No I’m saying you can’t predict what’s going to collapse due to someone flipping a certain role so you can’t know how exactly people’s chances are going to change, so everything you’ve learned today about what certain people are essentially is useless going into the night
not true, you know for a fact that certain worlds collapse that depended on their night results (if they truthfully claimed them)
And a bunch of people have, so far. It probably won’t continue this way for most of the game, but the N1 actions give us a starting point.
like if we execute someone who flips mafia, we don’t know for sure that they made a successful night kill, but we do know that all worlds where they were cop, voyeur, JK, MDet, JoAT, etc. are eliminated and their night results are therefore void. If they copped someone as mafia, it doesn’t mean that the person isn’t mafia, but it does mean that their cop results don’t exist.
it also means that if someone else copped them as town, that person is no longer a cop.
Okay
How many scenarios was that person X role in?
How many senarios was I a role that would be affected by their flip?
that’s partly determined by whether anyone knows what their role odds were, and whether anyone wants to claim that they took an action on them that would have been affected by the flip.
if Player W copped Player X as town, and Player Y copped Player X as mafia, because Player X flipped mafia, Player W knows for a fact that they can no longer be a cop and their odds go to 0%. Player Y, however, still has a chance of being a cop.
Both Player W and Player Y are aware of these changes in their odds, assuming they’re paying attention.
So no, it’s not like the entire playerlist immediately knows how the odds change, but each player gets a bit of information every time someone else dies, and then they choose whether they want to reveal that information or not. Obviously if your chances of being mafia go up after Player X’s death, you probably don’t want to claim that. I’m just saying that the odds of all roles are redistributed after one player’s exact role has been determined. I guess a much more clear example would be if we executed someone who flipped town PR, since that literally eliminates everyone else’s chances of having that role, and it also narrows down the 2x5 grid to worlds where that role has to have existed in the first place.
The issue is we know nothing about those worlds so we can’t guess what’s going to happen if that’s happens
well, a bunch of town PRs just cease to exist, and the Mafia RC role might also cease to exist, so I consider it useful information
if you work off the assumption that all of our starting odds were roughly similar and you know some of their night actions, you can calculate a range of worlds where certain roles would have been eliminated for them.
I guess the real problem is that I’m operating under the assumption that there’s at least some sort of collective solving effort.
In the example I gave in response to Marl, it didn’t assume that Players A, B, C and D knew whom each other had submitted a kill on, but it assumed they were paying attention to the changes in their own odds and that they would remember whom they themselves had killed, so they could at least partially determine others’ odds based on what their own information gave them.
Vote Count
| Accused | Voters | Number |
|---|---|---|
| SirDerpsAlot | ChopChop, LiLi041, WindwardAway, Magnus, Zone_Q11, Shurian, Jane, SirDerpsAlot | 8 |
| ChopChop | Marluxion, EliThePsycho, Simon, YoubutWorse, PokemonKidRyan | 5 |
| an_gorta_pratai | Wazza | 1 |
| [Not Voting] | an_gorta_pratai, Rome, KyoDaz |
Common sense does.
Flip a coin 100 times, and you’d get “roughly” 50 Heads and 50 Tails on average.