(Unlike most of my readlist, this one is ordered based on who holds whose detonator, rather than being most to least town-y.)
Alice - So basically, in order for Alice to be scum she’d have to have bussed both her teammates for towncred. I totally buy that she’d bus Blue here but I don’t think she’d risk immediately turning around and bussing Datbird, since that would put her in a situation where she needs to take on 6 town by herself. I could be wrong here, I know she’s a very strong player, but she’s a strong enough player that I wouldn’t expect her to need to rely on a double-bus, if that makes sense. Kyo was suspecting her and Marshal but Kyo also thought it was a good idea to detonate Solic, so I’m not particularly inclined to trust him at this point.
Hippo - I’m kind of eh on Hippo at the moment. We still haven’t seen very much from them, which would fit with the thread flow so far where there was basically no resistance or pushing on either lynch, even when Datbird was the second wagon, nor did we see much of any resistance to either detonation. The big thing I’ll note with Hippo is that they didn’t detonate Jake when Jake would’ve been a pretty easy LHF push/detonation.
Jake - The biggest point in Jake’s favor in my opinion is that they detonated Datbird. This was after the Blue detonation, so detonating Datbird at that point would’ve put them in a 6v1 situation (which is really bad to be in) rather than a 6v2 (which would’ve been a pretty okay position to be in). He was townleaning Datbird earlier but detonated them after Alice pressured him to, which honestly seems like a scumbuddy trying not to get outed via reluctance to detonate his partner, since scum often put other scum as townleans if they don’t want to make it obvious what they’re doing.
Notable things on his progression:
^This is the particular thing I want to draw attention to, Jake goes from ‘Dat is a townlean’ to ‘explosion time’ in three posts, which is an incredibly weird progression. The only thing that gets me about it is that it resulted in a Mafia detonation, if it resulted in a Townie dying I’d say Jake was nearly confirmed scum from that change in mindset. Jake is probably the scummiest living person right now.
Me - Putting this here because it’s important for detonator tracking
Sulit - So I actually take back what I said a few posts ago, they were pushing a Blue detonation from really early, well before it would’ve been obvious that Blue was an extreme lurker, I’m more inclined to townread them for the early push on Blue since I’d expect Mafia to wait longer before bussing. I’d put Sulit as a pretty solid townread here.
Wazza - So as far as I can tell the main reason to townread Wazza is the thing with Marshal, but personally I don’t like how immediately after he got townread for that exchange he basically disappeared from the thread. His progression on Marshal is also kind of weird, he repeatedly expresses strong intent to detonate Marshal and then doesn’t do it? He’s the second-scummiest person in my opinion at the moment.
Marshal - I’m liking Marshal here, in addition to the detonate his progression on Blue felt really natural, whereas I’d have expected that if he were bussing Blue the progression would be far less natural.
tl;dr, here are my thoughts on people from most scummy to most townie
Most scummy
Jake
Wazza
Hippo
Marshal
Alice
Sulit
Most townie
This puts us in a pretty good position in my opinion, basically unless I was wrong about Marshal/Alice/Sulit we should be able to just systematically eliminate potential scum and there’s not really a way Mafia can win, since they can’t win until they get to the final three and even then only if their detonator isn’t on cooldown. I totally get it if you want to start with me, I know the stupid misdetonation probably looked really bad, but for all getting mislynched is bad as a townie I seriously doubt that we’re going to manage to screw this up badly enough to lose.
