I have to guess whether you have a Contessa or a Graverobber now.
Graverobber is lower odds considering the flipped cards.
I think you would have taken Jane’s bearings otherwise, because you could coup again after that… we both had low coins, except App could assassinate potentially. I and maybe you already guessed App would keep a Contessa around to ward off attacks when he was gathering information, so there was less of a need to be scared of that. Then there is annoying Captain math. I believe that you believed I had one when we made our wager, so that paranoia can be real enough. I could steal once from you before you could coup me and you’d just earn your money back. You would start at 11, even with 2 Captain claims, would be able to coup again, and then have 6 coins. It’s true, that option is a possibility for not claiming a Graverobber… It’d require you to think that Apprentice had a Duke and a Captain though, which is an unlikely pairing to want to keep in endgame. There is also the fact you didn’t say Graverobber, but gravedigger supporting that you don’t have one.
Overall you are more likely to not hold one I believe… and if not, well gg and at least the game is over already then