My guess is that, using the odds and numbers compounded upon the death percentages with the role percentages, Simon considered the new numbers and decided they were low enough for me to beat Wazza?
0.18% → 0.20% (From the Change) - Maf RC
0.23% → 0.47% (From the Change) - Goon
19.97% → 19.79% Any PR (Not Mafia RC)
79.61% → 79.53% VT (Yes I am aware that this only equals 99.99%, don’t blame me, blame the game for using simplification
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we know that being targeted by a maf kill lowers your maf chances
so therefore there is a roughly negative correlation between death % and mafia %
based on that i made the prediction that the player with a death % 6% higher than another would have a lower chance at being mafia
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…Simon is logical, but I feel like he is losing this fight no matter what.
Even if he argues that one gets less likely to be Mafia the higher the death rate is, it doesn’t change the fricking Mafia Percentages.
im sorry that i said that magnus’s is lower than wazza’s when i should have said that it should be lower, thats my mistake.
You’re not wrong, but you stated that Magnus has lower odds being Mafia than Wazza, and I still disagree because both sides have given their Percentage Claims.
I am having a beef with this statement.
Okay, I get Simon’s reasoning, and it makes genuine sense here. I agree, it could be wrong, but it does sound right. Zone and Simon’s comes from a disagreement about mafia priority. Whether the death% or the mafia% makes someone more or less likely to be mafia.
i am normally careful to use predictive/unsure language for basically this reason, and i slipped up.
Aye. It happens. My bad for being so worked up about it.
…by the way, have we decided whether to yeet Derps or Seth yet? From what I see, there seems to be a disagreement.
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