[FM] Quantum Mafia - Game Thread - Mafia Victory

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#2406

The point is to use only the information provided anything not given should be thought of the same or equal in regards to like actions etc etc

#2407

I’m trying to avoid bias by using players you know atm

#2408

i know what source material you’re coming from, and that’s not exactly bayes theorem i dont think.
assuming derps is meaning that person A can be correctly read (in general, by any person), 25% percent of the time, and person B can be correctly read 80% of the time, regardless of method for either one
this is not actually physically possible even in rather simplified scenario, but it does serve for the hypothetical situation

#2409

That’s so rarely the case in practicality.

#2410

So my question becomes if you know their equally likely to flip mafia, why wouldn’t you chose the one who’s harder to read?

#2411

Yes but we’re staring small

#2412

I could try but i predict derps’s argument will rather fall apart when talking with me, due to my particular opinions on the subject

#2413

I looked it up to make sure.
That’s where I got the ‘conditional probability’ quote.

#2414

This

#2415

conditional probability is a thing, but the estimation thing was a fermi estimation in that. the thing with the coins right

1 Like
#2416

I’ll still talk with you

And would like to

#2417

Partially because one of my biggest flaws in fm is convincing players of my reads

This is a great chance to work on it so pls talk to me

1 Like
#2418

I trust your objectivity enough to see his perspective, and explain methodically how it’s wrong - if it is wrong. If he has a genuinely good point, okay. That should be enough to convince most people enough to spare him.

1 Like
#2419

as i said, i shall converse, and not just disregard your hypotheticals

2 Likes
#2420

See you both.
I’ll check in on the thread in some time, if I can.

1 Like
#2421

Let’s just go back to the start basically

Player a 20% wolf, 25% to read

Player B 20% wolf 80% to read

Who do you exe and why

#2422

anyway
first scenario - execute person with 25% chance rather than one with 20% chance

#2423

That ones kinda a no brainer yeah

#2424

assuming there are no other complications, player A. as you say, in the later game the group as a whole would be worse off with them due to an increased chance at a ML

#2425

Okay so we both at least agree that someone being harder/easier to read had an effect