Aka. no.
Will you get annoyed if I spam you with questions about how game works even if it’s simple and I should understand
I’m slightly apprehensive that there’s ~10/17 chance of being VT and ~5/34 chance of being non-priority goon that’s very hard to collapse outside of the fringe worlds of being caught by an investigative
approximate number of PRs that target you * approximate amount that your chances collapse by * chance that you show as a non-vanilla = very roughly 3 * 1/livingplayers * 1/3 which gets to a very rough estimate of 1/100, or about 1%, per night
given that these percentages start at ~60% and 20%, I don’t feel like they’re going anywhere fast
probably wrong because I haven’t thought through how elim flipps affect stuff but
edit: also my math could straight-up just be wrong
Fun fact:
If JOAT is lynched day 1, on avarge it eliminates 98,8% of starting scenarios right away.
Not exactly.
A JOAT being eliminated is not the same as SPECIFIC joat being eliminated.
Each of players can be joat, but if a joat flips, then it’s locked to only that player being joat.
well
if there’s a JoAT in the game (20%), there’s only a 1/17 chance they get punted D1
edit: laughs in post pre-editing
edit2: this post doesn’t actually make sense lol
The JoAT base chances for each player are approximately the rand chances in normal 2x5 (1/5) times the actual chances for the slot (1/17)
It’s not really about the total number of cases, but about a large chunk of VT/Goon chances (~75% of overall rands) that don’t vary very much and thus make it hard to influence your alignment to an appreciable extent
although probabilities probably get a bit wonky once we start hitting <100 possible rands
although I think this is the sort of thing that just needs empirical testing so /shrug
Besides, there is one more narrow down people are forgetting.
1 of the 10 setups.
There cannot be all 10 setups at once, there will be just one left in the end.
Meaning 90% of games will be discarded at some point by setup being decided.
Minimum of like 40% is discarded by day 1 elimination.
Etc. etc.
It’s gonna go down VERY fast.
If you’re multiple PRs, do you only get to use one power? Do you get to target someone and your PR ability will be used?
I am very torn about this
This setup is boring and I don’t like it, but quantum mechanics are cool. But I’m taking a break from forum mafia and I really don’t feel like playing
Aaaargh
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What if Cop never claims their peeks and then flips?
Is chances collapsing dependent on whether they posted their information in the thread?