[FM] Mafia Academy 1 - Mafia Victory

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#2244

Retrospective votecounts:

(according to flips)

Day 1:

PKRiestess (6): Geyxy, Derps, Simon, Marshal, Nerbins, Aretted
Nerbins (4): Jake, Maxwell, Astand, PKRiestess
Kai (2): Mercenary, Shurian
Aretted (2): PoisonedVulgard, FireKatze
Marshal (1): Kai
Jgoesemist (1): Maximus

Day 2:

FireKatze (9): Astand, PoisonedVulgard, Geyxy, Jake, Derps, Nerbins, Maximus, Aretted, Maxwell
Mercenary (4): Kai, Simon, FireKatze, DatBird
Geyxy (1): Shurian

Day 3:

Mercenary (7): Maxwell, Astand, Aretted, PoisonedVulgard, Nerbins, Simon, DatBird

Day 4:

DatBird (5): Maxwell, Astand, PoisonedVulgard, Wazza (Kaiā€™s slot), Aretted
Maxwell (2): DatBird, Shurian
Maximus (1): Nerbins

I gather some important stuff from this.

  1. Kaiā€™s slot (currently Wazza) is l o c k c l e a r and I will fight everyone who argues against it. Look at the day 1 votecount. Two mafia were voting him and no one else. A pure scum wagon (even a small wagon) does not form on a partner at EoD, thatā€™s just dumb unless itā€™s some hyper distancing move. These two votes would be much better used on someone like Nerbins. However, they were not used on Nerbins. Why is that?

Which brings me to my second point.

  1. Nerbins is probably scum. Again, look at the day 1 votecount. Nerbinsā€™ wagon is confirmed town -> town -> neutral claim -> scum. Only one scum vote on the counterwagon and itā€™s the scum that got lynched. Three of PKR/Priestessā€™s partners were voting elsewhere and none of them bussed PKR/Priestess with their votes. They were probably trying to save that slot since they were not voting it. However, for some reason, they did not try to save it by voting Nerbins. And thatā€™s probably because Nerbins is scum and we had S/S wagons day 1. Thatā€™s the only logical explanation.

There is more evidence toward this.

The scumteam clearly loves singular distancing votes. Take a look at d2 Mercenary wagon. It goes locktown (to me) -> locktown (to me) -> flipped town -> scum. The wagon was on scum. A single scum vote was there and not any more.

Day 3. Same thing with Mercenary. The scumteam didnā€™t hardbus Merc for some reason, there is only one confirmed scum vote in there and maybe a second one.

The only time scum voted scum this game, it was a single vote.

Which brings me back to the d1 Nerbins wagon. There is no way the scumteam doesnā€™t go for it and save PKR/Priestess when that was clearly their intention VC-wise. At most, only one of them voted PKR/Priestess. If they did not want to save that slot, they could have just bussed it. But they did not. They refused to vote on the counterwagon.

Again, I believe the only logical explanation for this is that Nerbins is just scum and if they voted on the wagon, a member of their team would die anyway.

  1. Simonā€™s votes are still great and heā€™s l o c k t o w n.
#2245

I know this is a very short post, but I really like the tone of this SoD, and alongside my general townlean on Derps, I think heā€™s town.

This leaves my slot and Arete/Disquieted.

I know Iā€™m town, and I think Arete/Disquieted have cleared themselves very well. Notice how I gradually stopped pushing and scumreading them. Thatā€™s because they got more towny, and I still believe that. I think their slot is just town.

Thatā€™s all.

Arete & Disquieted
Astand
Simon
Kai -> Wazza
Vulgard & Squid
Derps
Nerbins

Thatā€™s my take right now. If we lynch Nerbins and Astand and the game still doesnā€™t end, Iā€™m going to explode.

#2246

In a f3 with Derps and literally anyone else that isnā€™t Astand or Nerbins, I would lynch Derps. I donā€™t want to lynch him today though.

Simon and Wazza are lock clear to me, I know Iā€™m town, and if Arete/Disquieted are scum, then they played exceptionally well d2 onwards. Somebody has to convince me their slot is scum if they think thatā€™s the case. I honestly donā€™t see it and will only start considering it if lynching Nerbins + Astand doesnā€™t end the game (and Iā€™m somehow still alive).

#2247

I had a wall here, but it can wait for later.

@Nerbins who did you block?

#2248

Maxwellā€™s votes have been so good this game, Iā€™m really bummed he got modkilled.

I can claim, by the way, I just donā€™t see a good reason to do that. Iā€™m not a PR and I donā€™t think I have important results. I might claim if something ends up disproving that thought.

Arete/Disquieted still give me a fair bit of paranoia but I wouldnā€™t lynch them today or tomorrow. Unless scum have a double nightkill I can lynch that slot in f3 (if Iā€™m alive). I honestly expect both Wazza and Simon to die if the game goes to f3, leaving me with something like Arete/Disquieted + Derps + myself. In which case Iā€™m going to flip because eioagjeagmeaogae.

Letā€™s not think about that though. I wholeheartedly believe a Nerbins lynch should end the game and if it doesnā€™t, well. We gotta lynch the neut claim. We canā€™t keep it alive in f3.

#2249

Actually if my action still got processed, since dat and others got lynched just before eod, this might explain the lack of nightkill.

#2250

Iā€™ve just had that thought. You might have saved someone with a fruit.
And that brings me back to Nerbins. I feel like if Arete/Disquieted were scum, the nightkill would go through. Itā€™s clear that slot has been paying extreme attention to the game. They would not attack someone who has been given a fruit / a possible means of protection.

Meanwhile I can see Nerbins misjudging who to attack, especially if heā€™s the final scum member as I suspect. This is not meant as an insult, there is just a massive gap between these two slots when it comes to contributions and attention.

#2251

This is also very true coming from Maxwell. Another reason why I wouldnā€™t lynch that slot over Nerbins and Astand. The only reason I can see Aretted doing this is if the mafiaā€™s plan was to send a deepwolf to endgame, but it feels a bitā€¦ late to do that. I still donā€™t know why so many mafia suddenly died, but I just donā€™t see the strategy there.

Vulgard has bad reads, what else is new.

-Why I want to lynch this in f3 if things come to it.

#2252

Nerbins was given a fruit a night before, so if my action was processed, he was just occupied.

I gave him a banana n3.

#2253

Well then, that pretty much condemns him in my eyes. Iā€™m rapidly approaching my post restriction, but I think Iā€™ve shared all of my thoughts for now.

Will try to put out more before EoD if I have something.

One thought I have is that there really is a 3p killer and itā€™s some type of arsonist (which would explain Shurian and Maximus dying all of a sudden). That wouldnā€™t be cool. But since I want to lynch Astand after Nerbins if the game still doesnā€™t endā€¦ I donā€™t think it matters.

Unless Arete/Disquieted are it. In that case we might be screwed unless I get :b:elp.

#2254

To clarify, I gave bananas to Nerbins and Maximus N3, can explain my logic if someone wants, but itā€™s probably not much relevant now.

#2255

For all its worth, there is like no way any arsonist would target shurian and maximis over other people.

#2256

I got no notification at all tonight, that includes fruit. I tried RBing Astand

#2257

Reason for this is that everything that happened EoD was shady as all hell. If itā€™s to be believed, there are either SIX MAFIA AND 3 FRUIT VENDORS or 5 MAFIA, 1 NK AND 3 FRUIT VENDORS AGAIN.
Thatā€™s HALF the players. No matter which way you look at it thatā€™s next to impossible. Plus, the exact flips were hidden yesterday. Something didnā€™t sit right, and even if I was wrong about this whole thing, we won the game because Mafia were practically destroyed, so no harm done in RBing Astand.

#2258

i think there are 2 more mafia left.
it seemed like a joke, but eevee said they were doing a 7/10
so in this case it would be a 7/11 for a total of 18

astand, if you would be a dear and start protecting the fruit you got last night that would be good. im much more effective at getting it out there and ive started before i got to you

#2259

What does that mean?

#2260

if you dont know, nunya.

#2261

disqu, its best not to tell the masses in case mafia forgot. astand knows what im talking about

#2262

Didnā€™t you say fruit occupies the night itā€™s given?

#2263

Well then. Strange option, cause we know without a doubt what astandā€™s role is and he certainly wasnā€™t carrying a kill. Iā€™d ask if astand gave out fruit successfully, butā€¦ bit sleep deprived and not sure what that accomplishes, cause either way it means the missing nk is centred around Nerbins, I guess.

Wasnā€™t thinking of mentioning it, Simon.