[FM] Ritual Mafia IV -- Day 4 (7/16) -- Heretics and Traitor Win!

Forum Matches Completed
#14966

And besides, it was between Ici and Braixen.

We convert Ici? We get occ immune killer.
We convert Braixen? We get Bad Omen’er.

We can’t lose at this point.

#14967

Sorcerer isn’t occ immune when they use factional.

#14968

It was still a theoretical possibility no matter who you converted because of how many town offensives were alive

#14969

But they are when they use their special ability.

Which is what they’d use on a scum member and trick Gorta.

#14970

We’d BO Arete/Seth, and then vote that player.

#14971

Also astand is right
If gorta had gotten shaman killed N3 then town winning ritual rand d4 would have been possible

#14972

D4: 4v3, Alice sacrificed, Braixen converted. katze is lynched in rand.
N4: Arete OR DryBones is bad omened. gorta can still redirect the factional kill, as scum has no sorcerers and screw scum over in theory to kill them.

D4: 4v3, Alice sacrificed, Icibalus converted, katze is lynched in rand, 3v2.
N4: You use sorc ability to kill gorta, but you occupy one of your factional kills in the process. So the result is 1 single facitonal kill.
D5: 2v2, town can wind ritual rand.

#14973

Also if you do that, you’d only have 1 factional.

#14974

Katze get’s occupied at night:
Ici and EVO die
We ritual Alice, convert Braixen.
Town have to get lucky and lynch Katze and they might not even choose Katze as I looked like Traitor.
Shamans would all be dead and so would Elementalist.
Braixen would Bad Omen Arete/DryBones and the Town would suspect each other unconventionally and unknowledgeably.
OR:
Braixen would also nightkill.
Ici can occ either me or Braixen, would be smarter to block me. 2v2.
Town now has to ritual rand on Arete or Seth, but this can be easily stopped by us voting the BO’d one or us just voting ourselves and hoping for luck.

In actuality, the probability of Town winning the way you said without fucking it up once is around 7% and because of the i42 probability forum town factor we remove 50% of that thus concluding in a 3.5% chance of your plan fully succeeding with no errors.

#14975

By the way, can someone please explain to me wtf happened with Kyo?

#14976

Dark Portal could’ve been used as well tbh

#14977

of course town has to go for katze d4 lynch phase or they’re fucked
but if they do they have a chance no matter what you do

#14978

Oh it’s still ongoing.

#14979

Absolutely no one is arguing that these chances were low.

2 Likes
#14980

manual like

#14981

But:

  • Town do not know who the Elementalist is.
  • Town do not know that Elementalist is the Traitor.

They would probably go for me instead knowing the odds.

#14982

sulit read katze as traitor
it wasn’t impossible

yes they lose instantly if they don’t try to lynch katze d4
but if they do, they do have a chance if they win two coin flips in a row and play extremely competently at night

#14983

uh, what would sulit do?

#14984

They are.
Uh,

ya know.

dead?

#14985

speech wise nothing
but they were being channeled by braixen
they should have occupied katze

i was just saying since she read katze as traitor in her role card, others def could
the entire scum team outed itself at eod3, dont forget