1 Diviner is dead, Italy Used 3 target ability, Vulgard was occupied and there was no death.
A quick note about mafia theory and how I will play this game. Note that the arguments and facts presented here are indisputable, and that I will not engage in arguments about them, because those arguments are you wasting everyone elseās time about meta that is well and comprehensively established. Go make reads so we can read you.
Iāve reflected on my role and realized that there is a GOAT play for me in this game, and therefore I am compelled to pursue it. I am going to brute force my clearness immediately upon the opening of the thread.
I am hard-claiming, and I will never be rescinding. I am the Diviner. When it becomes prudent I will provide my peek.
Benefits:
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I will survive tonight: I do not believe the wolves are able to kill me tonight, because it is so objectively unlikely that I would ever do this as the Diviner. I believe that this decision reduces the importance of cover to be provided by all of you to the point of it being negligible. The wolves have already been outplayed, as it were.
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Iām lock clear: All of you already know Iām lock clear, because it is so objectively unlikely that I would do this as a wolf. You know this for at least two reasons. First, this is the easiest, lowest-stress, lowest-demand game to play mafia in that Iāve ever played in (except for turbos). I have no need to complicate my life, as a wolf, by open-claiming on thread open, when all I have to do is provide like a C-level wolfgame to probably win. This is the rare instance where you literally know that I have a billion other options as a wolf, AND that I would pursue probably ALL of them before pursuing this. Second, I engage in FPS exceedingly rarely, which necessarily means that I know that this will look WEIRD and SHOCKING to you. There is no merit to a wolf play that instantly generates WEIRD and SHOCKED responses that I would be obligated to finesse and manage for the remainder of the game. As a villager, which I am, the burden is totally on you to not fuck up and lynch me. Makes my life super awesome.
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There are only 13 players you need to try to read, rather than 14. I have already provided a āfreeā peek of me in a game with a mere 16 players. Our win equity is dramatically improved by my being entirely off the table for the entire game.
Conclusion:
The burden of sound reasoning is now entirely upon you. I am the Diviner, and thus a villager, and thus lock clear. The game is immediately simpler than it would otherwise have been, because of my decision. Now, let us enjoy that benefit and win the game.
Also, to preempt a lengthy and pointless discussion.
It is NOT dumb to ponder this post and convince yourself of its wisdom. That is your obligation as a villager, and I encourage you to think it over for as long as it takes to quell your (initially valid but ultimately unnecessary) concerns.
It IS dumb to, AFTER doing that pondering, conclude that Iām ātraitorā or āwolfā. That is legitimately stupid, and I wonāt entertain it. ONE of the reasons it is a stupid conclusion is that the upside of this play as a wolf is absolutely DWARFED by the upside of this play as a villager. There is no equivalency between the EV gain for wolf-me in this position and villager-me in this position. Theyāre universes apart. That means I wouldnāt DO the poorer option of the two (by extension, wolf-me also wouldnāt BELIEVE that I could convince the entire game of the truth of these assertions for the entire game, which as an end-game wolf I would have to believe if this strategem were to be worth pursuing). A SECOND reason that conclusion is stupid is that the EV bonus of doing this as a wolf is COMPLETELY DWARFED by my baseline wolf EV anyway. Anything that complicates my wolf life is RIDICULOUSLY stupid for me to do, given that my wolf life is ALREADY one of the smoothest, highest expectation wolfing lives in wolf history anyway. A THIRD reason that conclusion is stupid is that you would probably have to worry about being EXPLOITED by this gambit in order to get there. However, I have NEVER engaged in this, or any similar, gambit in my entire career, meaning that if there IS exploitation to be had with this play, it is in FUTURE GAMES, not this game. For these reasons, pressuring me is extremely wolfy and should not be engaged in by any villager, ever, in this game. There will be no less productive pursuit than that in this game.
Sucks for the wolves when meta is wielded this brutally, but my allegiance is plain and my strategy perfect. Get #rekt.
1 Like
god i hate braixās logic more then my parents hate me
but is it even possible to TMI the traveler?
You donāt even understand who the fuck youāre dealing with. I have advanced degrees in statistics and computer science and Iāve created a simple program with an advanced algorithm that Iāve been working on for years. I have read and tracked over 600 forum mafia games, recording every fencesit, every association, every scumtell. I have over 50 documented, specific forms and versions of scumtells and towntells, and at this point I can just skim a thread and put it into my machine. I have reduced the cacophonous lies of forum mafia into a pure, beautiful mathematical formula, and itās led me to literal hundreds of wins.
Why do I think youāre scum? I donāt deign to think about you myself. Instead, I thought about how to create a program to know mathematically whether you are scum. I donāt need to think about you, because my algorithm has determined that you are scum to an 87% certainty. You cannot beat those numbers at this stage in the game. Weāre talking about a mere 13% chance that you are a town member so monumentally bad at this game that you fooled a computer program that has successfully identified over 500 unique mafia players as scum with over 96% accuracy. Your only defense, in other words, is that you are so naturally scummy that youāre an outlier.
Whether youāre town or mafia, this is a message from mathematics ā you are bad at this game. You have played so scummy that a perfectly objective process has labeled you as scum. Whether that makes you bad at playing your specific rolecard or bad in general, there is no question that behaving like scum means you have not performed well. Consider this a welcome wakeup call, as hundreds have before you: If a player decides youāre scum, itās possible you just got unlucky, but if a computer program can be that certain of your alignment, there are some serious holes in your game, because it means youāre scum in an objective sense, rather than a subjective one. For that reason, Iām willing to roll that die and take that 13% risk, because even if thereās a small chance you might be town, thereās not even a remote chance that youāre good.
/vote Vulgard
Vote Count
| Accused | Voters | Number |
|---|---|---|
| Vulgard | Alice, Braixen, Marshal, katze, Vulgard | 5/8 |
| SirDerpsAlot | DryBones | 1/8 |
| katze | SirDerpsAlot | 1/8 |
| Apprentice | Arete | 1/8 |
| Arete | Wazza | 1/8 |
| Wazza | sulit | 1/8 |
ā¦ Assuming everyone in this game has a brain, logically speaking people would fake claim the class that they can actually fake claim with their abilities. Elementalist can fake claim Conjurer. Seer can fake claim Diviner.
god i fucking love you vulgard i could never lynch you even if i donāt believe you
/vote Derps
