[Misc] Blood on the Forums IV: Glimpse of the Future (Evil Wins)

Not sure. I have a feeling Priestess/Apprentice/Mist’s slots might all be villagers because they aren’t playing the game. I could angleshoot Demon’s no-kill yesterday being because of inactivity, but I think that the host would rand the kill instead of having it skipped.
But, again, this is angleshooting territory. The more likely scenario to me is that the three people I listed are villagers who aren’t playing. I think that the Demon would try to at least do something here.

He claimed to me

None of those. I don’t really condone a shot today at all. I already feel pressured by having 2 very likely scum breathing down my neck that I want to be exiled tomorrow

I kinda feel like Hippo might be a wolf? He’s been flying UTR and I haven’t seen anything particularly clearing from him. He has been playing the game, but not gamesolving, and we desperately need some solving given the replacement spree and the lack of consensus reads.

I’d prefer some more explanation on that read.

Additionally can you unvote to exile me? If I am somehow quick-exiled Town won’t be able to gather enough votes for anyone to be lynched today.

/unexile Wazza @N.1 @Marshal

i cant tell if wazza doesnt believe me or missed this post

also wazza how did u rand scum again

  1. I read the post, forgot to respond.
  2. I was going to state I don’t believe you.

suit yourself then

shrug

Purely for the fact why would you claim to a random Traveller especially after being asked to claim publicly as you’re the only person who hasn’t claimed.

ill just say that im pretty confident they’re town

but it’s for a really weird reason

The perspective here is off. Hippolytus starts off the game hyperfocused on demon-related things instead of sorting people’s alignments out.

Also, this seems like an easy claim for a Demon to select, given the fact they have TMI on who’s a Minion and who isn’t.

That looks like a part of his claim. Regardless of his alignment, I don’t think he’d be calling his buddy “not the Demon” if he were the Demon. It makes things more difficult for him because he’s making it impossible to try and bus them / push on them later (since they are not the Demon and lynching them is not obligatory to a village victory).

And if Hippo is a villager, then obviously he’s telling the truth – meaning Napoleon is still not the Demon.

The guy just wants to kill people instead of solving. This seems kinda weird to me. Where are the village reads?

See what I said above about his claim. Hippo doesn’t write this post if Napoleon is the Demon being covered for. It forces him to vote out the Demon and lose the game (if he’s a wolf), or defend them and ruin his progression / claim in the process. If he’s a villager, the perspective here makes sense too. Basically, Napoleon is definitely not the Demon fmpov and I have more doubts about lynching him now, unless we’re able to confirm Universal by doing so.

The remainder of Hippo’s ISO is pushes on Italy and on Wazza. He doesn’t appear to be sorting out people’s alignments at all. He’s uninterested in the Mist/Priestess/Apprentice slot debate, in Icibalus’ potential shots, in anything really. The problem is that he tries to look like he’s solving, hence his pushes on the travelers. Which is why I don’t think it’s a villager who doesn’t care. There was also some obvious self-preservation there, albeit it’s almost too obvious and as such a weaker reason for me to suspect him.

I don’t think the slot has received much pressure throughout the game. That should change.

because i totally told him i was mechconfirmed good and he didnt know better

Considering their claim, this makes sense.

Honestly though this post strikes me as odd because Hippo is one of the players that should be fine with dying either way.

Hippo’s insistence on killing people instead of establishing a core we can follow is off, because we don’t really know who to trust. We barely have any consensus after approximately 4 thousand posts, and yet Hippo pushes on the travelers with confidence. Travelers are rather easy to push because they can be nominated at any time and because there is a good reason to remove them (the blockade of voting). At the same time, despite his apparent aggression, he hasn’t pushed on a single resident. Fear of backlash, perhaps? He did express self-preservation, despite the fact that according to his roleclaim, his death means nothing.

Mindmeld.

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@Vulgard remember to push on my exile tomorrow, I’m leaving the thread now.

Also, Hippo is one of the players who have posted some stuff and are present in the thread, but haven’t really been a leading force in solving. I think the game can be divided into three groups: people who try to solve, people who aren’t doing anything, and the in-between. Hippo is definitely a member of the in-between, and definitely wanted to at least look like he was solving. But I don’t think he was actually solving. If he were solving, he would be trying to establish a consensus, he would express some village reads, interact with people in more meaningful ways, and above all, he would be pushing people who are residents, not just the travelers. The focus on travelers is an easy way to look like you’re doing something because both alignments have a reason to vote them out you can latch onto, making your logic and progression seem natural.

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And by the way, I think I’m going to advocate against lynching Napoleon today. Read my previous posts, where I explain why. In short, regardless of Hippo’s alignment, his claim and declaration confirm that Napoleon is not the Demon, unless Hippo was malfunctioning. Napoleon is 100% guaranteed to not be the person we have to lynch.

I would be willing to lynch Napoleon if the Demon’s nightkill is mandatory. If that were the case, we could confirm Universal’s Vulgard claim by lynching Napoleon, Universal’s neighbor, and waiting to see if there is a nightkill tonight. If there is no nightkill, it means that Universal’s claim is legitimate and his role really is Vulgard (since nightkills would have been prevented, just like his role says).

This only works if the nightkill is mandatory, though. If the Demon can nokill, then the plan can be thrown out the window.

im 99.9% sure it isn’t

Well then, I would rather lynch Mist. His role is not the best, to put it mildly, and he has not been a terribly useful slot. Moreover, as I’ve said before, he has been doing his wolftell fmpov.

He may still be a villager – in fact, I’d say he’s 60/40 W/V, or even closer to 50/50 – but it’s still better than 100% not the Demon, as is the case with Napoleon.

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