they as in the players attacking her
In that case Wazza would be dead in some worlds, but survive in some other worlds.
As long as she isn’t 100% dead, Wazza’s fine.
Endgame is generic FM.
It’s just that the present plan is to lynch people first so we can get more certain roles.
Quantum Mechanics for Dummies:
Here’s a basic example of how this works.
We will look at 4 players whose names are A, B, C and D.
The roles are 2 VT and 2 mafia goons (I know that’s parity but just assume there are other players in the background who are probably also town, and I’m ignoring them so the example won’t get too long).
Now let’s say the kills are as follows:
A and B both submit a kill on C
C submits a kill on D
D submits a kill on B
C should be 50% dead in this simple model, since A and B both have an equal chance of killing C. D should be 25% dead because C also has an equal chance of killing. B should be 25% because D has an equal chance of killing.
During the day, A, B, C and D bicker amongst themselves in deciding whom to vote out.
If A killed C, A and C can’t be mafia together.
If B killed C, B and C can’t be mafia together.
If C killed D, C and D can’t be mafia together.
If D killed B, B and D can’t be mafia together.
So know we know that all worlds where A is mafia with B or D still exist.
We know that worlds where B/C, B/D, and C/D are mafia pairs may have collapsed.
A specific example is that worlds where B and C are mafia together will collapse if B has a higher priority than C, as B submitted a kill on C. But if C has a higher priority than B, then D is killed instead, so this world does not collapse.
Thus B will not be exactly 25% dead, and C will not be exactly 50% dead.
Additionally, B’s odds of being mafia go down when the B/C worlds collapse, but they also go down when the B/D worlds collapse.
C’s odds of being mafia go down when the B/C worlds collapse, but they also go down when the A/C worlds and C/D worlds collapse.
More worlds collapse for C than they do for B, so the odds of C being mafia will be lower than they are for B.
Because nobody submitted a kill on A, no worlds where A is mafia with anyone else collapse, and thus A’s odds of being mafia go up to compensate for everyone else’s odds going down in various other pairings.
I have no idea why I spent time typing this and it’s a super oversimplified example but here ya go.
2 Likes
Well fuck, I stated my intent to vote ages ago.
God I’m so out of it this game, sorry my dude. >.>
woof I made a change in what i wrote and forgot to change it here.
Some worlds where A and C are mafia together would also collapse if A has higher kill priority, because A submitted a kill on C.
we might get night kill flips earlier if we happen to execute someone who flips mafia
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Here’s the interesting part - once people’s roles start shooting up to 100%, their night kills will die if they hit 100% mafia odds, but that can still happen without the player themselves being executed. So pay close attention to who claimed which night kills (and maybe stop publicly outing them) because you can just reverse engineer that to make a nice PoE of people who are living scum.
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I did say I was going to before and don’t worry, I shall do so.
Just need to check if there’s some sort of different voting format like there is for action format
Yeah you vote in the voting thread here:
and the format is ::vote @username
2 Likes
whoops i didnt mean to quote Eli’s vote lol
but yeah that’s what it should look like
Have either of you read my posts about why we should execute people harder to read btw