Forum of lies 11 (The Cult, The Alchemist and The Fool win!)

Forum Matches Forum of Lies
#583

Frost, here’s my take on this all.
Is it worse for us if we lynch fool today or tomorrow?

Let’s think now about probabilities:

  1. Mastermind/CL converting would only be stopped by hitting a non-Merc neutral (Around 2-3 per game), Prince or the imprisoned person. So stopped around 4-5 times / 15 (Approx 1/3)
  2. Assassin kill: Well 1/2 because of Unseen rolling instead of cult. And then around (1/17 (Total BD classes available x 10) for a phys then that / 9. 1/15 for Prince stopping it. 1/15 for it to have hit NK. So 9.934640519% chance their kill was stopped total if they did indeed roll.
  3. NK kill: Only stopped if hit MM / Alche who stoneskinned / Scorned / Other NK (It’s happened before) / Prince target. So 1/2 * 1/15 + 3/4 * 1/4 * 1/15 + 3/4 * 1/15 + 1/15 * 1/6 + 1/15 = 17.361111111% it was stopped

If MM/CL convert was stopped around 1/3 of the time, then there’s 2/3 chance that MM/CL has already converted. So killing Fool today would have less impact on us. We’d lose 3/4 people at most and that includes conversion.
If we waited until tomorrow then we might be allowing them even more kills and to freely convert / manipulate / kill as they please even more as there’d be less people so less possibilities on specific classes

#584

No, King can’t be voted until Day 4 even in FoL.

#585

It’s also better not to execute the fool at all, we just need to find one but then again - what is our other option excluding no vote?

#586

Where exactly is that in the manual? I may be blind

#587

Under any of the Kings, in Update Notes, 0.8.29 Patch.

#588

He did like 5 that I missed I’ll do a tally later.

#589

@Ashe so can Psycho king not start anymore in FoL cuz if he can combined with the no voting it’s dumb af?

For now imma /vote Pug but I’m still confident Moleland and PKR are evil. The fact that Mole is claiming Paly suggesting a Cult game after I said it was cult and PKR doubted that it was cult makes me even more susp of them both.

I would murder him rn but I can’t. Also making a joke doesn’t equate to trolling @PokemonKidRyan you cheeky hoe.

#590

Can you clarify a reason for voting Pug?

#591

He claim alch.

1 Like
#592

He may be fool tbh as his reasons were sketchy af so may be a nice way for Noz to confirm himself in second thoughts.

#593

As town, we can’t keep lynching neutrals.

All the Alch needs to do is survive.

Lynching him won’t make scum less.

#594

Frick it, /vote Mole

#595

Yeah. The only Kings that can be starting Kings are Good/Cowardly/Evil/Devout.

#596

OK, why?

@Hippolytus there’s no reason to doubt that claim rn

#597

There are some classes what he softclaimed for, either way he’s at risk getting converted.

#598

Besides the vote on Pug I’m starting to generally agree with Hippo’s stances.

2 Likes
#599

/Vote Insanity

Forgot to do that earlier

#600

Well I am useless right now so well,who do we vote guys insanity or mole?

#601

Read the thread, scum

#602

Fuck it

/vote the Mole

I claiming that he is being us and investigative would not claim this early with a useless “Neutral” result.