[FM] Quantum Mafia - Game Thread - Mafia Victory

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#2666

at the moment idc, eventually I’d care but considering how much info I’m missing anyway, I’d just work around it

#2667

How many people have said they didn’t submit a mafia kill

#2668

2 people so far (you and Leafia, Leafia said she submitted but Kyo clarified that the bot didn’t process her actions due to formatting issues)

#2669
  1. Leafia → KyoDaz 1
  2. EliThePsycho 1
  3. an_gorta_pratai 2
  4. Simon 0
  5. Marluxion 1
  6. Shurian 1
  7. Wazza 2
  8. Magnus 3
  9. SirDerpsAlot 0
  10. ChopChop 0
  11. Jane 1
  12. YouButWorse 0
  13. PokemonKidRyan 1
  14. Zone_Q11 1
  15. Rome 0
  16. LiLi041 0
  17. WindwardAway 1

Amount of mafia kills every person was target bt

#2670

People seem to be W/W on average 300-360 worlds

#2671

Wait this might be wrong

#2672

The death % are based off the worlds were in right now correct

#2673

yes as I understood it

#2674

Do we know how manny worlds are left or no

#2675

think this answers your question

#2676

Okay so the death % of someone is how many of the current senarios their dead in

Any scenario that someone is W/W with another in AND has higher kill priority is eliminated

The bases for killing people with higher % means more people targeted them, which means their less likely to be mafia since those worlds where they were W/W have collapsed.

Issues here.

We don’t have any idea how many scenarios that is. Could he 4 scenarios eleminayed in total could be 600.

This goes both ways as the attack eliminates the same amount of works so withought knowing who attacked who we can’t accurately figure out how these really affects the game overall

#2677

Out of curiosity does anyone know what or how to find the statistical probability for the number of worlds someone is W/W with someone else at the start of the game

#2678

if each player has an average of a 23.52% probability of being a wolf (because 4/17 = 0.2352) then the chances of someone being W/W with someone else is their probabilities multiplied together as it’s a combination, so 0.2352 * 0.2352 = 0.0553 which is a 5.53% chance that, out of the entire playerlist at the start of the game, any two players will be W/W with each other.

#2679

I have no idea how to do this

#2680

So what you just told me is that being targeted by a mafia factional kill N1 eliminates about 80-100 worlds

#2681

Yep
I got roughly 83 worlds when I calculated for two players with one targeting the other
6000 worlds, 5.53% chance of W/W, and 25% chance the kill goes through
6000 * 0.0553 * 0.25 = 82.95

#2682

So we’re deciding to kill people with a 0% likely hood over a statisticaly insignificant number?

#2683

Why are we still posting

1 Like
#2684

a 0% likelihood of being dead by factional kill, you mean?
because there are 83 more worlds where they can still be woof woof I guess
but then you factor in the other night actions which collapse other worlds, and that could either go for or against you, I suppose, depending on the actions taken.

I gotta run errands though so I’m not gonna sit here crunching numbers to figure that out.

#2685

But that’s not true, being targeted by a mafia factional kill means your chance of being wolf Probabaly went down by about 1.5 give or take like 0.3 percent

Once you factor other actions affects on your mafia chances then well

The 1.5% you dropped could be negated by a bunch of town scenarios collapsing for you and increasing your mafia chance by 3% respectively