[Misc] Blood on the Forums V: Ides of Blood - Good Wins!

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#1203

Hello. I’m getting back from lunch and checking back on the various game threads. I haven’t had a chance to read everything here, but I saw this ping and thought I’d start here.

I think that was after I talked with Tan about my role and then later with Light to tell him my claim and ask about who to check. I had seen GGhana in the thread a lot and socially read him as town, so I wanted another opinion from him. I had seen where GGhana mentioned that he wasn’t hundred percent sure on Light’s claim, which seemed reasonable to have a certain amount of suspicion. So I wanted to see what GGhana thought about Light and about other people to check.

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#1204

Ghana’s been really socially townie to me, he seemed to be making genuine attempts to solve given the info that he had (and also a big thing, he was compensating for new info in ways that made sense). On the flipside of that, there are very strong mechanical reasons to doubt him, both my info being wonky and PKR’s Minion ping.

Whysper felt very socially genuine to me; that whisper you noted between us, she asked me if Bloodletter was worth using because of its bloodying people, which didn’t seem like a consideration someone would make if bluffing Bloodletter.

Intensify felt weird to me before the EoD2; despite the Warrior claim, they didn’t really seem to be doing anything to make evil want to kill them (I actually had to straight up tell them that they should be doing that sort of thing in that whisper you logged), which made the Warrior claim feel more to me like a reason not to die.

And you feel townie for the comprehensive attempts to gamesolve, but the previous owner of your slot being so quiet is strange, particularly when they had info saying the clockhand was good N2 while Soothsayer got a Demon ping.

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#1205

Should I wait to tell Light my info in whisper? Or it looks like everyone is just openly giving info now?

#1206

In conclusion, my strongest social reads are

Ghana town
Whysper town
Intensify scummy

And while mech info’s a mess right now, the strongest mech info we have points to Ghana being lockscum and Whysper being very likely scum, which is why I’m so damn lost right now.

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#1207

I see above that there are calls for open claiming, so I’ll assume I should do the same now and not wait for Light.

Light had asked me to check on Cloned. Actually I guess he expected me to do that N2, but I had checked Silviu instead based on a discussion with GGhana. Anyway, he asked me again to check on Cloned. I came back with a result of Evil on the Bloodletter check. So I guess that means either he really is evil and so he was making up his claim. Or I’m malfunctioning now and Cloned is really good. Or malfunctioning both nights, so Silviu is actually evil?

#1208

I actually claimed to Light

#1209

(also Reveler)

alright

considering now town!Whysper worlds

could she be town getting true info?

technically yes, but I kind of doubt cloned would kill himself like that? maybe if he were the Effigy (which would make Magnus scum, not sure if that’s a coherent world?)

Right Hand Man: no (Light is unCC’d Wicked)
Eclipse: could cause town!Whysper to malfunction, kind of unlikely FMPoV since she’s claiming true info on me N1

Viceroy: would be Magnus based on seat positioning, seems like a kind of weird world since then someone else is secretly an outsider modification demon (or Light is a really gutsy wolf I guess)??? actually yeah that doesn’t work because we had 2 deaths N3

Retrogradus: only affects the first night

Bogman: could technically affect Whysper if she or Magnus were the clockhand, but that doesn’t explain cloned + GGhana claiming there’s a Retrogradus

Reveler: not possible

IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION:

If we look at cloned/Whysper V/V worlds, that means that cloned would have had to have been malfunctioning N2, and Whysper would have had to have been malfunctioning N3. I’m pretty sure the only way this is possible is if one of them was Eclipse poisoned for the whole game, and the other one was Viceroy poisoned (cloned can’t have been Viceroy poisoned in town Whysper worlds because she’s above him)

this means that cloned and Whysper are mechanically thunderdomed (in the sense of never being V/V, not in the contains-the-Demon sense)

someone please double-check this but I’m pretty sure it’s right

#1210

and of Whysper/cloned I trust cloned way more because of the whole ‘being dead’ thing (which also means that, if cloned is a Minion making a galaxy-brain play, we would get another chance to get the Demon, since we wouldn’t be going into D4 with three living evils)

#1211

can someone please double check my work here (especially the thing about cloned/Whysper not being able to be V/V)

#1212

this mech stuff confuses me

#1213

that’s understandable, I can try to explain it in a less confusing way once I’m more sure of the mech

since Tan is claiming to have checked you as a Minion, would you mind claiming publicly?

#1214

Truth detector:

100%. Wouldn’t lie about something like this

Can this be true? Who would be the one malfunctioning them?

Clockhand: gorta or intensify is the demon, depending on GGhana
Eclipse: Lol
Viceroy: Magnus would be viceroy

But:

For me to get Whysper retrogradus, we would have some worlds:

  1. Exactly intensify Retrogradus
  2. clockhand on evil; we would have the demon and a minion next to each other. If we assume that no minions are dead, it means that demon would be exactly Magnus

So in a V!Whysper world, we would have:

  1. intensify retrogradus
  2. magnus retrogradus with gorta minion?

both of which i feeel less likely

#1215

…oh right, Soothsayer malfunctions if they or an evil player are the clockhand

now I feel dumb for writing a whole long analysis post about whether cloned/Whysper could be V/V that completely missed that highly relevant fact

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#1216

(although unless I’m malfunctioning the clockhand has been on good, so FMPoV the ‘clockhand on cloned’ worlds are the only ones that are relevant)

#1217

She checked Silviu and got them as Town.

If that’s the whisper I remember, I whispered them to get her to check Magnus

@Whysper what did you get last night btw

#1218

why the hell did you check Cloned?

I literally told you that makes no sense.

#1219

You said you were going to check Magnus? Why did you check Cloned? Cloned was ObvsTown

#1220

OH NOW EVERYONE LEAVES WHEN I ARRIVE

ISNT THAT JUST GRAND

l,;mklnc dsdddvdvaddv

#1221

whysper not checking magnus or whoever tan/intensify wanted them to target (IIRC, Intensify and Tan wanted her to check someone who is not cloned) feels like a demon knowing that if they say an alive player is a demon would cause a thunderdome so theyre just trying to discredit a dead player/look like theyre malfunctioning

but whysper has been acting so townie my brain cantle handle this as a possiblity aaaaaaaaaaaaaa

#1222

also btw, on my bogman theory

basically the only world where that works requires Arete and PKR both be evil (since he’s claiming chieftan) and since gorta has been minion pinged that world doesnt make sense.