[FoL] Forum of Lies 27 - 10 day FoL (2/18) - Blue Dragon win

[Ami]

cool naked vote

[EVO]

@Ami

who wants to get hero shot

@Ami

damn who do you want me to hero shoot

This?

[Napoleon]

You don’t even understand who the fuck you’re dealing with. I have advanced degrees in statistics and computer science and I’ve created a simple program with an advanced algorithm that I’ve been working on for years. I have read and tracked over 600 forum mafia games, recording every fencesit, every association, every scumtell. I have over 50 documented, specific forms and versions of scumtells and towntells, and at this point I can just skim a thread and put it into my machine. I have reduced the cacophonous lies of forum mafia into a pure, beautiful mathematical formula, and it’s led me to literal hundreds of wins.
Why do I think you’re scum? I don’t deign to think about you myself. Instead, I thought about how to create a program to know mathematically whether you are scum. I don’t need to think about you, because my algorithm has determined that you are scum to an 87% certainty. You cannot beat those numbers at this stage in the game. We’re talking about a mere 13% chance that you are a town member so monumentally bad at this game that you fooled a computer program that has successfully identified over 500 unique mafia players as scum with over 96% accuracy. Your only defense, in other words, is that you are so naturally scummy that you’re an outlier.
Whether you’re town or mafia, this is a message from mathematics – you are bad at this game. You have played so scummy that a perfectly objective process has labeled you as scum. Whether that makes you bad at playing your specific rolecard or bad in general, there is no question that behaving like scum means you have not performed well. Consider this a welcome wakeup call, as hundreds have before you: If a player decides you’re scum, it’s possible you just got unlucky, but if a computer program can be that certain of your alignment, there are some serious holes in your game, because it means you’re scum in an objective sense, rather than a subjective one. For that reason, I’m willing to roll that die and take that 13% risk, because even if there’s a small chance you might be town, there’s not even a remote chance that you’re good.

[Napoleon]

My votes are never naked. Start doing something.

[Ami]

im sorry but turbo tax makes me want to fucking die

[EVO]

@Ami

adding my dex plus prof
thats a cool 21

@Ami

also my class is obvious if you cant pick up on it get fucking gud

Sounds like archer but that is too obvious for me to buy.

[Marshal]

@Vulgard

Day 2 is when it gets spicy.

@Vulgard

I have a plan. Since I’ll probably die night 1, I’m outing it right now.

Wagon both Possessed and Marshal tomorrow. Just do it and see how people act. These two have had a ton of interactions and they have been loud voices in the thread. Neither of them has to get lynched, but we should wagon both of them so we have information for backreading.

Then CFD to a wolf at EoD, preferably.

@Vulgard

Don’t hammer yourself. But I wouldn’t blame you for self-pressing.

I want to do it because it should give us some neat info. We are going to have three wolves tomorrow and wagoning two people like this might force some of them to out in some way.

@Vulgard

DryBones, Braixen, possibly EVO, maybe Ami, I’d say I’m suspicious of these people right now. I’m not gonna have time to elaborate further or re-eval.

@Vulgard

The amount of wasted emotions on both sides does make me suspect something like that. They are definitely not W/W. I don’t have enough confidence to call them V/V yet, which is why I’d like to see both of them wagoned.

@Vulgard

Poss/Marshal may possibly be V/V (like I said, I don’t really believe that, but it’s an option) but I don’t like how Luxy jumped into the argument and started dunking on Possessed. I don’t necessarily think it’s wolfy, I just don’t like it. Could be considered opportunistic.

@Vulgard

I’ve never been more glad about the day ending soon.

@Vulgard

EVO has been commenting from the sidelines all game. If I’m being allied, I’ll try to figure out overnight if it’s wolf AI for him. I have a feeling he encouraged a different con

@Vulgard

The one thing I would like to see in a case against CRich is a case where v!CRich and w?CRich (this game) posts are compared side by side, with key differences pointed out.

I might do it myself if I have time, but right now, I really think he’s just a villager.

@Vulgard

But I don’t think CRich’s posts have been any different this game? His motivation seems similar. In fact, I’d say he’s been doing a better job, because he has substantially more reads.

@SirDerpsAlot

Italy please Axe this

Posts like these are going to make me hate you.

@Vulgard

If Crich is not a villager, I don’t think he’s groupscum.

---

@Vulgard

I’m going to sit here and hold a few cards close to my chest.

@Vulgard

I’ll just say that I asked Gypyx about his alignment overnight and he said he was Psychopathic King. Very cool, Gypyx.

@Vulgard

@Braixen

There probably was a convert

Wow, no way.

@Vulgard

No, I was disappointed.

@Vulgard

I was in allies chat with Alice last night, for clarity.

@Vulgard

@Chloe

This post is terribly bad for it’s indirectness, for ignoring that Poss was jailed, and for the fact that there is no logical reason why the wolves would convert Poss rn if he’s BD

Note how Braixen decided to push the most obviously wolfy player alive as his first action day 2 without a second thought.

@Vulgard

@PoisonedSquid

as there anything important mentioned in the chat that’s safe to share here

Yes, I have 4-5 people I want to kill because I think they are wolfing.

@Vulgard

@SirDerpsAlot

Gut reading Alice as convert feels like her tone has shifted

She’s barely posted anything today, wtf is this fake read?

@Vulgard

To be fair, the progression follows, but the idea that you’ve been reading him as specifically NK for a while now is odd.

@Vulgard

I’m about to pull a Looming Threat where I pull out my readlist and dunk on three town who I misread as lockwolves.

@Vulgard

I think you’re a villager. I know this isn’t really an opinion about your post, but I’m not responding to it for a reason.

@Vulgard

/vote Marshal

I told you day 1 that we should wagon Marshal/Possessed after that horrendous EoD1 and I stand by that idea.

@Vulgard

I don’t think I’ll end the day with my vote on either of them but I do want them wagoned here.

@Vulgard

f either of them gets lynched when I’m not looking I’m going to hate you forever.

@Vulgard

/dayvig comcast

he just feels way more reserved.he wasn’t on for like the starting few minutes, potentially figuring things out, and then comes on wayyyyyyy more reserved. his first 5 posts in specific are such reserved posts and i feel like a guy who’s had a night of solving would be a little more confident.

[Marshal]

well yes, but actually no

[EVO]

Yeah it looks like a fake/half joking soft

[Chloe]

Aight i’m eating lunch so ive got a little time to spare. Albeit on mobile. Whats up dorks

[Napoleon]

That’s fine my vote stays on you until you convince me why it shouldn’t be on you.

[Marshal]

well no she had a legit soft

but uh i’m the only one to get it and i think i know why

[EVO]

@Ami

speaking of programming

i nee dto update AmiBot

@Ami

you arent in the warroom so you dont know what amibot is

Reference to “aimbot” I assume

[Marshal]

amibot is a bot ami made on the discord

[EVO]

OOooooo she made a bot?

[Marshal]

it’s a bot that’s primary purpose is to call me a bunch of mean names

yes

[Ami]

it can do such things as call marshal names!

[Chloe]

Nah she has a literal discord bot named amibot.

Also outting softs isn’t in our best interest. I’m pretty sure I know what she is as well, but d2 massclaim bad

[Marshal]

mindmeld

[Marshal]

i could out u right now boomer