[FM] Mafia Academy 1 - Mafia Victory

Then lynch Simon, if he’s town go ahead and lynch me

Why do you care about the order if you’re town? :thinking:

I think Derps has a red role card. :<

I think this is my final post for today, too.

Because I don’t wanna be myslynched?? Why would I want to be myslynched?

Because it proves your results were not fabricated and prevents us from mislynching in LyLo. I don’t really see the issue from my perspective. If you do see an issue from yours, you are the last member of the Mafia and your lynch ends the game for your team.

If you are town here, getting lynched is actually beneficial. If we don’t lynch you, we can mislynch you a day later and that’s not better in any way.

The fact you don’t seem to consider this is mafia indicative from my POV.

16/18.

I meant MyLo, but w/e.

If Derps is town here, we have to lynch Simon unless we believe in lolgodfathers. If Derps is mafia, the game should end.

I think it’s really that simple. Occam’s Razor. If we believe in lolgodfathers, MyLo is going to be wild and I think I would rather no lynch there, but I digress.

17/18

Okay but I know my results are what I got so

It’s not MYLO? Unless I missed something and astand can easily prevent a kill no matter what.

I’m worried briefly about entering LYLO with a claimed neutral; not cause I think he’s harmful but cause I think he could do whatever. Anyways. Don’t have much else to add. Even if this is like semiLYLO cause we play f3 with astand otherwise, derps is still kind of off-putting here and is most likely scum.

but the fact that you know them means nothing.
it has to be known to the town at large in order for it to mean something significant here.
yes everyone sorta agrees with your results, but having them verified via a lynch? thats perfect.
so if im scum im guaranteed to lose by the end of tomorrow, whether your lynched today, or i am.

however if i am lynched today, town has less information at its disposal, and could begin to turn on each other.

so, tell you what derps. ill agree to be lynched today, if you promise to get yourself lynched tomorrow. deal?

Marginally concerned as to what your class is, Vulgard, cause I see no evidence of another class’s abilities that you could be, but no need to deal with it right now.

Two hours before deadline and I’m still ruminating on Derps’ possible class. I probably have better things to do. Like go to sleep.

I am going to fullclaim in LyLo / MyLo / whatever. My class is… kinda weird, but like I’ve been saying, it’s not extremely powerful.

18/18.

BOOM BYE SCUM @ Derps

^ that means he must be lynched

We are not lynching simon today.

Arete had a correct idea on mechanical play, as lynch should be among people without fruit, and a kill cant happen tonight even if derps is somehow town - only possible kill is vul killing me, and that would out him.

Besides I dont think there was any indication of town fruit vendor other than simon, and I suspect mafia fruit vendor is already dead.

did derps target vulgard?

Iv legit checked everyone but Simon and Astand, Astand is confirmed neutral. We lynch Simon today.

We can lynch Simon tomorrow if you’re somehow town. Nobody magically has all greenchecks for five whole nights, so I doubt it

I have green checks for all the nights because I’m cool

Uh huh, sure :thinking:
Too cool to have a single redcheck and potentially prove yourself

I mean hey I have a red check by POE

It’s not my fault all the players I though are harder to read we’re town

If I was mafia why wouldn’t I just claim a redcheck on Simon lmao

Honestly, for whether or not it’s likely derps is telling the truth, you have to ask yourself, what are the odds a Mafia derps would fake the checks.
We know by math that there’s roughly a 20 percent chance a town derps misses all the Mafia with 5 checks
This may seem to indicate that derps has an 80 percent chance of being scum, however this is misleading
Instead, we have to look at this back-to-front. What kinds of worlds have derps telling us this? A world where derps is town, and a world where derps is Mafia. For this I’m going to assume the prior probability is 50 percent in each of the town and scum worlds, because it’s basically between us at this point, and I really don’t want to deal with Monty Hall probabilities here.
Now, in each of these worlds, what are the odds derps tells us this.
In the town world, it’s 20 percent, and in the Mafia world, I’ll leave that to yall to show I’m not being biased, but I’ll use x%
Now, we add these two together, and divide into that total to see which is more likely:
20 / (x+20)
Or
x / (x+20)

If the two worlds weren’t 50/50 we would put in another multiplier but we’re not dealing with that for now. Just plug in your value for x and you have a more accurate relative percentage for scum derps and town derps