Yeah this is true, although probabilities could drastically change in certain timelines. I mentioned before that all of my probabilities look close to average, meaning I’m most likely VT, but it definitely doesn’t make me VT in every timeline and I’m guessing the probabilities of certain PRs are slightly higher or slightly lower than average as I only know that the total likelihood of being any sort of town PR adds up to roughly 17%. I could, of course, lie about this, but I don’t think it’s necessary for me personally to lie until shit starts to happen and the probabilities change.
I only slept for ~5 hours. Why are we already at 7/9 votes to skip D1? Especially you @WindwardAway, didn’t you say you wanted to chop down the trees first? Don’t we have one player who has yet to say anything at all?
Oh I’m waiting, I can unskip but I thought it was the equivalent of voting for a no-vote? Since there’s no hammer? Or is it literally going to end D1?
Okay, we have two options.
- Wait roughly 30 hours until EOD (2021-02-08T15:00:00Z) for Magnus to post.
- Skip now and collectively kill Magnus N1 because we are mean.
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I mean, if we follow Simon’s path, then yes. If 14/17 players vote to kill Magnus, then he’d 100% flip as town. ~78% VT and ~22% Town PR.
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Night Phase lasts 20 hours. If Magnus hasn’t posted by 2021-02-08T05:00:00Z, then he might as well not say anything.
Unfortunately it won’t work that way, because Simon proved it to me in my faulty simulation that if we kill everyone continuously, then we’d just let our Mafia versions win, but we wouldn’t be able to end the game because we still need someone to actually flip.
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For reference, the average percentage of being Mafia (i.e. Goon + RBer) is 23.5%, because “math”.
Welp, did I do something derpy? 