(Misc) Blood on the Forums 2: Electric Fang Gu Signups (Closed)

Isnt it better then to no-lynch? As test if its a Vortox?
Yes its a bit risky, but gives a lot of info

But then if it is a Vortox you just lose

Sure, youā€™ll have a lot of info, but if the info is ā€˜yes, itā€™s a Vortox game and you loseā€™ then itā€™s not really worth it in most circumstances

tries to decide whether to tell Priestess the Vortox workaround

am
i
the
artist
???

not that one

that one is super bluffable

and also countered by Pit Hag

How is it not worth? Either you instalose, then the game is over and you can play the next. Or you get a lot of info.
I donā€™t get the logic. ā€œyou might instaloseā€ is just a psychological threat.
In the long run itā€™s definitely worth it. Yes you lose 25% of your games insta. But in the other 75% you have a way higher winchance.

Soā€¦ when you no-lynch D1 you are only winning.
D1 reads are too bad to be very exact, so itā€™s better to no-lynch (look just on your own D1 reads. They are always worse than randomā€¦ later in the game itā€™s easier to read, but on D1 you donā€™t have enough information ground to make an informed decision).
If you instalose by Vortox, you can immediately play the next match and therefore have more wins in a specific amount of time. AND a higher winrate overall.
If you donā€™t instalose, you have a lot of info and a way higher chance to win.

Sorry, itā€™s just Maths and my lawful evil ability to turn the rules against themselves

i donā€™t really want to just instaconcede every S&V game with a vortox in it

:thinking:

this forum is how I heard about BotC which is in turn how i heard about a really great convention and made a lot of really great friends

now clocktower is returning to this forum for likely the only time for a very long time, so you can bet that Iā€™m going to try very hard here

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Neat :slight_smile:

Arete over here typing up an essay

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Who is @greenandblack5 ? is that ur alt?

Thatā€™s an eevee alt

Lel

I donā€™t think orange has any alts

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So this is wrong for a couple of reasons.

First, looking just at the factual question of whether itā€™s optimal for your winrate to instantly lose a Vortox game, the game is balanced so that each Demon has approximately the same town winrate; temporarily assuming that itā€™s 50 percent for the sake of being able to look at this with concrete numbers (in my experience itā€™s slightly higher but not substantially so), this means that if you autolose every game with a Vortox, and Vortox is in 25 percent of games, then you need to win 2/3 of the remaining games just to break even ā€“ and thatā€™s assuming that the ability to assume thereā€™s no Vortox is a substantial boost to your ability to win non-Vortox games.

Even if we assume that the ability to assume thereā€™s no Vortox gives Good that much of an advantage, if youā€™re optimizing for winrate you could achieve the same result by playing each game under the assumption that thereā€™s no Vortox; a certain amount of the time youā€™ll still manage to win even in a Vortox game, and otherwise your winrate will work out equivalently to the scenario where you just concede.

Even if we ignore both of those factors, if the Pit Hag is in play, they can create a Vortox; the Storyteller will usually signal that the Demon type has changed with night deaths, at which point you can either no longer assume that thereā€™s not a Vortox, or you can just do the same thing youā€™re proposing you do on D1, now with the added complication that the Pit Hag can just automatically force a loss.

But honestly I donā€™t actually think any of those are compelling compared to the fact that thatā€™s not how games ā€¦ work? If there were a button in ToL that, if pressed, would automatically (a) announce that it was pressed, and (b) automatically lose the game for BD if it were EK, I wouldnā€™t press it. I wouldnā€™t press it even if BD had a 95 percent winrate in games with a BD King who was known at the start of the game to be BD. If you just instantly refuse to play in a certain portion of the scenarios that can happen in the game youā€™re losing out on a substantial part of what makes the game enjoyable for most people.

@Arete what is the worst you have ever seen evil choke away a bmr game

I literally got out of bed and pulled up my laptop so I could write this wallpost :upside_down_face:

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LOL okay

Meanwhile I woke up an hour ago to start working