Good suggestion
Post it in the tol cord
:^)
No. He does not need to know anyone. You just need to go “if I was an assassin/NK/Sellsword/whatever what would I do right now?” and then do whatever that happens to be. Obviously you cant do the night portion, but you CAN do the day portion, and that day portion is the part where scum reading happens.
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Win-rate is a great way to compare the skill of players. It’s diluted but that doesn’t mean it isn’t objective and the best measure we’ve got.
“it’s a great way”
one sentence later
“It’s diluted”
if a measure of skill can be diluted its not a great way to measure skill no?
Proceeds to call a random player death immune and watches with a sinking feeling as they are revealed as the mastermind.
You definitely do need to know who is who as fool in order to pretend to be scum. Day 2 every player has close to equal chances of being BD or not BD (once you eliminate confirmed players), so you do actually have to make a calculated decision who to accuse in order to ensure it makes you look like a scum and not a fool just rolling dice.
which is exactly what a sellsword will sometimes do and for the exact same reason.
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this situation can generally be dismissed if you greatly cut down on the amount of psuedo-investigative feedback
but thats beside the point
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Great way to compare the relative skills of two players (whether one is better than another) but without not necessarily a way to determine their absolute skill because of the unknown dilution factor.
Since someone with 70% win-rate is probably far better than 70% of players (probably better than 99%). But they’re still obviously better than someone with a 65% win-rate.
Like a logarithmic scale.
I have a 70% winrate
I have played 10 games
I have a 65% winrate
I’ve played 897298357918274898 games
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Only bad Sellswords will get a random executed Day 2 since you’re just as likely to kill an ally. They do it because they haven’t considered the numbers, they think there are more hidden BD than there actually are. If they took a minute to count on their fingers they wouldn’t do that.
Since you keep bringing up winrates as a metric of skill, do you mind sharing yours?
Assuming 2 deaths and 1 convert N1 there will be 4 hidden scum, 1-2 neutrals and 6-7 BD.
You aren’t going to get worked up about lynching another neutral, so it’s only a 1/3 chance that an accusation backfires solely due to accusing a scum.
Remember that you aren’t lynching yourself and you aren’t accusing the King, so thats the 3rd neut slot accounted for.
If we don’t assume a successful convert/kill then the odds just go up from there.
even lynching an unseen convert isn’t the worst thing ever
less optimal for cult converts tho
I only edited it into my post later but I’m also accounting for the 1-2 BD that are too confirmed to accuse.
Something strange is it says I have 3427 wins and 6643 games (51.7%) but only 5331 games are listed and counting the ones where IS_WINNER == true my winrate is only 46.86% implying that my winrate for my first 1312 games was 56.54% but has fallen almost 10%.
What.
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I’ve heard there are some weird bugs with early matches, Tele says that adding up values that should sum to total games played in her GDPR data doesn’t give the same value that it gives for total games played
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