[FoL] Forum of Lies 29 - OVER (9/18) - CULT FOOL WIN

[Centuries]

ok tbe gets to be town

[ATNoName]

I thought this is where I get some explanation for some of those reads, but you didn’t so my read stays

[TheBlueElixir]

so you saying for me to quote all of my reads wasnt a reaction test that I failed

i want to say something here but my mind is telling me what to say

@ATNoName

I thought this is where I get some explanation for some of those reads, but you didn’t so my read stays

cool

and your answer for most of them is just going to be ‘gut’ anyway, unless you actually ask for specifics

[ATNoName]

alright explain Arete, Appel and PK

[Leafia]

Right now my top scumreads are Vul and Centuries. Vul because he seems way too certain about two people in particular being town although he could be the Chancellor or the Mercenary with those two as his targets, so I don’t think a vote on him is a good idfea for now, even if we could vote today.

As for Centuries, he isn’t even trying to solve the ga,me and figure out who the scum is which I find a bit scummy. Him being town isn’t impossible though as he could just want to wait until D2 when we can actually vote to start making reads.

I’ll have my eye on both of them honestly.

[Centuries]

yeah whatever leafia is town

[TheBlueElixir]

appel and PK i remember

appel said theyd focus on 2 specific people and make reads on them

but didnt draw conclusions when they did that. When asked, they still didnt make conclusions. So, while it could just be an early game thing, id like for them to actually make reads

PK ive explained, its in the quotes you responded to

---

skims Aretes early ISO

their focus on Vul and way they analyze vul’s posts makes sense

they also dont feel like they have a narrow view and give reads when they make them and back em up

(yes I had to go back and check why I thought they were town)

[Leafia]

TBE’s look has improved in my eyes I think. They were a scumlean for me at first, although I can’t quite recall why, but now they’re a townlean for me.

[ATNoName]

Alright thanks, you’re cleared I’ll share my explanation

Kat and Chloe are T/T because their interaction between each other

Cent is obvious

Leafia was an early TR and later she prove that Town Alignment

I’m think Soul is a neut of some sort

Rn, I’m thinking Italy scum because his scum meta, but I don’t like to go by meta

I don’t have enough info to make reads on other people

[EliThePsycho]

is this a joke or something

@katze

A quick note about mafia theory and how I will play this game. Note that the arguments and facts presented here are indisputable, and that I will not engage in arguments about them, because those arguments are you wasting everyone else’s time about meta that is well and comprehensively established. Go make reads so we can read you.

I’ve reflected on my role and realized that there is a GOAT play for me in this game, and therefore I am compelled to pursue it. I am going to brute force my clearness immediately upon the opening of the thread.

I am hard-claiming, and I will never be rescinding. I am the JOAT. When it becomes prudent I will provide whatever the fuck a JOAT even provides.

Benefits:

I will survive tonight: I do not believe the wolves are able to kill me tonight, because it is so objectively unlikely that I would ever do this as the JOAT. I believe that this decision reduces the importance of cover to be provided by all of you to the point of it being negligible. The wolves have already been outplayed, as it were.

I’m lock clear: All of you already know I’m lock clear, because it is so objectively unlikely that I would do this as wolves. You know this for at least two reasons. First, this is the easiest, lowest-stress, lowest-demand game to play mafia in that I’ve ever played in (except for turbos). I have no need to complicate my life, as wolves, by open-claiming on thread open, when all I have to do is provide a C-level wolves game to probably win. This is the rare instance where you literally know that I have a billion other options as wolves, AND that I would pursue probably ALL of them before pursuing this. Second, I engage in FPS exceedingly rarely, which necessarily means that I know that this will look WEIRD and SHOCKING to you. There is no merit to an wolves play that instantly generates WEIRD and SHOCKED responses that I would be obligated to finesse and manage for the remainder of the game. As a villager, which I am, the burden is totally on you to not fuck up and lynch me. Makes my life super awesome.

There are only 14 players you need to try to read, rather than 15: I have already provided a “free” peek of me in a game with a mere 16 players. Our win equity is dramatically improved by my being entirely off the table for the entire game.

Conclusion:

The burden of sound reasoning is now entirely upon you. I am the JOAT, and thus a villager, and thus lock clear. The game is immediately simpler than it would otherwise have been, because of my decision. Now, let us enjoy that benefit and win the game.

Also, to preempt a lengthy and pointless discussion.

It is NOT dumb to ponder this post and convince yourself of its wisdom. That is your obligation as a villager, and I encourage you to think it over for as long as it takes to quell your (initially valid but ultimately unnecessary) concerns.

It IS dumb to, AFTER doing that pondering, conclude that I’m “neutral” or “scummy”. That is legitimately stupid, and I won’t entertain it. ONE of the reasons it is a stupid conclusion is that the upside of this play as wolves is absolutely DWARFED by the upside of this play as a villager. There is no equivalency between the EV gain for wolves-me in this position and villager-me in this position. They’re universes apart. That means I wouldn’t DO the poorer option of the two (by extension, wolves-me also wouldn’t BELIEVE that I could convince the entire game of the truth of these assertions for the entire game, which as an end-game wolves I would have to believe if this strategem were to be worth pursuing). A SECOND reason that conclusion is stupid is that the EV bonus of doing this as wolves is COMPLETELY DWARFED by my baseline mafia EV anyway. Anything that complicates my mafia life is RIDICULOUSLY stupid for me to do, given that my mafia life is ALREADY one of the smoothest, highest expectation mafiaing lives in mafia history anyway. A THIRD reason that conclusion is stupid is that you would probably have to worry about being EXPLOITED by this gambit in order to get there. However, I have NEVER engaged in this, or any similar, gambit in my entire career, meaning that if there IS exploitation to be had with this play, it is in FUTURE GAMES, not this game. For these reasons, pressuring me is extremely scummy and should not be engaged in by any villager, ever, in this game. There will be no less productive pursuit than that in this game.

Sucks for the wolves when meta is wielded this brutally, but my allegiance is plain and my strategy perfect. Get #rekt.

@TheBlueElixir

obligatory
last played game and what did you learn?

SFoL 62,

i learned… well, to not rely on mech info as much as regular ToL.

@Soulshade55r

I’m scared of talking because I’m scum

@Vulgard

@Leafia

Possible TMI already? Why are you so certain that Soul is town?

This looks really forced.

I’d have to disagree… but I also must ask, is this normal?

@Soulshade55r

Vulgard: Makes day 1 reads

Me: Duhhhhhhhhhhh?

err…
i thought you were supposed to make day 1 reads lol
not sure what he’s trying to say here

@TheBlueElixir

first hour of d1 is up

and it has alot more reads then ive seen in like most other d1s

i’d have to agree, how is there so many reads?

@Centuries

PK

ASSUMING WE HAD TO KILL SOMEONE RIGHT NOW

WHO IS LIKELIEST TO FLIP MEANIE

WHO IS THE BEST LUNCH

is this… aggressive? (probably a meme but yeah)

so, in a nutshell: full readlist, but most of them are just. null

everybody without a read is null

1. Italy
2. Chloe - why the heck are people SLing her.
3. Amelia - most posts are memes, as far as i can tell
4. Vulgard - i see people saying he’s a bad boy, and I’d agree had it not been for the fact idk if it’s normal.
5. ATNoName - his posts seem… off. not that I’d know anything about him being off, but they do seem wolfy from a general perspective.
6. PokemonKidRyan - posts where are you
7. PsychoKang - hey look it’s me
8. Katze - i had a read but i forgot it.
9. Arete - no speaky very important things…?
10. TheBlueElixir - town, so far.
11. Centuries
12. Wazza
13. Calculus - no followup, pls followup if you see this >:(
14. an_gorta_pratai - null
15. frostwolf103
16. SoulShade55r - same as lefia
17. Appelsiini
18. Leafia - posts seem… decently townie, but 80% null 20% very slight town lean. also is that priest claim a joke???

i feel like my tone changed. this is a problem.
devs fix pls

[katze]

@EliThePsycho

Katze - i had a read but i forgot it.

this is a villager

[EliThePsycho]

and what makes you say that

[katze]

if you were a wolf you would have made a read up

[Leafia]

Katze does have a point there.

[Arete]

@EliThePsycho

is this a joke or something

yes

it’s a copypasta referencing an MU game

[Calculus]

Here’s my list of potential mafia:

Katze:

@katze

I am hard-claiming, and I will never be rescinding. I am the JOAT.

A JOAT isn’t in this game though?

@katze

I’m lock clear: All of you already know I’m lock clear, because it is so objectively unlikely that I would do this as wolves.

No you’re not - this kind of argument is possible as scum.

@katze

That is your obligation as a villager, and I encourage you to think it over for as long as it takes to quell your (initially valid but ultimately unnecessary) concerns.

Is this player normally this mean/overbearing?

@katze

Hard-claiming Prince .
Never rescinding, never backing down.

This feels like trying to bait out for someone to claim.

@katze

fuck chloe might be a villager

What is this inane exchange?

Soulshade55r:

@Soulshade55r

I’m scared of talking because I’m scum

I feel like this is real scum trying to be light about it…

Vulgard:

@Vulgard

By the way, if there’s anyone who randed neut and doesn’t want to play neut, please openclaim now so we can kill you or yeet you tomorrow.

Mafia has to kill some neutrals, right?
So someone saying this would give them an easy win.

@Vulgard

I think these two posts from Chloe are super towny.

He lists two posts from Chloe that are… jokes? This feels like mafia trying to clear their partner.

@Vulgard

VV: Centuries, Chloe, Soul

If by “VV” he means “Very Villager” and is not using it as shorthand for a weird W, I don’t like his very insistent claims.

Amelia:

@Amelia

Clearly it’s calculus and frost because they didn’t post within 45 minutes :^)

Attacking people that aren’t here seems to be a very easy way of planting nonexistent suspicions.

---

@Chloe

Imma just point out that its been 2 hours since you said this

Sorry! Got distracted.

[Calculus]

@Arete

it’s a copypasta referencing an MU game

OH.

Darn ok.

[Vulgard]

@Chloe

TBE wolf

TBE probably not wolf again. I feel like when he actually does rand wolf, people are going to townread him. He gets wolfread all the time as town for some reason.
I think he’s been fairly villagery.

@Chloe

Leafia is priest

Can we not have claims on day 1

Thanks

…s e l f - r e s o l v i n g
To be fair, claiming that day 1 is >rand V, because it offers you no advantages if you’re wolfing. Leafia might be town.

@Chloe

Appel V
Cent V
Leafia V

Gorta probably V

I’m in the same mindset, really, except I’m not as sold on Appel as you seem to be. Why do you think Appel’s a villager?

@TheBlueElixir

weird thing

first hour of d1 is up

and it has alot more reads then ive seen in like most other d1s

I have no conclusion but this is indeed a thing

These posts from TBE are what makes me think he’s being his usual free-flowy villagery self. He’s just posting random takes all the time, even thoughts which don’t lead anywhere / don’t make sense, because he doesn’t care about whether it makes sense. He just wants to post stuff, valuable or not, and that’s what he does as V.

@katze

70% sure chloe is wolfing

I’m surprised you think that. I think her posts in her last wolfgame and this game have been like night and day.

In fact, I feel like you’re being oddly… careful this game? You do have takes, but you present them in a really quiet way and I find it surprising how you seem to be attempting to fade into the background. Even your meming is relatively toned-down.

Are you doing that to promote game health, or is there another reason you don’t want to stand out?

@Calculus

I have awoken!

I have a few things to say, and I really don’t like some people’s behaviors…

How do you do the thing where you show someone else’s message?

Slightly >rand V entrance, but could be coached.

@TheBlueElixir

but I dont like his reasonings

I’ve barely given any, so it’s not like you can read me based on reasoning. I’m trying to fix that right now.

@katze

towncore
katze

Hard veto.

@EliThePsycho

TL’s me while I literally have 2 posts

hmm yes thank you for the town lean

also it’s only been 100 posts you lied to me >:(

I’m reminded of Chuck in BfA for some reason.

@Leafia

Vulgard is one of those neutrals. Specifically the one that needs to have his two townread survive the game in order to win.

Bruh, if I were a neutral, I would self-yeet. Neuts out.

@ATNoName

Italy is a Wolf

Explain? The fact he’s engaging at all is a decent look. It’s not good engagement but at least he has something. Considering it’s day 1, that counts for even more.

@ATNoName

is this a w/w interaction

@ATNoName

why is chloe not answering then?

…Is this towny? Feels like a massive jump to a conclusion.

@EliThePsycho

(this message is a joke, I promise i will come up with more stuff… when I actually have something to say haha get baited)

Self-awareness 100.

@Chloe

Why did you feel the need to say this joke over not saying anything at all

Then saying you have nothing for us

Seems self-aware

Also, kinda this. Half-mindmeld.

@Soulshade55r

UwU

I suppose you’re the n1 kill.

@ATNoName

TR: Katze, Chloe, Centuries, Leafia

Progression seems all over the place, considering he suggested Chloe/katze being w/w a few posts before that. More likely they just don’t care about progression and are V, I think.

@Centuries

boring town

Yeah, but progression is so bad I think it’s villagery bad.

@Leafia

Right now it just feels that Centuries is trying to pocket Chloe for no reason too. Slightly scummy if you ask me. He’s just showering her with compliments here, like he desperetly wants her to townread him.

Why do your reads have to imply two people’s alignments instead of just one?

@katze

@EliThePsycho

Katze - i had a read but i forgot it.

this is a villager

@katze

if you were a wolf you would have made a read up

Disagree. Fake nonchalance is a thing.

If Calculus is new, I’m more inclined to TR them for their recent post especially. If not, I have to withhold my judgment.

[Leafia]

These are pretty good arguments. I like them, even if I don’t exactly agree with Katze being scum.

[Arete]

this post is not actively wolfy

which makes it probably your villageriest post this game