[FM] Quantum Mafia - Game Thread - Mafia Victory

[Zone_Q11]

@WindwardAway

It’s basically a self-pres. As i said, it’s more like an OMGUS kill than anything, but if X targeted Y N1 and Y targets X back N2, it makes X slightly more dead and slightly less likely to be mafia.If X is slightly less likely to be mafia, it makes Y slightly less dead because X being an increased percent towny makes them less likely to have performed the N1 kill.
It might not be the best way of manipulating the odds, but it is a way to, and it’s particularly relevant if you know the player who submitted a kill on you is currently 0% dead and thus more likely to be mafia.

Your entire argument depends on the statement “if X is slightly more dead, he is slightly less likely to be Mafia” which is not true.

Example:
There are 10 Worlds.
X is Mafia in World 1, 2, and 3.
Y is Mafia in World 3, 4, and 5.

N1 X attacks Y. Y abstains.
World 3 collapses because Mafia can’t attack each other.
Y dies in World 1 and 2.
Y is 2/9 i.e. 22.22% dead. (World 1 and 2)
X is 2/9 i.e. 22.22% Mafia. (World 1 and 2)

N2 Y attacks X. X abstains.
X dies in World 4 and 5.
X is 2/9 i.e. 22.22% dead. (World 4 and 5)
X is 2/9 i.e. 22.22% Mafia. (World 1 and 2)

As you can see here, the death percentage doesn’t immediately affect the probability of someone being Mafia.

@WindwardAway

No majority yeets, so pretty sure we just hang out till EoD in case anyone changes their mind.

Welp. That’d be a shame. Then again, a 16/17 would already be nigh impossible considering the fact that 1/4 of all players already aren’t cooperating.

@WindwardAway

I didn’t greencheck anyone, I have no results

Wait, then who targetted Wazza other than PKR and me?

[WindwardAway]

@Zone_Q11

As you can see here, the death percentage doesn’t immediately affect the probability of someone being Mafia.

it doesn’t immediately, but you can manipulate the results to account for more worlds in which they aren’t mafia, imo

@Zone_Q11

Wait, then who targetted Wazza other than PKR and me?

Magnus voyeur’d Wazza iirc

[Zone_Q11]

@WindwardAway

it doesn’t immediately, but you can manipulate the results to account for more worlds in which they aren’t mafia, imo

Okay, you lost me again.

@WindwardAway

Magnus voyeur’d Wazza iirc

…huh. Welp. Okay.

[WindwardAway]

@WindwardAway

@Zone_Q11

As you can see here, the death percentage doesn’t immediately affect the probability of someone being Mafia.

it doesn’t immediately, but you can manipulate the results to account for more worlds in which they aren’t mafia, imo

I’ll be more specific - I’m 6.02% dead and I think the only one who submitted an NK on me was Simon, who is currently 0% dead because nobody submitted a kill on him last night. If nobody else submitted a factional kill on me or vigged me, that means Simon is slightly more likely than average to be a member of the mafia who made a successful kill, because 1/17 gives us 5.88%, which is less than 6.02%.

But if anyone else wants to claim killing me, my death percent is less indicative of Simon being mafia than I think it is.

[Marluxion]

everybody even night vigilante target simon

[WindwardAway]

that’s just going to 100% kill him, lol

[Jane]

Not really? There are worlds where even night vig didn’t roll, so Simon will still be alive in those worlds.

[WindwardAway]

that’s true.
but I personally would rather target him with a factional kill than a vig because if you guys vig him and he flips mafia, I also die lol

[WindwardAway]

cause he obviously has a high enough priority within the mafia team to successfully kill me more often than not

[WindwardAway]

basically what would happen if everyone hypothetically targeted Simon with a factional kill is that all worlds where anyone targeting him was mafia, eliminate him being a teammate for them. So that’s what actually boosts the chances of being town. (this is a little oversimplified and I don’t want everyone trying to take Simon out tonight, but I do want to manipulate it so that Simon is less likely to have killed me lol)

[WindwardAway]

on the contrary, if everyone targets Simon with the even-night vig, it doesn’t affect Simon’s alignment odds so much as affecting his odds for being an even-night vig specifically.

[WindwardAway]

anyway, if you manage to kill both Simon and me, I guess someone else is gonna have to do all the quantum physics explanations so uh, don’t kill Simon yet lol

[Jane]

@WindwardAway

someone else is gonna have to do all the quantum physics

I could do them. If you just consider them alternate universes it’s simple.

[WindwardAway]

@Jane

I could do them. If you just consider them alternate universes it’s simple.

nice
and yes, exactly

[Zone_Q11]

@WindwardAway

I’ll be more specific - I’m 6.02% dead and I think the only one who submitted an NK on me was Simon, who is currently 0% dead because nobody submitted a kill on him last night. If nobody else submitted a factional kill on me or vigged me, that means Simon is slightly more likely than average to be a member of the mafia who made a successful kill, because 1/17 gives us 5.88%, which is less than 6.02%.

But if anyone else wants to claim killing me, my death percent is less indicative of Simon being mafia than I think it is.

Bruh. That’s not how it works. For example, I was 1.09% JOAT, and I am fairly certain that I am the only one who shot Derps using JOAT Vig.
Yet, even after recalculation, Derps is 1.12% dead. This is because even though he died in N worlds, you have to take account of the fact that 3500 worlds have also collapsed, thereby messing up with the percentages.

@Marluxion

everybody even night vigilante target simon

I fail to see what the use is of doing this.

@WindwardAway

that’s true.
but I personally would rather target him with a factional kill than a vig because if you guys vig him and he flips mafia, I also die lol

…wait, Simon attacked you?

@WindwardAway

cause he obviously has a high enough priority within the mafia team to successfully kill me more often than not

How do you know for certain that Jane has a high Priority in all worlds where he is Mafia?

@WindwardAway

on the contrary, if everyone targets Simon with the even-night vig, it doesn’t affect Simon’s alignment odds so much as affecting his odds for being an even-night vig specifically.

What are you on about?

[WindwardAway]

@Zone_Q11

Bruh. That’s not how it works. For example, I was 1.09% JOAT, and I am fairly certain that I am the only one who shot Derps using JOAT Vig.
Yet, even after recalculation, Derps is 1.12% dead. This is because even though he died in N worlds, you have to take account of the fact that 3500 worlds have also collapsed, thereby messing up with the percentages.

yeah, but the fact that the worlds collapse and Simon still has an individually high chance of killing me would indicate that it’s a higher than average chance that he kills me, wouldn’t it?

@Zone_Q11

…wait, Simon attacked you?

yes that’s what I’ve been saying the entire time

@Zone_Q11

How do you know for certain that Jane has a high Priority in all worlds where he is Mafia?

I was talking about Simon, not Jane.

[WindwardAway]

@Zone_Q11

What are you on about?

I was saying it’s beneficial to me if people don’t kill Simon, but if they do, it’s more beneficial to me that they target him with a factional kill rather than a vig shot because it removes worlds where they’re co-scum.

[WindwardAway]

This is literally just me trying to self-pres so I don’t die retroactively on N1 lol. It doesn’t really need to concern you guys, but if you manage to increase Simon’s odds of being mafia and flip him as such, it gives me a high chance of being actually dead if he had a high enough priority to perform the factional kill.

[LiLi041]

Good morning folks~

@Rome

There is another place to talk? Is anyone here?

Yeah, voting thread

@ChopChop

Maybe Magnus got his mafia Rolecard early

I got the exact role too- VT

Also ChopChop, idk where the quote went but I’ll add myself to the ‘people who RBed you’ pile.
I JKed you last night.

[Zone_Q11]

@WindwardAway

yeah, but the fact that the worlds collapse and Simon still has an individually high chance of killing me would indicate that it’s a higher than average chance that he kills me, wouldn’t it?

1. Yes, but that is only if he decides to kill you specifically.
2. What does this have to do with lowering the odds of Simon being Mafia?

@WindwardAway

yes that’s what I’ve been saying the entire time

Ah, I see. So you just want to take revenge upon him?

@WindwardAway

I was talking about Simon, not Jane.

Same thing; how do you know that anyone has a high priority?
Let’s say that Simon attacks you again. Do you really think that your death chance would increase?

@WindwardAway

I was saying it’s beneficial to me if people don’t kill Simon, but if they do, it’s more beneficial to me that they target him with a factional kill rather than a vig shot because it removes worlds where they’re co-scum.

@WindwardAway

This is literally just me trying to self-pres so I don’t die retroactively on N1 lol.

Ah, now I finally understand what you mean.