[FM] Lord of the Rings Forum Mafia - (7/25) - Completed - Mafia Wins!

[Firekitten]

Can we use Rohan the next day so we can get information from wagons today? We should do Bree because then it denies mafia the chance to get rid of someone who would advocate for their death in the two lynches next day

[Hippolytus]

Something tells me evilginger isnt looking for lost wolves lol

[Alice]

Solic probs. His play reminds me way too much Ritual Mafia 3 for my liking as he has no focus and none of the shit he’s been posting makes sense at all. His comment on why he’s hiding his townreads look like a terrible-ass excuse not to make one as there’s very unlikely to have conversion here.

[Marshal]

Vulgaíd Mega-Isolatíon

Vulgard

@Vulgard

Rivendell doesn’t look terrible to me. There should be at least a few consensus townreads at EoD so we could let them get the heal and guarantee at least one consensus townread lives to D2.

Minas Tirith is probably better D2->D3 in my opinion. I expect more wagons to pop up D2 because of night results, so the first effect could be helpful.

Or we could get Mordor out of the way because the effect gets stronger for scum as the game goes on?

Isengard is… probably fine right now. The first effect benefits both factions, the second too - if we have town vigs. Somebody lives through a vig = suspicious. Actually this is one of the best choices right now I think.

Mount Doom is… weird? I don’t know if it benefits us at all. It seems difficult to control and might lead to something similar to a random lynch. And it also causes a lot of death N1 but that’s less of an issue since it’ll narrow things down, making it easier to establish the PoE.

/vote Isengard

I think this map is the best for D1.

Great start IMO. Here we have solvey vul with good conculsions. I like the enterance

@Vulgard

I see where you’re going with this. It might be better later on for that reason though? I’m actually not sure.

Can maps be picked twice?

@Vulgard

/vote Mount Doom

Good job, you sold me.

D1 is going to be hell with this map on though.

Kinda wierd progeression, but it is, after all, early game.

@Vulgard

Volcanic Turmoil: All killing abilities are compulsive tonight.

This might actually be helpful to determine how many killers there are in total, not counting possible saves from protectives.

Good point

@Vulgard

@Solic Why do you think Shire is good? Plurality is good in my opinion, especially D1.

More and more townie enterance. Me likey much.

@Vulgard

I want other people (nudge nudge Solic) to make their cases for specific maps because it should help with reads (especially later on).

Encouraging reads, townie to me. IDC what people say about it being NAI, it’s a town thang to me.

@Vulgard

Majority with 25 people is 13 if I’m counting correctly.
If the wagon ends up being town it’s going to be hard to find the scum on the wagon, but not impossible; we could always try establishing a PoE between the voters on the wagon.
I disagree with Ici on majority being absolutely terrible, though I still think plurality is better.
Not sure if thinking majority is better D1 is AI.

More solvey-ness. Really liking vulgard here.

@Vulgard

Weewooweewoo scumslip

Things kinda take a turn here.(also this wasnt a scumslip)

@Vulgard

FK thinks it’s bad and you’re bad
let’s CFD to Mordor

Starting to have a drop in solveyness.

@Vulgard

On second thought, it’s unlikely we will get a scum lynch on Mount Doom anyway. It should be easy enough for scum to propel wagons on scum to a higher amount of votes so a town gets lynched instead.
It does provide information for later though, especially when more flips happen.

It picks back up here. Reminded by a scumchat bud, maybe?

@Vulgard

There’s going to be a lot of vote hopping at EoD and sorting between opportunistic town and scum is going to be difficult.
By choosing Mount Doom D1 we’re deciding how we will play for the next couple of days.
I’m genuinely not sure who’s right in this argument.

After the drop off in talk quality, vul has been picking it back up.

@Vulgard

I just don’t know how to help

Which map do you want? That would help.

@Vulgard

I’m starting to wonder if the Mount Doom voters actually understand what they’re voting for.

@Evil_Ginger Asking again. Why are you voting Mount Doom. Which map do you want and why.

Alright Vul is looking townie here, I like it.

@Vulgard

Bree is actually really good.

/vote Bree

Basically nobody dies at night unless immunity is bypassed. Mafia investigation succeeds but I doubt they have more than two.

Good reasoning, weird explination

@Vulgard

A large amount of nightkills N1 doesn’t really benefit town statistically unless you’re convinced all vigis will be good at reading and shoot at scum voters.
I’m not convinced.

There were a few more quotes before this too, but vul seems very anti-mount doom now.

@Vulgard

…Wait, yeah.
Vigs can kill town but can’t kill scum.
Scum can’t kill at all.

This isn’t as good as I thought it would be. However, it’s still going to help sort out divisive slots without scum being able to kill consensus townreads.
It’s worse than I thought but still not terrible.

Starting to give some good breasoning(get it?!). Me likey

@Vulgard

Rohan is bad right now because we need majority for both lynches and I don’t think that’s going to be easy, especially since day phase is not going to be extended.

It’s way better around D3.

More good stuffff.

@Vulgard

She posted more or less like she’s posting right now. Basically had a really scummy D1.

@Vulgard

Yeah this really feels like Tele’s town game to me.
Last time she was town she was my top scumread for posting like this and now she’s doing that again in a game we’re both in.
I don’t think she’d do that as scum.

An actual read on an actual player. I want more of this.

@Vulgard

Ginger might be a good vig shot if his wincon doesn’t align with town.

There was another post where he thought ginger was neut. Huh.

@Vulgard

I wouldn’t push Ginger but I would vig him right now.

Dafuq is this. why the fuck is this.

@Vulgard

Who would you vote right now?
Top 2 scumreads/townreads.

@astand

I don’t give a fuck about those 2 reads things.

I’d vote Andrej for starters

@Vulgard

Okay, if you don’t want to help me read you then be my guest.
Isn’t Andrej typically a slanker? Doesn’t seem like a great direction for voting.

Reaches out to astand, gets hostility, returns calmly. Great look IMO.

@Vulgard

I didn’t like the fact he automatically sheeped your map vote for seemingly no reason.
Feels like he was trying to blend in with someone who’s not being scumread for towncred.

We share similar andrej feelings.

@Vulgard

Lothlorien

@Vulgard

This map seems absolutely awesome for town lategame and I won’t allow this to be voted d1/d2/d3 ever.

I disagreed here. I wanted reasoning because I sorta disagree.

@Vulgard

The reasoning is that when people have claimed it reveals all possible lies in the claims, and makes it possible to figure out who performed the factional kill. Besides it can potentially confirm a town or two which makes it even better for a LyLo situation, or when the game is close to LyLo.

I Kiiiiiinda get it but still dislike the reasoning.

@Vulgard

f it’s good in LyLo then it’s good for town lategame and you’ve just confirmed my point.

Dont like that attitude.

@Vulgard

To be fair giving someone a vig early on is better than giving someone a vig in LyLo. Less risk involved + town still has the opportunity to guide the shot.

Here we see the Mordor reasoning come out. I like mordor, but not this reason in particular

@Vulgard

If the hammerer uses the vig weirdly and without consulting with town then they’re outed scum.

A better reason, yes.

@Vulgard

Which is why I want this to be picked early.
I can totally see scum manipulating town to pick it later and town losing the game because of it.

I do like this reasoning more. I would like this early game(especially for hippo vigshot)

@Vulgard

Skim it
Also what’s your map choice

@Vulgard

We’ve mostly been scumreading and discussing map choices, no huge revelations. I’ve been pushing Mordor recently because I think getting this out of the way early is good. We can direct the person with the dayvig D2 - especially since Rohan is very likely to get picked D2.

I said ‘skim it’ because that’s all I have to say. Reading the entire thread is likely to make you feel lost. Skim messages and make judgments based on how the posts make you feel + what motivation you sense behind them.

That’s the essence of scumhunting

@Vulgard

Helm’s Deep is good if our townreads are alive. Which means it’s a great followup to Rohan because a day with Rohan is going to end with a lot of consensus townreads.

Mirkwood is… odd. It might be good right now if we play our cards right and force scum to swap votes.

I still think Mordor is great right now.

More helpful Vul, which I really do like.

@Vulgard

If you were scum you wouldn’t lurk, for instance. This applies to a lot of other players here.

I actually disagree here. @Vulgard please give reasoning for this.

@Vulgard

Currently I’m focusing on maps because it’s the map voting stage.
When the map is chosen it’s tunneling time. I’m holding off on presenting most reads because I don’t want people to know I’m scumreading them.
That way I can take people off-guard.

He gives an honestly good response. I guess we will have to wait and see how he progresses in the lynch phase.

Conculsion: Vulgard is a Fairly strong townlean
Free of AtE, full of good discussion, decent progression, and fits in with the only vul meta that I know. I actually hadn’t read Vul’s earlier posts(and encourage others to do so) but it seems town to me.

<3

[Arete]

Magnus is basically the world’s easiest metaread in most games, we should honestly have a pretty good grasp of his alignment by the end of today. The only reason he’s constantly getting mislynched is that no one actually bothers to look at his meta, they just see ‘oh, Magnus is acting scummy’ when his town meta is super scummy.

[Firekitten]

Have you actually been in a game with him as scum

[Firekitten]

@Marshal

Kinda wierd progeression, but it is, after all, early gam

This is weird

[Marshal]

Nope.

But i have been in(at least I think) A towngame with vul and I trust vul.

[Firekitten]

@Marshal

picks back up here. Reminded by a scumchat bud, maybe?

I don’t get how your position is changing between every 3 posts of this

[Evil_Ginger]

I’m still debating on who is going to help me help town win.

[Alice]

I have a very stupid read on Vulgard/Marshall that may make them both town.

[Hippolytus]

Evil who do u shoot if i give u a gun now

[astand]

Legal read at least?

[Arete]

@firekitten

We should do Bree

Wouldn’t it make more sense to save Bree for what would otherwise be effectively a MyLo scenario, to turn it into not that?

[Marshal]

I treat every iso seperately. Kinda just throwing thoughts out there.

It’s obviously not the best, but has given me preeeety good insight

[Alice]

Yeah, but it may out them as important PRs if I’m right.

[Firekitten]

I have a very very stupid read that makes marshal town as well but I don’t know if I should say it as it could hurt his feelings

[Marshal]

Is it calling me dumb or my playstlye bad.

Because if so, feel free to throw it out there.

Im used to it

[Firekitten]

oh so it’s that stupid

interesting move, let’s say how that plays out for cotton

[Emilia]

Delet this