[FM] Short Fuse IV - Game Over - Town wins

It’s a person-by-person read on him that Ici told me a while ago.

Hippo’s usually more sarcastic as town then scum and I really noticed this when comparing his ISOs in RM3 and Zepphriphon. Him opening up by mocking you like that felt like it’s something he’d do as town over scum. Would not kill him today.

Here are the posts.

/unvote

ISO him here where he was scum.

https://forum.imperium42.com/t/fm-ritual-mafia-3-heretics-win/77006/3780

Not a single joking/trolly comment in much of his opening.

And here when he was town.

https://forum.imperium42.com/t/sfm-airship-zeppriphon-game-over/77226

Here are some of town!Hippo’s comments.

https://forum.imperium42.com/t/sfm-airship-zeppriphon-game-over/77226/282?u=alice

https://forum.imperium42.com/t/sfm-airship-zeppriphon-game-over/77226/296?u=alice

https://forum.imperium42.com/t/sfm-airship-zeppriphon-game-over/77226/304?u=alice

My contrarian side is hating to be won over by Alice now. Aaghhh

@BlueStorm

Come do something. I’m going to chill and come back tomorrow. Don’t detonate before I’m back tyvm.

Oh also,

/vote Blue

Accused Voters Number
BlueStorm Solic 1/7
sulit Hippolytus 1/7
Alice Arete, sulit 2/7

34 hours remain in the day

So RN I’m kind of trying to sort Dat/Blue/Jake/Derp/Arete/Sulit.

Don’t think Dat would be so okay with Jake being boomed like that, so ruling them not W/W.

Kind of thinking that the scumteam right now may be Arete/Dat/Derp OR Blue OR Sulti.

Probs going to ISO Sulit and then see their scumgame in SFoL50 for comparison.

I really like this question, actually. It seemed to have sparked some good discussion and, I don’t know how to phrase this well, it’s not a “generic” question.

This seems like a bit strange of a post, I didn’t really read the post it’s responding to the way Solic did.

Here we see the start of Solic’s push on Marshal. I sort of don’t like the assumption that Marshal is pocketing, but the progression here at least kind of makes sense, even if it’s really fast.

This is another good question, it makes me think that this is a legitimate push rather than an attempt at fakesolving.

I really like this response, actually. Feels really townie and I don’t think a mafia would come up with something like that on the fly.

Decent justification, though I’ll note that other people have had progressions like that that you hadn’t noticed.

I feel really weird about looking at these parts of Solic’s Iso because they’re directed at me, but it’s not like I can really complain about this one since it’s basically just prompting me for content.

(This was directed at Marshal, as are the next two)

I’m going to be honest, before I Iso’d him I was vaguely suspicious of how he’d just totally dropped the push on Marshal after detonators got handed out, but now I see that he didn’t.

I like how he’s pushing strongly for us to not randomly detonate for no reason, though the ‘we should autodetonate’ thing does feel kind of like scum trying to set off a chain of misdetonations.

(This is interacting with Sulit) It’s kind of a weak reason to townlean them, to be honest.

More interaction with Sulit, I like how he’s trying to get reactions from a wide variety of people (there were a few more posts like this one that didn’t make it into this Iso for space reasons).

Weird reasoning, but it’s interesting/unique enough reasoning that I feel like it’s probably town, if that makes sense – basically the idea being that fakesolving mafia wouldn’t think of something like that.

If I turn out to be wrong on Solic, I’d look into Kyo, since Kyo holds Solic’s detonator. It seems like he’s pretty confident here that he’s not going to get blown up. (though then again the main way we’d find out I was wrong on Solic is if Kyo detonated him, so maybe this point doesn’t hold?)

More questioning. Don’t really have much to say about this.

Decent progression on Kyo here. Overall, apart from the really rapid progression on Marshal, Solic’s progression this game has been pretty good.

Slight misread of Alice’s point here but I don’t think it’s too severe, it feels like a legitimate misinterpretation rather than a deliberate misreading.

More questioning, still don’t have much to say about this one.

This is in response to Marshal, who he was scumreading earlier. This feels aaaalmost like a response to someone that you actually expect to flip town, to be honest, which is weird because of how much he was scumreading him.

This is another one where I feel like any comment of mine is going to be a little biased, I’m personally reading Alice as town right now but I haven’t had the chance to Iso her yet.

To summarize, I’m reading Solic as a pretty solid townread right now, I think he’s very unlikely to be mafia based on his general arguments (which have generally seemed genuine rather than fakesolvey) and his progression. If he does turn out to be Mafia and somehow gets lynched rather than detonated I’d look into Kyo, based on Solic’s confidence that Kyo isn’t going to detonate him, but I think that’s really unlikely to happen. I really don’t think we should be detonating him at the moment and I especially don’t think Kyo should be detonating him just so that he can get ahold of Alice’s detonator, like he suggested earlier.

BlueStorm needs to be blown up quickly before he blows me wide open.
This is like a foodchain to be honest.

May I have your thoughts on Dat and Sulit?

Sure, do you want general impressions or full Isos? I’m more inclined towards the second, but it’s obviously going to take a little longer for that to happen.

Don’t think Blue/Derps is realistic being that I don’t think Derps would townread a wolfmate just for a single post like that.

Don’t think Jake/Derps is realistic either being that Jake is the latter’s top scumread and this doesn’t really make sense from a scum PoV.

I think Jake’s just town from his interaction with my PoE.

Latter.

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Jake is confirmed bd imo

Derp should be blown up for this. He’s pocketing Jake (town).

/vote Derp

This is jakes town meta. He gives up when he’s scum read. I don’t see him flipping scum here

If people really want Derp blown up, I’m happy to oblige, but I’m going to need more than just Kyo and Alice scumreading them to do it.

Not really a fan of Kyo’s trigger-happiness this game, to be honest.

That’s fine. I also don’t. But I would definitely not describe it as confirmed. That’s something a mafia would say as they know he’s already confirmed town.

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Based on how I know him to act, he is confirmed town imo