the top four. Astand should be the lynch today, with the dayvig agreed upon by the town. Personally I’d rather use the poison forest map whose name I forget if we want to masskill lurkers rather than spending the dayvig to kill one.