[FoL] EFoL 3 - Cult Wins

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#1282

I mean, if I’m just listing every remotely reasonable possibility I can think of:

  1. Priestess is EK trying to signal to evils that she’s EK. I don’t think this is likely, because I don’t think she would do something that’s considered an ‘obvious EK’ tell so early when evils are unlikely to kill her anyways (due to people scumreading her).

1A. Priestess is EK who scumread Magnus and is hoping to “prove” him by letting him heal her bleed. This one has enough dependencies that it seems unlikely.

1B. Priestess is EK hoping to draw healers off of important BD targets. Given the number of potential other protectives, this one also seems pretty unlikely.

  1. Evils are trying to frame Priestess by bleeding her so that people will think she’s faking bleed. This one also seems unlikely, since several people were already scumreading her, but if they have some reason to want her out – for instance, one of the starting evils is Royal Blood, and they want a king who knows who the other evils are – they might go with it, anticipating that people will find the bleed claim suspicious and want to heal her.

2A. Evils are trying to draw healers off of important BD targets. Given how quickly we jumped to ‘just let her bleed out,’ this one also seems unlikely, but it could be a failure to mold the thread consensus.

2B. Evils are either in her list of scumreads and panicking, or trying to frame someone in said list. (These are both things common in ToL.)

  1. Priestess wasn’t bled by the Cultseen. This could indicate a bleed by a Demon, particularly a Demon going for PK, or just going for getting the king out. I checked the Hunter classcard and it’s possible a Hunter could bleed the king here? They can’t in ToL, but the FoL classcard doesn’t say either way. Said Hunter shouldn’t claim it today if so, because they won’t be able to bear tonight, but they should claim it tomorrow.

Of these, I think the ‘demon who wants PK’ theory and the ‘Cultseen who wants definitely-Evil King who knows who the other evils are’ are both fairly plausible. It might be worth noting who steps up in a couple days, if indeed Priestess is dead.

#1283

Notice you gave a lot a reasons why she’s EK @Arete?

There’s a lot more evidence for King being bled as an EK move than scum actually bleeding King D1.

#1284

Honestly, the point about a royal starting evil should also be considered.

#1285

At the very least, I don’t think she did it as EK signalling, because at this point that strategy is such that anyone who does it automatically gets read as an EK.

…It just occurred to me that it’s also possible that she’s an EK trying to frame someone in her list of scumreads, who are actually all townreads, by making it seem like they panicbled her, but that’s another one in the ‘ridiculous number of steps’ category.

Also, I asked and FoL Hunter also can’t bleed the king, so we can eliminate that subtheory.

#1286

If scum bled King, regardless of alignment…it was an attempt to deflect the blame on someone.

Figure out who.

#1287

So someone from those potential Unseen could’ve either panic bled Priestess, or scum is trying to frame one of those.
I don’t think it was Magnus that bled her tho. Unless it was him hoping for a healer to spawn/ let the scumsidiness of the game carry him by staying alive.

#1288

Poss, you said you wanted to be starting King. What would you do if you were the King instead of Priestess right now.

#1289

It could easily be Magnus imo

#1290

Magnus has been acting relatively scummy

But the thing is, why bleed her when it outs you?

#1291

Trying to let us try to confirm him by letting Priestess get “healed” and buying time with that.

#1292

It could definitely be a possibility actually, it gives him 2 days to live.

#1293

And going by how scumsided this setup is, 2 days might be enough time to win for scum.

#1294

Even though I hate to say it as it conflicts with my strong townread on Soul:

It could have been Soul as he did get immediately accused by Priestess near the start of the game and later on accused by her again.

#1295

So let’s assume someone from the scum team bled Priestess for Magnus.
This could mean he’s a power role for them.
Starting CL or MM perhaps?
Or maybe a strong Unseen convert?

#1296

I think if it’s a cult game Magnus is an acolyte.
If unseen i think he’s the random one as they may have gotten a good class. my thoughts on that

1 Like
#1297

i would honestly sacrifice the MM if the convert was shit. Roll the dice on a convert. that’s what i would do

#1298

But you could just as easily sacrifice the convert, and arguably at less risk. (Though if the convert were a sufficiently strong player that could also influence the decision.)

#1299

No. I’m Phy.

#1300

Why should we trust you?

#1301

I was just answering a question.
You don’t have to.