[FM] Short Fuse IV - Game Over - Town wins

Why do you think Blue is town?

It stands for Oh my god, U suck.

it basically means when someone votes or scumreads someone because that player voted them

This shading was just wolfy as fuck, tbh.

Was just speaking my mind, thats what it seemed like to me

image https://media1.giphy.com/media/wileuM8pUUNDG/giphy.gif?cid=19f5b51a96e9ad7faf0da8aa977ffab9aed1d32b101453cc&rid=giphy.gif

Alright, here are those Isoā€™s you asked for.

Datbird Iso

So Datbird is always a hard person for me to read, I spent my first several games consistently reading him wrong (obviously in SFoL 51 it was kind of disingenuous but Iā€™m pretty sure Iā€™d have been scumreading him even as town, and until we got the HoB class list from Wazzaā€™s ability and Datā€™s claim I thought there was a pretty good chance Dat would turn out to be the NK). When I was reading NFoL 4 I got a correct read on him by taking the read I had on him that I got from trying to read him normally and then flipping it.

This and the several subsequent posts are all meme posts, Datbird memeposts more as town than as scum but I do think thereā€™s a bit lower density of meme posts than usual.

This set of replies is an interesting one given Aliceā€™s theory, insert the comment everyone ever makes about how they know the theory is incorrect but if you start from the theory being true then heā€™s lying in this post, which obviously he could do if he were mafia, though his response here doesnā€™t sound forced to me. Someone outside me/Dat/Derps/Alice might want to take a look at it to try to figure out the tone here.

This defensiveness is kind of weird, not going to lie, but Iā€™ve seen it before and donā€™t know how alignment indicative it is.

So basically he scumreads Marshal and townreads Solic and Sulit

I feel like this was a little fast to read Solic town, parts of that scuffle were my biggest hesitation about reading Solic as town

Quoting posts-within-posts is kind of broken so I just grabbed the end of this one, this is basically an analysis of Marshal, it seems like a basically reasonable analysis but I donā€™t know.

I donā€™t like this post, it feels like heā€™s trying to encourage people detonating early when itā€™s not really time for that.

General pushing, could be fakesolving.

This is the end of Datā€™s semi-Iso of me, it honestly seems like a decent analysis? I feel like I canā€™t really object to people scumreading me early on, Iā€™d hardly posted (even if the problem was that I was sleeping, lol).

thatā€™s my question I suddenly feel a bit uneasy about how Datā€™s copying almost my exact question, particularly with Aliceā€™s theory on us Iā€™m starting to wonder if Dat is trying to pocket me.

I realize itā€™s me youā€™re talking about but this is a total misinterpretation of what I was saying, obviously you have no reason to trust me on that but in my opinion itā€™s pretty clear that the thing Iā€™m saying is not ā€˜I will blow up Derps if one person says soā€™ itā€™s ā€˜Iā€™m willing to blow up Derps but I need more reason than just my own gut feelings.ā€™

Sulit Iso

Alright, this is the first piece of analysis we see from Sulit. Itā€™s kind of weak analysis as analysis goes.

Possible derpclear? Iā€™m inclined to say not, mostly because Mafia can also derp, but it bears mentioning.

This makes me think Sulit might be town, Iā€™d expect scum!Sulit to put more effort into defending themself here rather than specifically saying they didnā€™t care that someone voted them.

I like this Blue analysis, this feels decently thought out and high-effort (since it involved a lot of comparison with NFoL 3), obviously effort is not totally alignment indicative but I do think itā€™s a good sign.

This is kind of a contradiction, which honestly makes me more inclined to think Sulit is town because if they were mafia theyā€™d just know whether or not they would choose a town detonator.

I donā€™t think Sulit would call out a 180 like this if they were scum, and itā€™s pretty well-explained in my opinion.

This question is really weird, which is a bit concerning, but I think mostly itā€™s okay.

I appreciate Sulit prompting Wazza for content here, the choice of an Iso target makes sense since Wazza holds Marshalā€™s detonator.

This is a really weird post, a townie wouldnā€™t want to cause chaos unless itā€™s chaos that helps finds wolves.

Seems a little premature, this is a slightly wolfy post.

Iā€™m honestly not really sure what to think of this post, I know this is wishy-washy but I could see it coming from either a mafia or a villager.

This set of reasons is generally pretty good, I like how Sulit is giving several reasons even if some of them (b and d) are kind of repeats of other posts, but this does seem fairly solvey.

This is Sulitā€™s only vote all game, at that point in the thread it seems a bit weird but I mostly feel like Sulitā€™s Iso is townie.

Given the current thread motion this is a pretty good question., makes sense as a place to put pressure from their point of view.

So overall Iā€™d say from this that Datbird is a moderate scumlean and Sulit is a slight townlean, Iā€™m vaguely bothered by how much of the Datbird case rests on something that I know isnā€™t true but I do agree that Datbird is being pretty scummy. (I realize he might detonate me in response to this but if he does that heā€™s basically lockscum.)

/vote Datbird @astand

The one thing I canā€™t shake is the feeling that Iā€™m being manipulated by powerwolf!Alice, maybe itā€™s irrational to worry about this but I feel like if she is a wolf Iā€™m playing right into her hands and letting her convince me to distrust my neighbors. Iā€™m sort of tempted to detonate Derps and if he flips town to take another look at Alice.

pls no

Well, Iā€™m going to dinner in a few minutes, so youā€™re definitely safe while Iā€™m there. While I ponder the question, do you want to give me your top two townreads and your top two scumreads at the moment?

I donā€™t know iv been distracted most of the day

well figure it out

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I mean my top town read is def Jake, blue is a light read, Marshal is a light scum read not sure about a second scum

Assuming for the moment that Marshal is scum, who do you think Marshal is likely to be scum with?

I just told you I donā€™t have another scum read

So you donā€™t have any other reads other than those 3

Not currently. I doubt ill ever have a good read on Solic and alice as well

I justā€“

I want to trust Alice but at the same time Iā€™m paranoid that Iā€™m somehow playing right into the hands of a four-dimensional powerwolfing strategy and I really donā€™t want to let myself be manipulated that way but I donā€™t even know thatā€™s whatā€™s happening, and if that is whatā€™s happening then we kind of need to stop it now before itā€™s too late but if itā€™s not whatā€™s happening and we think it is then we lose out on her analyses, which, well, thereā€™s a reason she always dies N1 in set-ups with nightkills.

Whatā€™s your read on Sulit at the moment, since you currently hold their detonator?

Back from dinner, folks.

Personally, I would want a town Detonator, so that I would be able to threaten them with detonation if they didnā€™t do much

However, if the mafia choose the opposite of what they wanted, would it be suspicious or no?

Solic sees you as Scum because they donā€™t like you, from my PoV.
Solic has put you in a Dilemma:
If you read them as Town, They say itā€™s pocketing.
If you read them as Scum, They push on you.
If you read them as Null, They push on you for being unable to read them with their amount of content.

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