NFoL5 (5/16) - Endgame - BD, Merc, and Strigoi win!

[Marluxion]

oh or you lying about being roleblocked
that also could have happened

[Marluxion]

also yellow being cult king is the only logical explanation for why no bleeds have happened yet

the ONLY other explanation is if they’re holding the bleed to frame me so people can’t clear me from my wolf

[Marluxion]

also
Marshal dying means the cult dont have a second ritualist probably

If she attacked me and knew i didn’t die, she would have checked the hunter card so she’d know i bear’d.

[Marluxion]

unless they got another ritualist last night
that isn’t unlikely
especially with the threat of my wolf coming today

[Marluxion]

nap prob most likely convert in that case

[Marluxion]

who was the other allies target?

[katze]

@Marluxion

also yellow being cult king is the only logical explanation for why no bleeds have happened yet

the ONLY other explanation is if they’re holding the bleed to frame me so people can’t clear me from my wolf

I think there’s a few other valid strategies, but it means more than anything that the Cult Leader isn’t concerned about dying at night, probably.

Which… eh. There’s not much BD killpower.

I just thought of one other thing that strongly implicates Yellow as BD King, but I kind of want to save it for now… if I’m wrong, I don’t want to give them an out.

If you really want me to say it now, I will, but I do think I’m in the right to withhold this for now.

@Marluxion

If she attacked me and knew i didn’t die, she would have checked the hunter card so she’d know i bear’d.

Probably correct, although a Marluxion <-> GreyDragon debauchery isn’t… that unreasonable to do, imo. One I’d probably do.

@Marluxion

nap prob most likely convert in that case

Napoleon being converted is kinda WIFOM. This is short for “Wine in front of me”, and is a reference to this scene from The Princess Bride.

Mostly because the fact that Napoleon could be converted without any protection was public information. It couldn’t be stopped, so it’s both the most free but most obvious target.

@Marluxion

who was the other allies target?

Marshal/Napoleon/Yellow on N2

I presume nobody on N3

[Marluxion]

@Napoleon talk to us about the allies chat

[Marluxion]

@katze

I presume nobody on N3

and why might that be, katze?

[katze]

because silviu was quickhammered

[katze]

lol, backreading

I can’t believe we killed Aelin

Hindsight is 20/20 obv but their claim was like, absolutely ridiculous to do as anything that wasn’t merc

@katze

wolfy player claims benign 3p after a string of incredibly wolfy posts

if i don’t tunnel this, she’s gonna endgame and be a wolf

so

die

wtf past katze why did u do this

@EliThePsycho

/vote Aelin @chloe @arete @datbird
boom bye neutral

@EliThePsycho

his is a joke vote
and also an RT if you want to think of it that way
/unvote @arete @datbird @chloe

@Marshal

Ok but i’ve looked at literally all of your reads and tried to track the progressions but most of them are just thrown out there

I can’t see any internal working through or changing of reads. I’ve been very fair when reading you, don’t you dare say it’s “bad faith”. The amount of reads you have are low and they are rarely ever expanded upon later.

That’s the difference. And i’ve seen you do just that in your towngames, the ones i’ve played with you. So I know you are very capable of calling back on and changing reads. And yet you aren’t.
That coupled with thread seemingly giving you no flak

I think you fit the bill as a wolf. And yet you don’t see me pushing this extra hard. This isn’t my game to do that.

But if you’re going to attack my read integrity I will bury you with the fury of a thousand suns and will not look back once.

@Marshal

This is all I have to say on the matter

Now i’m moving on to why aelin’s claim is full on pepega

@Marshal

You have 0 level of development in your reads. None. Nada. Zerooooooooooooooooooooooo.

It being d2 isn’t an excuse. When you gonna start? D3? D5? Day 20?
Outta here with that.

I’m gonna drop this. I don’t want to flood thread with this but if you try me I will have no qualms doing exactly that. You can, like, actually start doing that instead of accusing my reads of being bad faith because it’s one you don’t like.

Rereading these posts kiiiinda felt like Marshal holding punches back on min? Like, at the surface, it’s not completely clear. If you read the words without reading the intent, you might call that a crazy claim.

My concern lies in the fact that Marshal is very quickly trying to move on from min, to bury a Neutral claim over someone she allegedly scumreads.

The words in green are the ones that feel like Marshal is trying to retreat out of this, while the ones in red feel like they’re there to give off the impression that she has actual intent in getting min killed. The one line is yellow is the one that’s giving me more pause, cause I kind of believe that regardless of mins alignment that she might be holding back due to the game.

@katze

marshal im shielding min for today

you aren’t getting them voted

@Marshal

To be frank I do not have the patience for the “Oh guys ur v/v!!! lmao im so quirky lets all be friends” that you like to pull

Tell me why min is town or buzz the hell off

@katze

@Marshal

that you like to pull

i don’t think i even do this that often

but given i just hosted a game in which min wolfed in, watching them play, seeing their posting

i think their subconscious depth of thought is much deeper as a villager (in smaller words, i think they have thought processes as a villager they don’t even notice they’re having, which is missing from their wolf game)

also my soul is just saying they’re pure af lol

@Marshal

seeing as I just played in that game and spent hours combing through their posts and doing everything I could to understand the inner workings of min and their alignment i’m going to have to defer to myself here

Realistically I respect your read
If you really really don’t want me to bury min today I won’t
but I’m entirely unconvinced

(For the record, part of my read on min here was that I thought they were Prince)

I feel like Marshal kind of takes the out I give her here in a way that would reinforce my last thoughts, but… her first reply to me has this sort of genuine annoyance that makes me think that I’m wrong and that Marshal was just trying to shade V!min.

Meh.

moment.

[katze]

@Marshal

Originally it was the latter but the more I look at it the more I think min is just a wolf.

I’m still not going to strongarm it, i’d be dissapointed in myself if I did, and it’s not realistically lock.

but I’d put min’s chances of being BD at, like, 15, maybe 20%

God, this is egregious looking back.

“Yeah, I think min is almost always non-BD, but I’m going to bury this Merc claim over them.”

[katze]

@Marshal

and also will have no action until night 4

So uh. Pretty sure Marshal was never a Squire. Just an honest to god scumslip right there.

moment.

Would be hilarious if PKR was a wolf as well, and both wolves misunderstood Squire.

@Marluxion

Marshal and Napoleon cannot both be town

@Marshal

whats the thunderdome

@Napoleon

me and you

i trust marluxion

@min

Parity check by marl

@Marshal

isnt he hunter

Going back to “Marshal and min are unaligned.” from this.

@Marshal

Well I strongly believe both marl and napoleon are town so

: |

who was the n1 and the n2

My initial reaction was “Oh, and Marshal is probably not wolves with Napoleon, either.” but… maybe they’re confused because they should have appeared as the same alignment?

Hmm.

Nah. I don’t think they’re both starting, and I think if Nap was the N1 convert that Marshal prooobably doesn’t die to the bear?

…probably.

@Marshal

Napoleon
Marl
katze

go in the napoleon and marl zone

Why am I in the Marl/Nappy zone I’m not Nappy or Marl!!!

---

With Marshal flipping wolf, and very likely being the starting Ritualist – I’m currently very unsure how I feel about Napoleon and Marshal keeping up the argument under the assumption Marl was a Princess. Despite it being very obvious he was not one.

Kind of think it’s another point for them not being W/W, which wasn’t my first impression, but I think Marshal would try to drop it entirely if they were both wolves, or go for a hellbus on Nappy. They seemed a bit stuck in the headlights, instead.

Shrugze. I’m going with my brain and saying Nappy isn’t a wolf as of Day 3. Can’t speak for N3 convert.

[katze]

Oh, and Windward is definitely a villager on D3.

I’ll stop for now, you’ve been typing a while!

[Napoleon]

@katze

Currently tinfoiling Yellow as CL King.

Okay guys I townread Yellow and I was going to justify it.

And I realized that I was probably giving Yellow a bit too much credit for some of the reads I was explaining. Basically I remember liking their Day 1 and early Day 2 but I completely forgot what I liked exactly and tried to find posts to remind myself why I liked them and it didn’t connect for me.

But I still think they are Town because:

1. They don’t feel like they are coordinated with Marshal. This is kind of a bit hard to explain as most of what I remember comes from Allies chat.
2. More importantly, I think Marshal clearly intended to pocket Yellow and I feel strongly about this one. Working through a thought process of both a V/W and W/W I think the former is more likely and I think a lot of Marshal’s posts showcase this

@Marluxion

@Napoleon talk to us about the allies chat

I’m gonna try and keep this description as much as possible whilst not putting any conclusions here.

The first half of allies was just me and Marshal, Yellow wasn’t there.
I suggest Appelsiini as an OE target, quite firmly, in fact and Marshal agrees completely.
Then we just talked about a bunch of other players. Ask if you have any questions about any specific one.

Then Marshal leaves thread.
A while later it’s me and Yellow in the thread.
We talked about Appelsiini being the OE target.

Then I talk with Marshal again while Yellow is outside thread but for EoN we are all there. I don’t actually think there is anything meaningful in this conversation so I’m excluding the details, but if you’re interested you can ask.

I think one thing to mention though is that it never seemed like that Yellow entirely understood the reasons why I and Marshal “suspected” her. It seemed more of a sheep than actual belief in the execution. Yellow seemed to suspect players like GreyDragon and ATN more.

[Napoleon]

@katze

I’m currently very unsure how I feel about Napoleon and Marshal keeping up the argument under the assumption Marl was a Princess

That was Marshal who was operating under that assumption.

[katze]

Not gonna lie, I expected more after seeing you typing for a solid hour.

@Napoleon

More importantly, I think Marshal clearly intended to pocket Yellow and I feel strongly about this one. Working through a thought process of both a V/W and W/W I think the former is more likely and I think a lot of Marshal’s posts showcase this

Which posts do you think indicate this?

@Napoleon

Then I talk with Marshal again while Yellow is outside thread but for EoN we are all there. I don’t actually think there is anything meaningful in this conversation so I’m excluding the details, but if you’re interested you can ask.

I’d be willing to hear more about that conversation. Maybe keep it concise, and I can ask for more again if anyone sticks out?

@Napoleon

I think one thing to mention though is that it never seemed like that Yellow entirely understood the reasons why I and Marshal “suspected” her. It seemed more of a sheep than actual belief in the execution. Yellow seemed to suspect players like GreyDragon and ATN more.

nods head

Noted.

[Napoleon]

I also want to address the fact that her argument that she wouldn’t claim Ritualist block as it was risky.

But that’s fallacious in the sense that Marshal’s argument boiled down to “Well this action is dumb so I wouldn’t do it”, implying that because she said she wouldn’t do it, she wasn’t scum…

But if it was so dumb… then why would I do it? Because I did the same thing and claimed Rit blocked The fact remains that it was done by one of us and we cannot take anyone’s word for why it wasn’t done.

Sorry katze I’ll get to your points

Anyways not an important thing to say but this is a matter of pride so i had to say it lol

[Napoleon]

@katze

Not gonna lie, I expected more after seeing you typing for a solid hour.

yeah that’s because i deleted a bunch of stuff i was writing over and over again lol

its late in the night for me my brain is working a bit slow rn

[Napoleon]

@katze

@Napoleon

More importantly, I think Marshal clearly intended to pocket Yellow and I feel strongly about this one. Working through a thought process of both a V/W and W/W I think the former is more likely and I think a lot of Marshal’s posts showcase this

Which posts do you think indicate this?

@Marshal

Yeah actually this is extremely extremely villagery

@Marshal

You suck Napoleon I have a new top villager

@Marshal

@Yellow

Marshal: He has been helpful and trying to play and solve the game and has been interacting with people. In contrast to this, Katze seems like their only objective is to help the newbies. They aren’t trying to solve the game as much as they are concerned for the former thing.So I think that kind of makes me feel good about Marshal and not so much about Katze, as of now.

Napoleon: [I’m quoting the posts I promised you right after this one] I think they are expressing themselves without much thinking, and I think that should be the way if you have nothing to fear about, or have nothing to hide. I feel good about this player.

ATNoName: I couldn’t understand how they could make such fast reads on player. I’m assuming they are more or less guessing, if not then I think it would be helpful if they shared their thought process with us. But it would be suspicious if they continue to provide no explanations.

Pokemonguy: At first I was thinking that person was relying too much on Marl, but I got a second wind when I read the later posts he made. They felt chill and at ease, somewhat like Napoleon. So, I think I am getting better vibes from them now.

P.S. I’m not sure about the pronouns I’m using, please correct me.

This post is good
It’s just good

The difference on read of me/katze is just pure, a comparison type of read is very unlikely to come from newb wolves who are trying to fake reads because they’ll usually have the read in mind before, but comparing/contrasting me/katze comes from a villager who’s absorbing thread first and making reads second

ATNoName read is just a solid type of read that makes sense for them to have

Napoleon read is probably the best one here, unless they’re being coached and fed these reads directly it’s a very observant type of read and the connection made is just unlikely to come from wolves.

Yellow is veeery likely town
I can’t lock it in cuz I’ve never played with them before but they are almost always just towning it up

^^ Key terms “This post is good. It’s just good”

@Marshal

@Yellow wanna be king

@Marshal

Marl is still like
a whatever king

but I’d honestly far prefer yellow
or myself tbh so that I have the kill in my hands even if I die

^^ Putting down Marluxion so Yellow can be King. I think Marshal truly believed that she wouldn’t be able to properly influence Marluxion’s OE if he were crowned. This post though could be for Yellow being either alignment though but I do think it’s indicative of why Marshal might not want Marl to be king, from a wolf perspective. I say this because I think Marshal very well wanted to be able to influence the OE.

@Marshal

christ almighty

well whatever
I would still rather yellow be kinged atm

they are nearly lock clear in my eyes

@Marshal

I strongly doubt yellow is prince for reasons that I utterly refuse to explain

@Marshal

king them
possibly against their will

@Marshal

God yellow is so villagery

@Marshal

they are my favorite newbie

@Marshal

I’d also like to be in allies if possible