something something roleEEEE chance
| Role | Chance |
|---|---|
| nerd | 100% |
| not nerd | 0% |
yeah but lol
cause i can compare your percentages to mine and figure out which of us is more likely to be which role
On one hand, the most optimal choice should be to skip this Day Phase as there is nothing but RNG to indicate that one would flip as Mafia over Town, for every player. (E.g. Jane has 23.92% chance of flipping as Mafia, i.e. 76.08% chance of flipping as Town.)
On the other hand, this is the best Day Phase to get rid of anyone the majority doesn’t like on a personal level, or at the very least get rid of the inactive players who are currently being tree’d.
Day Phase lasts 48 hours… It will be literally filled with nothing but fluff, as our roles are not fixed (yet). One could argue that there is no point in waiting 40+ hours to hug someone (to death), but in such case, the only thing that would defend any inactive players would be if they voted to skip D1.
what do you people not get about this possibly causing a problem on personal levels with other players?
our criteria at the moment is that everyone has to at least post something so we know they’ve checked in
preferably some sort of a meme or joke or something lighthearted
if people want to skip, heck, I’ll vote to skip, but otherwise i’m randing my vote because I don’t want to piss people off.
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One could say that skipping D1 would do nothing as N1 will be yet another “hate fiesta” but the odds of someone dying N1 is far less than D1’s 100% death hug, assuming that the majority doesn’t choose to kill a specific target. (Like, if 5 players vote to kill someone N1, then that person is basically 100+% dead.)
There is no such thing as honor in this site, especially when “it’s just a game”, so anyone who made an open alliance to get rid of someone can’t be said to be guilty for being a jerk. In other words, promises to “vote to kill the person below you N1” are worthless.
…it’s a literal meme opening. There is no ups nor downs. It’s just “get rid of whomever you don’t like”.
well, we could vote someone out D2 based on our probabilistic night action results as well, I guess
because someone’s going to be partially dead lol
The criteria seems good at first, except when you think of the fact that all players have 48 hours to check in before lurking back to the darkness and/or getting tree’d… you’d realize that there is basically no point in waiting for a simple “check in” on D1.
Voting to skip, despite everything I’ve said so far, is just outright bad idea. D1 ends immediately once the majority (which is presently 9 people) have voted. Doing so might let the inactives go scot-free from not talking D1 at all.
To summarize: We currently have nothing to do but wait for others to “check in” by talking and memeing? …yikes, this is a painful time to be alive.
Speaking of probabilistic night actions, I still don’t understand how any action other than investigation and killing works in this game.
I mean… yeah, this is fully what I expected from this game on the first day or so lol. I planned to just chill and meme a bit until the timelines start collapsing.
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you mean the protectives? they work the same way, although I’m a little foggy on exactly how the jailkeep would work. doctor is pretty straightforward… either you’re healing your target or you’re not, depending on the probability that you’re a doctor
jailkeep is, either you jail your target or you don’t, depending on the chance you’re a jailkeeper, but as the timelines collapse it becomes more apparent not only whether you are a jailkeeper, but whether your target is a PR who would be affected by a jailkeep in the first place, or if they could have successfully made a night kill that would have been blocked by you in a world where you’re exactly a jailkeeper and they are exactly a wolf who makes a night kill.
…I think I’ll take Magnus’ word for it for the time being. I don’t know how else this would work.
Yeah, that’s what I was confused as well… but if what Magnus said is correct, then the probability of the Jailkeeper jailing a Mafia who attacked JK’s target should have collapsed in case the target received enough death probabilities during Night Phase.
ok yeah, I think that makes sense.
but the mafia can’t attack the jailed target if the mafia is the jailed target anyway. I was talking about a case where the mafia is the jailed target.
Ah… Well you see: I don’t know how that works either. This game’s opening is already mad as is.
What I do wonder about though, is how the endgame will look like, assuming all possible PRs have died.
If all Town PRs have died, all you’re left with is the possibility of being VT and Maf Goon / RBer.
Assuming we end up in Block C1, while Cop got death hugged D1 while JK got killed N1… everything will just end up as RNG, wouldn’t it? Whether one is Mafia or Town, whether one dies or lives… it’d all depend on how eevee rolled.
The odds are ~2% × ~2% = ~0.04%
Roughly 1 in 2500
…it’s not impossible, but improbable.
Still, it’s a fun, yet worrisome thought.
–actually, if Cop actually flips D1, then many worlds would collapse, thereby changing the odds of JK dying N1. (E.g. JOAT never rands along with Cop, so if Cop flips then nobody can be JOAT and vice-versa.)
Hm… so the biggest hurdle (to bring forth a catastrophe) is the first death?
After comparing my odds with Jane’s, I have begun to wonder: Does anyone here have a “less than 1.00% odds” at all?
Motion Detector, JOAT, and Doctor have the lowest odds among all roles because of the 2x5 setup, so I just wonder if anyone has a near-zero percent odds of being a certain role.