[FoL] FoL23 - Day 4 - The Unseen and the Fool win!

Forum Matches Forum of Lies
#1401

I agree.

#1402

Clear Htm based off Dat as well.

#1403

Top 3 remaining that he spoke with at all are Arete, Geyde, and me.
No one else with that he responded to with few posts.

#1404

There are also a whole host of people he never interacted with

#1405

Some were inactive, some weren’t.

#1406

Seems he only responded to me once.

#1407

I would move Poss out of the spewed by Dat zone since they only mention them in passing.
They still are fairly good though.

#1408

So let’s talk about possibilities for the Ozzkozz N1 check.

  1. Ozzkozz is a legitimate Sheriff, who legitimately found Datbird N1. I was definitely townreading Datbird yesterday, but based on the presentation of information and a pattern of N1 deaths consistent with an Unseen game, I do think this is the most likely options.

  2. Ozzkozz is a legitimate Sheriff, who unluckily hit a Scorned frame. I think this is very unlikely, as I think that a real Scorned would’ve marked SirDerp, since they were a very likely exe today, and if they’d marked someone else it would’ve been someone in the PoE.

  3. Ozzkozz is a Scorned making a Scorned play. I again think this is unlikely, since based on discussion yesterday they wouldn’t know that they needed to disguise someone as Assassin, and because, again, there was the easy mark on SirDerp sitting right there.

  4. Ozzkozz is starting Unseen (or Cult, if it turns out to be a Cult game) and making a suicide play. I’m elevating this substantially in likelihood because Ozzkozz is a ToL veteran, and the concept of suicide plays has come up a lot on the ToL Discord lately. This would be an awfully bold move, but if Ozzkozz was expecting to be the D2 lynch it might be worth it to take a BD down first. If it turns out to be this option, it’s worth looking into the ToL-veteran-FoL-newbie contingent as likely scumbuddies.

4a. Ozzkozz is N1 convert, making a suicide play. Suicide plays in ToL are generally regarded as a better idea for converts than for starting evils, particularly converts that in ToL as less useful (Handmaiden, Herbalist, etc). I think this is very unlikely because I don’t think Ozzkozz was a likely N1 convert.

  1. Ozzkozz is NK, making a ridiculously bold play. I think this one is basically impossible.

  2. Ozzkozz is a Fool, hoping to save scum from being exe’d by making sure a BD dies instead (and, presumably, that they get executed tomorrow, wasting another day for us) and chose a consensus townread to minimize the odds of hitting scum.

Of these possibilities, I think only 1, 4, and 6 deserve serious consideration, and 1 is by far the most likely, based on the presentation of the information.

#1409

…not sure what happened with the formatting here. Oh well.

#1410

Eh, so who’s exactly left as the MM candidate? So this clears Lymph, HTM, and Poss. Myself and Kape are out for obvious reasons.

I’m also clearing Ozz for obvious reasons as of now, especially as I don’t think Ozz would bus Dat considering that Dat’s a veteran and could have gone relatively deep

Here are the people who are left.

  • AreteSlashStars
  • Maxwell
  • Teleology
  • H_Hja
  • SirDerpsAlot
  • Frostwolf103 eevee
  • Geyde

Derps is meh for the same reason as you’ve said. Tele basically townslipped. So if it isn’t you and these clears are correct. Then the MM is likely within Arete/Hjasik/Eevee.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaybe Maxwell, but I think that’s potentially a stretch.

1 Like
#1411

Right, there’s also 7) this is a really weird bus (or reverse bus, if Ozz is hoping to clear Dat by being executed). I don’t think this one is likely either.

#1412

That would be simply wasteful

#1413

Why are you being so quick to clear Geyde? I townread him too, but he’s experienced enough that I’m not convinced that that’s a particularly meaningful townread.

#1414

In my eyes, I can only see 1 or 4a. 4a is the only optimal play for unseen.

#1415

I don’t see 4a because it would imply that someone decided to convert Ozzkozz N1.

#1416

I would maybe put it on starting MM doing suicide to pass the torch.

#1417

Because it’d be suicide for Geyde to clear MM suspects if he’s the MM himself.

He’s making the PoE for the MM extremely small with Dat’s spew, so I doubt he’d do this and get caught by his own PoE. I don’t see Geyde = MM being likely.

#1418

no, you’re wrong. The optimal play if Ozz was converted was to just not suicide.
Being without a 3rd player for 2 nights (1x in jail, 1x dead) is far worse than bussing a bd when you could have easily stayed hidden as marshal.

#1419

Wasting Prince time can be seen as worthwile.

#1420

Its a random convert, but an MM/Assassin is too valuable to make a D2 suicide play. Scorned would mark Derps since he was supposed to be bountied.