[FM] Ritual Mafia IV -- Day 4 (7/16) -- Heretics and Traitor Win!

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#12123

if theres 1 scum in those 4 people

then they are correct to assume that the other 7 has 3 scum

so ironically the 4 player PoE is safer

#12124

what I was saying is that there could be more than one

if you think itā€™s exactly one then that makes ritualing inside of it actively a good play

#12125

BULL FUCKIN SHIt

#12126

seth

you think there is exactly 1 scum in {katze/Chloe/Marshal/Braixen} right

#12127

not bull fuckin shit

thatā€™s how 2nd grade math works

1 Like
#12128

There could be more then 1 but there IS NEVER less then 1.

1 Like
#12129

You know, hard choice butā€¦

I think all scum currently alive are in:
Wazza
Marshal
Icibalus
Alice
an_gorta_pratai
Katze
Arete
Braixen
Drybones
Sulit
Chloe

Hard choice but itā€™s possibleā€¦

3 Likes
#12130

see this sounded like you thought there was exactly 1

2 Likes
#12131

I think there is at least 1 but maybe 2.

#12132

I donā€™t think thereā€™s ever 3 unless god plays were made.

#12133

okay so for math purposes ill say thereā€™s 1.5 scum in that pool and 2.5 scum outside of the pool

1.5/4 = 37.5%
2.5/7 = 35%

so which do you think is more likely, 1 scum or two scum?

#12134

see sure itā€™s at least one

but does my kat logic about not starting heretic still hold?

lots of people not liking this but nobody can refute this

#12135

You get my point

#12136

No it doesnā€™t.
Apprentice found 1 scum within you before Kyoā€™s Convert Choice.

#12137

I mean

i doubt kat is ever converted but :man_shrugging:

#12138

:unamused:

thanks for the compliment

#12139

Anyway Iā€™m going to lower my PoE, like in full seriousness:

Wazza - Me
Marshal
Icibalus - More than likely Town based on his reactions.
Alice
an_gorta_pratai
Katze
Arete
Braixen - Definitely Town.
Drybones - Out of all Bloodmages, probably the towniest.
Sulit
Chloe

Marshal - Probably Town based on night action claim
Alice - Probably Town based on night action claim
an_gorta_pratai
Katze
Arete - Probably Scum but NOT the lynch for the day tbh.
Sulit
Chloe

an_gorta_pratai
Katze - Todayā€™s Ritual, unfortunately.
Sulit
Chloe

Wazzaā€™s PoE for today:
an_gorta_pratai
Sulit
Chloe

#12140

the chance is low enough for me that itā€™s the best chance i think

#12141

But you used that as an excuse.

#12142

Remember:
Section 1 - Very Confident in removing.
Section 2 - Confident in removing.
Section 3 - Removing for the sake of it and really because I slightly trust those players.
Section 4 - Self-Resolving players.
Section 5 - The PoE.

Below Section 2 is who I believe you can add back into PoE at any point.