what i lose in being difficult to read i make up for in The Numbers
the only one ive seen so far who understands this stuff about as well as i do is windward. and while windward knows this stuff enough to understand it i know enough to start to strategize around it. this sorta thing is literally my specialty in terms of fm
while im normally helpful only in the later stages when it starts to get into the nitty gritty, in this setup im helpful in the beginning too, as i can work around The Numbers quickly and easily
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That’s like saying Pi is pointless outside of NASA. Stats are invaluable to those who know how to use them.
that will largely never be the case unless we take specific measures to work to that point. if we dont this that usually happens at parity, which is when town loses.
Okay, fine. So you want to kill Simon for being hard to read?
Can someone remind me of his mafia probabilities and death percentage again?
Also imo, I think reads are totally useless right now. We don’t even know our own roles LOL so any kind of townread/scumread wouldn’t work. Just saying.
We can worry about the late game later. Right now, I think probability’s the safest bet.
Mafia starts before game starts
You should be thinking about entire game before game even starts
His death percentage is 0%.
I think his official mafia percentage is still close to 20%.
Overall he’s statistically more likely to be mafia than average, but so are five other people.
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even as a basis on their own, i disagree with this statement
if a person has a chance at being mafia significantly larger than should be average for the group at that point and we have no other leads then it is worth it to execute them, even if that number is less than 50%
what specific number it is mostly does not matter, what matters is what it is relative to the situation
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Except what’s relative to the situation dosent change their rng
I don’t feel like playing with rng to try to hope we get lucky and kill mafia
thats dumb thats a dumb plan and will not help us
we need to collapse realities so that things can become a bit more certain and so that we can actually start to make a plan to win
…
This game is all about RNG, puh-lease
As long as someone is not 100% something, you will be playing with RNG every single lynch