You know how incredible hard that will be? Cultseen could even sheep on a BD d1 and even if we identify them by that, it might be already over for us.
Considering we have 3 scum 3 Neuts
6 - Lynchable targets.
8/9 - Bd that aren’t prince, priest or mystic.
1/2 - (That are)
1 - King?
If we do a no lynch it will advatage cultseen.
3 scum, 1 NK, 1-2 neuts.
There is a slight possibility of it being worth lynching a sufficiently scumsided neut (e.g. a Warlock with outed BD killers) but we pretty much have 4 targets we actually want to lynch at some point.
Keeping king alive is going to prove to be risky but I think if it’s ek we have basically already lost.
Neuts are safe lynches compered to bd that was the point.
If it’s EK, we can poison him D2.
We shouldn’t kill neutrals, since we have four evils we have to lynch.
I’m proving that it isn’t incredibly hard.
I’m also not saying “kill all neuts” I’m saying they are a safe lynch
of course if the neutral claim hasn’t acted scummy it’s better to not lynch them.
My point is No-Lynch causes us to waste a day.
D2 we might not even have any good leads or invest results and two bd maybe three are dead
What are you going to do then?
If we lynch a neutral D1, then assuming 2 nightkills D2 (so, no successful protection, but also no yoloCS/shooting, no 2for1, no multi-killing NKs) there’ll be 14 people alive. With a potential EK that makes 5 votes assuming there are no other forms of vote manipulation, which basically means that if they can coordinate and get 3 BD (or 2 BD and a second neut, or 1 BD 1 second neut 1 NK) to sheep with them, it’ll be pretty easy to get a mislynch. Add in two more BD deaths that night, we’re down to 11 people, there are 5 votes, 1 BD sheep-votes the wrong person or a scumneut exists and they just get numbers.
Obviously this relies on things like the NK not killing Cultseen, and all the kills going through, but it also relies on things like no one using 2for1, or yoloCSing and hitting the Prince, or any of the other things we’re wont to do.
Basically, what I’m saying is that mathematically, we probably shouldn’t be daylynching a literal outed Sellsword, let alone a neut that can side BD. Nightkills, sure, if you don’t announce you’re doing it ahead of time, but we need to spend our day lynch hunting Cultseen, and maybe the NK depending on circumstances.
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Of course it would be easy for us to misslynch I’m not saying that but by the time we start voting tomorrow we will have even less bd to vote for a scum if nk and evils kill bd.
So we will be even more likely to get manipulated, for a miss-lynch
we can’t be afraid of lynching because of being manipulated
Lets play sitting ducks and do nothing about evils.
Also yes we might get lucky that a invest finds something tomorrow but more then likely they won’t find anything.