(Misc) Blood on the Forums III: Moonlight Badness (Good Wins)

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#5206

All possibilities have to be taken into account, no matter how unlikely and the possibility that I outlined exists and explains everything perfectly. No other possibility does that.

#5207

or
you can just do “lock vote”

speaking of which

/lock all votes
@Tangeld

#5208

@TheBlueElixir

convince me you’re town

#5209

Are you trying to make town lose here?

#5210

It do be Father’s Day so this is a really sucky time to have lylo

so the only possible scum team is oB/Leafia/Magnus/Amelia I believe?

Hmmm

Then there’s always gorta’s check

I will have to do more thinking :tm:

Eh

I dont understand the solve

So I’m just going to work with what I have

L1ght is Po

Lemme try to work backwards

#5211

You know this… isn’t a thing, right? The only way someone’s vote locks before it comes up in the order is if they spend their ghost vote and that vote gets locked (at which point their vote on every other nomination immediately locks to pardon, because they no longer have the ability to vote to execute).

#5212

Not possible

#5213

If Light is Po

then how did Gorta get a 1 on him and Italy N3

thinking face

#5214

Everything I’ve done to this point

Read it.

#5215

This is the solve. The most likely one. If you were the demon, Light wouldn’t be trying so hard to exe you. @TheBlueElixir

#5216

:frowning:
big sad

#5217

For example, Leafia’s ghost vote has locked in on Light, meaning that her vote on the nomination of Blue has been locked in as pardon because she literally cannot vote to execute anymore.

#5218

If TBE is Po, why does confirmed scum want him lynched? It’s because Magnus was the demon with Light as MM. He wants us to lynch TBE because he knows that if we lynch a town today, scum wins.

#5219

The other possibility is that TBE is MM or GF and magnus is Po, with oB being the other member of that pair

#5220

If TBE was scum with Magnus being demon, Light wouldn’t want TBE lynched because that would lose him the game. The only thing we can assume is that lynching TBE is a scum win. Otherwise, Light would be pushing Cheese.

#5221

it’s a textbook WIFOM

#5222

if we’re in Mastermind day with Amelia GF, selfkilling is optimal over killing Cheese because it means we have a 2/3 chance at random of executing a Good player (reduced to 1/2 accepting the Mason claim, but still) rather than a 1/3 chance

#5223

but I don’t know if GF Amelia figures it out, particularly if she doesn’t talk to her teammates

#5224

That actually makes sense. Although in that case, it’s far safer to lynch Light I think. Because we have a better chance of winning that way.

#5225

exactly
The only person she ever whispered who could feasibly be scum is oB for like five minutes early on day 1.
Her two neighbors are iron-clad locktown.