Even with zero souls he wins if he keeps attacking the mastermind and the mastermind transforms to assassin
Amount of kp belonging to BD vs non-BD
BD has the lynch, not active d1. Games last until d4-d5. (0.75 kp)
It has guaranteed prince which has a theoretical average of 1-2 kills (on the lower side of the range likely) (0-.5kp)
Potential TK and Bounties muddle up that number. On average one of them will probably be rolled considering thereās three (hunter isnāt proactive, but has bleed). (0-.75kp)
I lowballed slightly considering the number is super variable
This also doesnāt count for protection
Townās kp on absolute lowball is 0.75
Townās kp on absolute highball is 2.25
On average, town gets ~1.40 kp
Scum kp (Unseen)
Conversion. Disables for next night. Cannot be done if three members already, and as such is highly variable. Highball is twice. Lowball is once. (0.5-1kp)
Assassin. Has one shot double kill. Highly variable due to protectives. Reasonable lowball is one kill, highball is 5 kills. (0.25-1.25kp)
Reasonable lowball is 0.75
Highball is 2.25 without accounting for bleeds
Average is 1.5
With just averages, town balances out scum with relatively close numbers. Town is far, far more swingy. This reflects in some games more than others.
Iāll note FoL 23 and FoL 17 (?) as the biggest examples of this.
NKā¦
Most NKs have a similar range to Assassin for kp, but with a higher floor since the majority have some level of strongman.
Possessor cannot exceed 1kp (.5-1)
Reaper bypasses healing naturally and can bypass night immunity. Lich has similar EV surprisingly. (.625-1)
Demon can multikill which creates a higher top end and has more consistent kills (0.75-1.5)
Sorcerer blows everything out of the water in terms of swing because of bomb. Idyllically, they blow up 4 players on n4 alongside a successful kill every night. All bomb targets have a chance of dying though. (0.75-1.75kp)
With these factors added to Unseen kp, suddenly the game sounds way worse for town
This analysis does not read too far into other abilities (namely offensives) that can also influence kp.
NK appears to be a problem
2 Likes
My math has a substantial margin for error, but I believe at least the rough numbers have some idea.
Ideally, a balanced setup has a 50/50 balance between town and scum kills, with a majority of kills from town being able to be manipulated.
Cult.
Conversion. Can be blocked by numerous factors. Does not suffer from limit problem. (0.75-1kp)
BoM. Hot garbage in comparison to conversion. The highball isnāt even good, as that relies on converts to not kill cult when killing. (0-0.5)
Cult is sizeably weaker than unseen in terms of kp.
Iām not sure if I have to show the averages to make it obvious.
Ultra highball Cult is only barely better than average BD.
A rework of some sort is in order to make the kills not nearly as shitty
Cult alts were for when blue dragon was confirmable and they needed to stop that from hindering the cult.
Itās not nearly as confirmable as now so we should just get rid of it
Funny enough I think the cult suicide thing for a kill was added to balance out cult confirming themselves and if we added the two kill things without killing cult the game would be unbalanced again
While it does suck to make a faction weaker with a larger faction size, we canāt change it without changing the structure of the game which would violate the basis of fol in the first place.
Btw one mechanic Iām really missing in FoL is being able to suicide as assassin, it screwed up my plans already a few times, since you canāt flee on this way from getting chain-occed or jailed.
I calculated that NK objectively tips the balance of kp between town and non-town off balance
Ergo it appears to be a problem
Generally speaking a good setup of any kind will have kp between town and non-town be somewhere in the 50/50 range.
NK greatly tips that number far in the nontownās favor, and in rare cases can literally match townās kp by themselves.