[FM] Quantum Mafia - Game Thread - Mafia Victory

[ChopChop]

@Wazza

Meaning, it’s more +EV if you’re possibly Mafia to target me with the Mafia Kill.

I guess but I still feel like it ain’t the best option but I understand it.

[Zone_Q11]

@Jane

Because being copped as Mafia makes you more likely to be Mafia.

Please explain how.

@Jane

But you were targeted by someone with Maf kill, so that makes you less likely to be Mafia.

Please explain how.

@ChopChop

I mean like I have no actual intell on Derps other then i think he was actually attacked by someone.

Who needs intel when the person you want to accuse is lost in the trees anyway?
–plus, I was the (only) one who JOAT Vigged him.

[Zone_Q11]

@LiLi041

I thought earlier there was a call for everyone to share their cop results…?

Yes, but you were kinda duped because not everyone follows the call.

@Wazza

Meaning, it’s more +EV if you’re possibly Mafia to target me with the Mafia Kill.

…huh, that sounds tempting.

[Wazza]

You can use every role you know.

Might as well kill the player who probably isn’t your Mafia partner.

[Zone_Q11]

@Marluxion, @Magnus, @LiLi041, @Simon
Who do you prefer dead: Seth, or the guy has 3 posts D1 and 0 posts D2 named Derps?

[Jane]

@Zone_Q11

@Jane

Because being copped as Mafia makes you more likely to be Mafia.

Please explain how.

@eevee

Suppose that Player A has 60% villager, 20% Cop 20% Mafia as their role, and they investigate Player C. If C was likewise 60% villager, 20% Cop 20% Mafia , it would seem that he should receive 80% innocent, 20% guilty. This is not the case .

Instead, what would happen is we would look at all possible games in which A is Cop , and then randomise the result amongst those games. So if C has a 70% chance of being town in all games where A is Cop, and a 30% chance of being Mafia in all games where A is cop, A has an 70% chance of getting the result If you are a Cop, Player C is not a member of the Mafia , and a 30% chance of getting the result If you are a Cop, Player C is a member of the Mafia . This, obviously, eliminates all timelines in which A is Cop and their result is wrong.

@Zone_Q11

@Jane

But you were targeted by someone with Maf kill, so that makes you less likely to be Mafia.

Please explain how.

@eevee

The other main rule to keep in mind for factional kills is thus- If a Priority 1 Mafia member submits a kill on another Mafia member, that timeline ceases to exist, and the odds are changed accordingly.

Basically: Just read the OP lol.

[Zone_Q11]

@Jane

Because being copped as Mafia makes you more likely to be Mafia.

Wait, but gorta’s redcheck on Simon only collapses worlds where gorta is Cop and Simon is Town?
While that is non-zero, I don’t think that is enough to have us execute Simon over Seth or Derps.

@WindwardAway

but then I’m also more likely to be Mafia because Simon copped me as Mafia lol

@Jane

But you were targeted by someone with Maf kill, so that makes you less likely to be Mafia.

Simon copped Wind as Mafia. This collapses all worlds where Simon is Cop and Wind is Town. (Less than roughly 120 worlds, according to the average 2% of randing Cop.)
Simon attacked Wind. This collapses all worlds where both are W/W. (Less than roughly 350 worlds, according to Wind’s math in P#1388.)

The fact that Simon’s actions have collapsed some worlds where Wind is Town and some worlds where Wind is Mafia, does not mean that Simon is suddenly any more special than the rest of the players. (Except Wazza.)

[Zone_Q11]

@Zone_Q11

Simon attacked Wind. This collapses all worlds where both are W/W. (Less than roughly 350 worlds, according to Wind’s math in P#1388.)

Wait a minute. If Wind is 6.02% dead and was only attacked by Simon, when we currently have around 2500 worlds remaining, then can’t we just reverse engineer this?

.0602 x 2500 = ~150

According to Wind’s math, there is a 5.875% chance of Simon attacking Wind.

.05875 x 6000 = ~350

…in other words, ~200 worlds have collapsed because Simon attacked Wind?
–well, it’s either that, or some other external factors of similar nature, but either way we are now left with ~150 worlds where Wind was killed by Simon N1. (Unless someone JOAT Vigged Wind N1, in which case someone else can take over the math department.)

[LiLi041]

@Zone_Q11

Yes, but you were kinda duped because not everyone follows the call.

Oh, sad.

@Zone_Q11

Who do you prefer dead: Seth, or the guy has 3 posts D1 and 0 posts D2 named Derps?

Derps

[Zone_Q11]

@Zone_Q11

we are now left with ~150 worlds where Wind was killed by Simon N1.

150/2500 = 0.06
Baseline odds of being Mafia: 23.5%

@Jane, I want to ask you again to be sure: What makes Simon any different than any other players?

[LiLi041]

I have an impression of most people talking, but I’m missing Leafia, Eli, Gorta, and Derps. Maybe PKR.

Are these people all active (?) too?

[Jane]

I already said.

If nobody wants to lynch them, that’s fine, I’ll just use all my negative actions on them.

[Zone_Q11]

Vote Count

Accused	Voters	Number
SirDerpsAlot	ChopChop, Zone_Q11, LiLi041, WindwardAway	4
ChopChop	Marluxion, Magnus, Simon	3
an_gorta_pratai	Wazza	1
Magnus	Shurian	1
Simon	Jane	1
[Not Voting]	an_gorta_pratai, SirDerpsAlot, PokemonKidRyan, Rome, YoubutWorse, Leafia, EliThePsycho

…I wonder how sad Seth would be if Derps somehow manages to come back online within the next 27 hours and somehow magically throws everyone on his wagon onto Seth’s wagon.

[SirDerpsAlot]

Don’t vote me I’m fun to play with nerds

[Zone_Q11]

@LiLi041

I have an impression of most people talking, but I’m missing Leafia, Eli, Gorta, and Derps. Maybe PKR.

Are these people all active (?) too?

Leafia - Not active this time. Unusual.
Eli - Usually more active.
gorta - Usually not active. This is normal.
Derps - I don’t know his meta too well.
PKR - Eh, he’s usually online when you call him.

@Jane

If nobody wants to lynch them, that’s fine, I’ll just use all my negative actions on them.

Hm… I am starting to understand your M.O., but I don’t understand where this negativity for Simon is coming from. It feels… unordinary.

[LiLi041]

Woah you are on now? O.O

Good timing…?

[WindwardAway]

@LiLi041

Good timing…?

someone must’ve told him he was getting wagoned in the wolfchat

[Jane]

[Marluxion]

windy is towny yeeeee

[Zone_Q11]

Tell me why you are more fun to play with than Seth. You are currently the lowest poster, and you would have 0% death as well (which is apparently a criteria some people have set to the people who are more likely scum) had it not been for me attacking you as JOAT.