[FM] Ritual Mafia 3 - Heretics win!

[LadyThamasa]

@psychoneirik

Accused	Votes	Count
Geyde	mathblade	1/9
James	pkr, htm	2/9
Magnus	James	1/9
WazzaAzza	Solic	1/9
PKR	BlueStorm, datbird	2/9
htm	Geyde, Magnus, LadyThamasa, kai_5, Marcus, bazingaboy	6/9
datbird	Hippolytus	1/9

Still, Htm had a vote on James d1.

[Icibalus]

Okay, so here’s where I’m at currently:

Thamasa probably v
Hippo v
Math v

Blue w

This is a perfectly servicable set of reads, but obviously I need to get a wider view of the game than if I just went around talking about all the main topics and posted hillariously underwhelming reads on everybody else.

[Icibalus]

Initial Solic read:

When I read his ISO, my gut said “he’s a villager, move on”, which I was extremely tempted to just go and post “Solic gut villager, don’t ask me why”. However, something about him made me think it’d be for the best if I looked closer.

One of the things I noticed is Solic’s opening here:

@Solic

Answer me this. Why do you want to lynch Geyde?

Why are you whiteknighting Geyde so early on? That’s literally how you enter the thread.

@Solic

Geyde has a really bad opening too hmm.

Although the first post could easily be construed as shadethrowing (I’ve mistaken Solic’s questions and observations as that before), I’d argue that the second post shows a very clear village motivation.

The fact that he followed up on the initial post with the second is quite villagery: he’s not just putting the “shadethrow” out there but is rather actually using it to create a conclusion. From what I know about Solic’s personality I would also imagine that wolf!solic would simply post the original observation then move on to his agenda; trying to incorporate his thoughts into a scenario like that dosen’t come naturally to Level 2 wolves.

I’m feeling reasonably comfortable in saying that Solic is v here; i feel like there’s a lot of stuff in his ISO that makes you think he should be wolf but not enough that says he actually is

[Icibalus]

@DatBird

can you answer my full question?

DatBird:

interesting, what makes you think they are suspicious. COmpared to their d1 in Chaos?

IMO their day1 of chaos was almost as scummy, one how did you know he was town in that game compared to now. Secondly what posts and actions other than the hardclaim scream scum to you? I want to see what you see, and understand your reasoning

this post pings me and I’m not sure why, I’ll get back to it later.

[Icibalus]

@Ami what are your thoughts on DatBird? I’m not asking for you to dictate my opinion, it’s just your thoughts will be helpful for me to figure out both of your allignments.

[Icibalus]

I still have no luck on the front of DatBird, but I keep reading their posts and I think there should be some kind of problem with them beyond the tone setting minor alarm bells off every time I read his ISO.

I’ll probably come back later and see if he’s any easier to read after he’s interacted more in thread.

For now, DatBird is >rand wolf, although only having one > is important here.

[Icibalus]

@DatBird

So let me get this right this ritual phase we kill someone, and they activate one of their ritual abilities. And someone has to be sacrificed so theres no way out of it. Our current two big sacrifice choices are Geyde who wont be able to activate any abilities since Baz did their ability, or PKR is claiming Minisomething I dont know the spelling. Since he outed that, he cant be healed so hes pretty much free kill target for scum.

Weighing both options they both are beneficial in the aspect that if Bazs reads are right Geyde is scum and we have a easy lynch here with no reprocussion of a heretic ability going off. Or we have PKR who if not lying is pretty much dead tonight, and we get two permanant votes on a scummy player in their eyes. Im leaning Baz’s idea atm since his scumreads are pretty damn accurate

the only thing I can really point out as an actual wolfy part is this, and it’s mostly based on DatBird simultaneously thinking that Baz’s reads are accurate yet at the same time he talks about the reads as if they’re incorrect, which gives the impression of him really wanting the free kill Baz’s actions provide him.

It just feels a bit too much like the tinfoil reads where I provide an elaborate narrative of everything a wolf did and why when they’re actually a villager for me to be confident in it.

[Icibalus]

in other news Geyde was almost certainly right about James, and sheeping his reads is probably a Good Idea™

[Icibalus]

Since nobody has posted, I guess I need to post more reads. The multipost continues!

[Icibalus]

I don’t have the patience to make organised thoughts on htm, but here’s a villagery thing that speaks somewhat in his favour here:

@Htm

Not inactivity.

So can we actually stop making activity meta-reads?

They always feel inaccurate tbh.

i think this post comes from village!htm more often than it comes from wolf!htm, from experience wolf!htm and other level 1s like him tend to love agreeing with every villager with good reads in terms of methods because they’re terrified of standing out.

the lack of self-conciousness in this post is definitely a good look for htm, that’s for certain.

---

Assuming all my reads so far to be accurate(lol), here’s where our theoretical rolelist is at:

1. Marcus_Doodalee
2. Htm
3. DatBird
4. Kai_5
5. James
6. Magnus
7. BlueStorm
8. LadyThamasa
9. Geyde
10. Solic
11. Icibalus
12. PokemonKidRyan
13. Hippolytus
14. bazingaboy
15. Mathblade
16. fireslol

(obviously these reads are binary and aren’t taking into account my wildly differing levels of certainty in my reads)

There’s definitely room for 2 more wolves in there, but I don’t feel comfortable with a lot of the teams there, so there’s almost certainly a wolf somewhere that I’m not considering. NOTE: this is not an invitation for MathBlade to start talking about w!Hippo. If it comes to that, I’ll prove Hippo is a wolf when I figure it out, but we can leave him on the backburner for now due to thread presence even if he is a wolf.

[Magnus]

I’m happy with this for now.

[Icibalus]

no wait Baz is clear. In that case, only one person out of Kai/Magnus/Fireslol can theoretically be a villager, and I don’t feel comfortable saying that as a reasonable possibility

so there’s definitely an inaccurate read somewhere in my current scenario

[Magnus]

Would a Dat+Hippo scum team be possible?

[Icibalus]

@Hippolytus

Also Wazza had a lot of scummy reactions but apparently claims a confirmable class so the lynch seems settled on htm which isnt great as hes been pretty null imo.

We could push fireslol and dat for more content, neither of whom have given us much.

@Hippolytus

/vote datbird

Hippo’s voting DatBird way too casually for this to be a distance, although that dosen’t reject the Hippo is Traitor scenario in any way.

[Ami]

I’ll give them a read once i eat breakfast

[Ami]

also @LadyThamasa i appreciate your getting creative with your insults

[Icibalus]

“your wolfreading skills are so bad that your posts are worse to read than the Dragon’s Dream fight”

[PokemonKidRyan]

Vote Blue
Scum, come at me tonight.
Any LO-esque things need to watch me.

[Hippolytus]

Lol @htm who is this guy

[Hippolytus]

If Lady and Math are a scumteam then I’m insta-conceding from how stupidly good and realistic their beef was.

Theyre good but I really dont think they could pull that off so well. I dont see them both being scum.

A Math/James team could be a thing tho. He mentioned James like once when he got into thread but then instantly forgot about him. I’d have thought Math would have put the guy who claimed scum under more scrutiny.

Actually the fact that no one is mentioning James at all looks bad for him. Everyones going “no hes just low hanging fruit anyone who fos’s him is scummy” is kinda annoying. He just showed up, made a scummy comment and then left for 4 days lol.