Isnt it better then to no-lynch? As test if its a Vortox?
Yes its a bit risky, but gives a lot of info
But then if it is a Vortox you just lose
Sure, youāll have a lot of info, but if the info is āyes, itās a Vortox game and you loseā then itās not really worth it in most circumstances
How is it not worth? Either you instalose, then the game is over and you can play the next. Or you get a lot of info.
I donāt get the logic. āyou might instaloseā is just a psychological threat.
In the long run itās definitely worth it. Yes you lose 25% of your games insta. But in the other 75% you have a way higher winchance.
Soā¦ when you no-lynch D1 you are only winning.
D1 reads are too bad to be very exact, so itās better to no-lynch (look just on your own D1 reads. They are always worse than randomā¦ later in the game itās easier to read, but on D1 you donāt have enough information ground to make an informed decision).
If you instalose by Vortox, you can immediately play the next match and therefore have more wins in a specific amount of time. AND a higher winrate overall.
If you donāt instalose, you have a lot of info and a way higher chance to win.
Sorry, itās just Maths and my lawful evil ability to turn the rules against themselves
this forum is how I heard about BotC which is in turn how i heard about a really great convention and made a lot of really great friends
now clocktower is returning to this forum for likely the only time for a very long time, so you can bet that Iām going to try very hard here
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I donāt think orange has any alts
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So this is wrong for a couple of reasons.
First, looking just at the factual question of whether itās optimal for your winrate to instantly lose a Vortox game, the game is balanced so that each Demon has approximately the same town winrate; temporarily assuming that itās 50 percent for the sake of being able to look at this with concrete numbers (in my experience itās slightly higher but not substantially so), this means that if you autolose every game with a Vortox, and Vortox is in 25 percent of games, then you need to win 2/3 of the remaining games just to break even ā and thatās assuming that the ability to assume thereās no Vortox is a substantial boost to your ability to win non-Vortox games.
Even if we assume that the ability to assume thereās no Vortox gives Good that much of an advantage, if youāre optimizing for winrate you could achieve the same result by playing each game under the assumption that thereās no Vortox; a certain amount of the time youāll still manage to win even in a Vortox game, and otherwise your winrate will work out equivalently to the scenario where you just concede.
Even if we ignore both of those factors, if the Pit Hag is in play, they can create a Vortox; the Storyteller will usually signal that the Demon type has changed with night deaths, at which point you can either no longer assume that thereās not a Vortox, or you can just do the same thing youāre proposing you do on D1, now with the added complication that the Pit Hag can just automatically force a loss.
But honestly I donāt actually think any of those are compelling compared to the fact that thatās not how games ā¦ work? If there were a button in ToL that, if pressed, would automatically (a) announce that it was pressed, and (b) automatically lose the game for BD if it were EK, I wouldnāt press it. I wouldnāt press it even if BD had a 95 percent winrate in games with a BD King who was known at the start of the game to be BD. If you just instantly refuse to play in a certain portion of the scenarios that can happen in the game youāre losing out on a substantial part of what makes the game enjoyable for most people.
